I spent ten days in SC around Thanksgiving. Non stop Steyer ads and I mean non stop. Biden is going to steamroll SC and being a red state in the general election, it’ll be a triage state for most of the other campaigns. Spending in SC was what killed the Harris campaign.
No idea what to think about Nevada, second most difficult state to poll after Alaska. It’ll come down to who Harry Reid supports behind the scenes, the unions, and the results of IA and NH.
According to this panelist on The Hill, Steyer spent more money in ads in Reno and Las Vegas than Bernie Sanders did across the entire country. He outspent the next closest candidate in SC by tenfold. That may have affected the polling.
Not getting that CarnalK. The previous head to heads more than year were useless and failed to even be predictive of now. Now, less than 10 away, is still worth little but is less worthless.
I admit I hate national polls and particularly in this election cycle where we’ve got the billionaires bombarding the airwaves nationwide and Bloomberg hasn’t even been on a debate stage.
New and last DMR poll on Saturday. And, finally we are going to get some actual votes so I think the national polls will look different in a couple of weeks.
Buttigieg and Warren both need a first or a very strong second in IA and NH to break out finally. A weak 4th pretty much would doom either of them. It sucks for Warren that NH is her backyard but also Bernie’s so it’ll be more difficult to recover from a weak IA 4th.
Gotta admit I’m surprised how strong Biden and Bernie have remained. I thought Biden’s support was a mile wide and an inch deep. But, an unenthusiastic blah vote for Biden counts as much as a vote from someone who has 14,000 tweets about how great Pete is.
I knew Bernie had a strong base of support but I thought the heart attack and Warren would eat into it, especially among those who liked Sanders’ idea but got a bit turned off by Bernie Bro tactics and sheer stubbornness. I can tell you nothing about Iowa except that Bernie voters will turn out regardless of the weather or any super bowl hangovers on Monday.
Yes, but they are comparing them as if something big has happened. “3 months ago Biden led by 17!” Just seems to me the regular tightening of the numbers as people see likely scenarios and also stop pretending they’re less partisan than they are. Lol.
I’m not going to dig too deep into polls 10 months out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the impeachment hearings, House debate, and senate trial is helping to bring the R leaning base back home and away from the flirting with a Biden type Democrat.
And that +17 was the most positive Biden result since well before the race even started. The polls have bounced around a bit, but it’s been between Biden +10 and even, with an average of around +5.
You could just as easily look at the CNN Poll and say that it’s gone from Biden +5 to Biden +9 in just a month! Biden is surging!
I don’t think there’s really any hope for either Buttigieg or Warren at this point. Particularly with Buttigieg, once you get past New Hampshire, it’s not looking good in any way, shape, or form. He has clearly impressed a cross section of white voters in very white states, but he’s either too much of an unknown or his being gay is a deal-breaker.
In Warren’s case, I think she tried to be a more palatable form of Bernie Sanders and it just didn’t work. Her poll numbers have dipped and I don’t see them recovering.
I remember when I started the “power rankings” thread over the summer thinking that Bernie’s schtick had gotten old, but it hasn’t. This past weekend was the first weekend I’ve really had a chance to sit down and look at numbers, and while Biden is still a clear front-runner, this is the first time I’ve thought that Bernie has a legitimate path to the nomination. Bernie Sanders could beat Joe Biden, especially if he hammers him in both IA and NH. He’ll lose in SC, but he could recover from that, win in Nevada, and have real momentum going into Super Tuesday.
I think it’s ‘win Iowa or bust’ for her. And that just keeps her candidacy viable; it wouldn’t make her the front runner.
What’s weird is what knocked her down was the attack on her support of M4A. But Bernie’s also for M4A. Since those attacks came from the ‘moderate’ wing of the party, they kinda blew it, considering they’d be even more unhappy with Bernie as the nominee than Warren.
Minor nitpick: you can’t recover from SC by winning NV because NV comes before SC.
I’m thinking that Warren would make a great Treasury Secretary in a Sanders Administration.
I’m a Pete supporter. I do see he’s got a very impressive ground game in Iowa. Yes, it’s nice to have nice crowds at the rallies but getting people’s butts to the caucus is how you win and at least Pete’s team has really been focusing on that. Sanders is unique: his voters would charge out of WW I trenches to vote for him. All the other candidates need to work GOTV non stop now.
Warren turned into John Kerry with the M4A flip flop and the too cute dancing around how to pay for it and tax rates questions in the early debates. But, she has picked up the DMR endorsement which isn’t a small thing in IA. There’s still a lot of undecideds. The question is how many show up to caucus on a cold night on a Monday.
While I certainly don’t see a Sanders administration, there’s no way Warren goes into the cabinet in any administration. The Senate will be too close and everyone remembers what happened with Scott Brown in 2010. Plus, I actually think Warren enjoys being a Senator. She reminds me a lot of John McCain in that regard.
Well, maybe Warren, Pete, and Sanders embarrass Biden - a long shot, I reckon.
As we discussed elsewhere, the positioning is the problem. When she entered the race, she probably thought that people would get tired of Sanders’ broken record, but that hasn’t been the case. Say what one will, but Sanders has really succeeded in developing a grassroots organization and that has been the result of staying committed to the message. He won the authenticity battle with Warren. Warren didn’t flinch much and didn’t really deviate far from who she was, but when people challenged her on m4a, she made the same mistake that she made with the Pocahontas controversy: people dared her to give a descriptive answer to their questions, and she gave it to them. Bernie just repeats the same old shit over and over again and never actually really explains how he’s going to hang the moon - but he keeps promising people he’ll hang it and they believe him.
Major nitpick and so noted. Yeah for some reason I had my primaries mixed. That obviously hurts Biden and helps Sanders. Biden could be looking at 3 losses heading into SC, and his support could definitely dip there. That being said, Iowa and SC are historically better predictors of long-term success than NH and Nevada.
Warren may leave the senate if they think a solid Dem can win her seat. Mass is no longer a lock for the Dems like it was so they need a top notch candidate
Huh? There is a chance that Warren could face a primary challenge in 2024 and she may also decide to not seek reelection.
But, no Republican is winning that seat. Scott Brown was a unique special election fluke in the middle of a massive recession and his Democratic opponent thought it more important to take a Caribbean vacation rather than campaign.
