Your Democratic Primary Candidate Power Rankings: Post 'em here.

Politics & Elections
1

I already posted mine (as of yesterday) on another thread but didn’t want to consume that thread with debates about my rankings, so I’ll start a thread.

My rankings basically include data from the most recent five polls (as of 2 days ago) posted on the website 270towin.com and also Google Trends search data from about a 2 week period prior to the time of the most recent poll. No, I’m not a statistician and I already accept the hacking away at my, ahem, “methodology,” some of which is really nothing more than my own fuzzy perceptions about the candidates and their campaigns. All of this is to say, it ain’t no methodology. Just my thoughts.

Anyway, here it is. Again, as of 2-3 days ago so this is in the process of shifting as a result of last night’s (and tonight’s) debate:

  1. Joe Biden (easily the front runner - for now)
  2. Bernie Sanders
  3. Elizabeth Warren (not far behind #2)
  4. Kamala Harris
  5. Pete Buttigieg
  6. Andrew Yang (well behind #s 4 and 5)
  7. Cory Booker (virtual tie with Yang)
  8. Tulsi Gabbard
  9. Kirsten Gillibrand
  10. Amy Klobuchar
  11. Julian Castro
  12. Jay Inslee
  13. Beto O’Rourke
  14. Bill de Blasio
  15. Michael Bennet
  16. Marianne Williamson
  17. Tim Ryan
  18. John Delaney
  19. John Hickenlooper
  20. Eric Swalwell

As I noted earlier on that other thread, the four candidates who didn’t qualify for the debates are not on this list. I simply don’t see how they can legitimately be called contenders at this stage, even if Bullock and Gravel poll higher than Swalwell and Hickenlooper.

2

A minor point: they are actually named “Swallooper” and “Hickenwell”. I know no one has ever heard of them, but at least get the facts straight. :smack: :slight_smile:

3

My take:

  1. Joe Biden
  2. Elizabeth Warren
  3. Kamala Harris
  4. Bernie Sanders
  5. Julian Castro
  6. Cory Booker
  7. Beto O’Rourke
  8. Pete Buttigieg
  9. Amy Klobuchar
  10. Kirsten Gillibrand
  11. Tim Ryan
  12. Tulsi Gabbard
  13. Jay Inslee
  14. John Delaney
  15. Andrew Yang
  16. John Hickenlooper
  17. Eric Swalwell
  18. Bill de Blasio
  19. Michael Bennet
  20. Marianne Williamson
  21. Steve Bullock

This is all pending tonights debate.

4

My preliminary post-debate power rankings of the Dem field:

  1. Joe Biden (rocked by Harris)

  2. Kamala Harris (surging)

  3. Bernie Sanders (stagnant)

  4. Elizabeth Warren (surpassed by Harris)

  5. Pete Buttigieg (left behind by Harris)

  6. Andrew Yang (somehow right where he was last week)

  7. Cory Booker (disappointingly, no real movement)

  8. Tulsi Gabbard (no change)

  9. Julian Castro (continues climbing)

  10. Amy Klobuchar (no change, probably needs to hang it up)

  11. Kirsten Gillibrand (once thought of as a possible contender, now no chance of winning)

  12. Bill De Blasio (slight improvement but too little, too late)

  13. Tim Ryan: Despite what was thought to be a bad debate performance, he actually climbed 4 spots, which suggests maybe his moderate talking points found an audience. No chance of winning of course, but that’s beside the point

  14. John Delaney: Delaney also climbed 4 spots, also notably as another moderate. Also no chance of winning.

  15. Beto O’Rourke (continues to drop to the bottom like a rock in a lake)

  16. Marianne Williams (entertaining but not a serious candidate)

  17. Eric Swalwell (no longer in last place)

  18. Jay Inslee: Probably the most disappointing post-debate performer in terms of interest, considering how many people viewed favorably his debate performance. What it means is that he can continue to do well in debates and it probably won’t matter.

  19. Michael Bennet: Similar to Inslee, he could continue to debate well and it won’t matter. There are probably too many middle-age and elderly white men in the race.

  20. John Hickenlooper: Absolutely dead in the water, and I reached this conclusion even before news broke about his campaign staff breaking up with him.

5

Updated with more complete polling and trends data since the debates:

  1. Kamala Harris
  2. Joe Biden
  3. Bernie Sanders
  4. Elizabeth Warren
  5. Pete Buttigieg
  6. Andrew Yang
  7. Tulsi Gabbard
  8. Julian Castro
  9. Cory Booker
  10. Amy Klobuchar
  11. Marianne Williamson
  12. Beto O’Rourke
  13. Kirsten Gillibrand
  14. Michael Bennet
  15. Jay Inslee
  16. John Delaney
  17. Bill De Blasio
  18. Eric Swalwell
  19. John Hickenlooper
  20. Tim Ryan
6

The bottom 8 or so really need to hang it up and pursue other options.

Beto should run for Sen. John Cornyn’s seat. He’d easily be the most well known democrat in the race and he’s sure to be near the top of the VP list for any of the women if they get the nomination (him and Buttigieg).

Like his advisers told him, Hickenlooper should be running against Cory Gardner for that senate seat.

7

I have slightly changed my methodology, which factors Google search trends but relies less on that data. The idea is that polling gets a lot of weight but that Search can separate data may be used to separate two or more candidates clustered together in the polls.

My new power rankings are as follows:

  1. Joe Biden
  2. Elizabeth Warren
  3. Kamala Harris
  4. Bernie Sanders
  5. Pete Buttigieg
  6. Cory Booker
  7. Beto O’Rourke*
  8. Andrew Yang
  9. Tulsi Gabbard
  10. Julian Castro
  11. Amy Klobuchar
  12. Steve Bullock
  13. John Hickenlooper
  14. Marianne Williamson
  15. Jay Inslee
  16. John Delaney
  17. Bill De Blasio
  18. Michael Bennet
  19. Kirsten Gillibrand
  20. Mike Gravel
  21. Tim Ryan
  22. Tom Steyer
  23. Joe Sestak
  24. Seth Moulton
  25. Wayne Messam
  • Special note about Beto O’Rourke. Beto’s full name doesn’t seem to register in Google Search relative to other candidates, possibly because of confusion over the spelling. It’s worth mentioning that O’Rourke benefited from the new methodology which favors his polling. Still, he’s very much a long shot at this point. Way behind the rest of the field, but perhaps not quite scraping the floor either.
8

The only reason O’Rourke isn’t scraping the floor is that there’s a very thick layer of other floor-scrapers underneath him. He’s down on his hands and knees with a painter’s spatula; he just can’t find any spot of floor that hasn’t already been scraped.

9

Kind of impressive Steve Bullock is #12.

10

If he could get to 2% in polling, that would probably put him at #8 behind O’Rourke. But it’s not as easy as it looks. For the vast majority of this insanely large field, the polls themselves are generally pretty stable. You don’t see Castro moving much beyond 1% in the polls despite being a consensus member of the debate ‘winners’. You don’t see O’Rourke moving up much. Stagnation is even a problem for Sanders, a top tier candidate. Right now, the race is really down to about 4 people, and one of those four, Sanders, can’t seem to move forward, and doesn’t appear to have much of a path either. This may not change much until some candidates drop out early, and that assumes nobody else jumps right in.

11

Updated based on the three most recent polls that came out this week and also the Google search trends.

  1. Joe Biden
  2. Bernie Sanders
  3. Elizabeth Warren
  4. Kamala Harris
  5. Pete Buttigieg
  6. Beto O’Rourke
  7. Cory Booker
  8. Andrew Yang
  9. Tom Steyer (not joking)
  10. Michael Bennet
  11. Amy Klobuchar
  12. Julian Castro
  13. Bill De Blasio
  14. Tulsi Gabbard
  15. Steve Bullock
  16. Tim Ryan
  17. Kirsten Gillibrand
  18. John Hickenlooper
  19. Marianne Williamson
  20. John Delaney
  21. Mike Gravel
  22. Jay Inslee
  23. Seth Moulton
  24. Joe Sestak
  25. Wayne Messam

A few notes…

The Top Five:
The big story is that Joe Biden appears to have recovered from his mauling at the hands of Kamala Harris. Conversely, it appears that Harris has now dropped back down to the fourth place slot, just a little bit behind Sanders and Warren.

Sanders and Warren are neck and neck, and it’ll be interesting to see if these two liberal titans tangle at the upcoming debate, which they will undoubtedly headline. This could be Warrens chance to separate herself from Sanders; OTOH, she may end up feeling the Bern.

Buttigieg is still well behind the top four, but he’s holding steady and he’s raking in the contributions. He’ll need to start making that money work for him though.

The rest of the top 10:
Beto O’Rourke may not be dead just yet. Still a long shot candidate and apparently suffering a severe downturn in Q2 fundraising, he is still benefiting from his name recognition just enough to remain relevant. Just behind O’Rourke (you could argue they’re tied) is Cory Booker, who is still struggling to rise above 3 percent in the polls and never seemed to benefit from his first debate performance, which was considered fairly strong according to some observers.

Meanwhile, enter the leader of the impeach Trump movement and all around billionaire showboat Tom Steyer, who has already registered at 1 percent in the only poll that included his name and who has also pledged to spend up to $100 million of his own money on this campaign. That would easily enable him to remain in the race as long as he wants, whether he appears in any of the summer debates or not.

In danger of being pushed out of the race:

Wayne Messam
Joe Sestak
Seth Moulton
Jay Inslee*
Mike Gravel
Marianne Williamson
John Hickenlooper (getting delusional now)**
Tim Ryan
Bill De Blasio
Julian Castro*

  • Inslee and Castro, I can’t think of two people who benefited less from positive exposure during the debates. These are two candidates who were thought to have broken out during their first debate (especially Castro) and who just have never been able to move up in the polls. There’s just apparently way too much action going on with the candidates above them, and I don’t see this changing much. Worse, neither candidate appears to have the kinds of funding that can give them the endurance they need to build their name recognition over the next few months. It’s pretty much already over for them.

Speaking of already over, how do you not have money, not move up in the polls, not have some of your original key campaign strategists and still find the resolve to press forward with a campaign to nowhere. Sure, Hickenlooper has time to quit his presidential adventure and run for Senate, but I just hope he doesn’t turn himself into a complete laughing stock by then.

12

Most of the answers here are pretty close together so I’ll just list tiers:

  1. Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris- candidates who have a good chance to win

  2. Buttigieg, Booker- candidates polling a little better in early states who could have an Edwards 2004-level surprise showing and be a contender and plausibly win the nomination.

  3. Yang, Castro, O’Rourke, Inslee- candidates who are capable of doing better a few months from now than they are at present time, but would need really good luck to get much further. But I do see these four as the most likely to hang around longer than expected and get more delegates than expected.

  4. everyone else.

13

As we approach the upcoming debates, here are my latest power rankings:

  1. Biden (solid #1 again)
  2. Sanders
  3. Warren
  4. Harris (slowly backsliding)
  5. Buttigieg (seems stuck)
  6. Yang (back to #6)
  7. O’Rourke
  8. Booker
  9. Klobuchar
  10. Castro
  11. Steyer (made a big splash, but now buried in the pile)
  12. Gabbard (once keeping up with Yang, now fading, possibly for good)
  13. Bill De Blasio (expect him to swing for the fences at the debates)
  14. Bullock
  15. Delaney
  16. Gillibrand (It’s over, girlfriend)
  17. Hickenlooper (zombie campaign)
  18. Ryan (I expect him to drop out after the debate)
  19. Williamson (enjoy her wackiness while we can)
  20. Gravel
  21. Messam (Let’s congratulate him on no longer being dead last)
  22. Bennet (How embarrassing is this?)
  23. Inslee (Not as embarrassing as this!)
  24. Moulton
  25. Sestak (From next to last, to last)
14

Yeah, Biden very solid one.

Sanders consistent stuck to gradual decline puts him in forth not second. Warren is two. Her steady growth is impressive. Harris three. And may drop unless she proves she has other strong cards to play.

The drop off from Sanders to Buttigieg is then pretty dang big. And after that none have enough to measure as outside ambient noise levels.

15

Fox News Poll has Biden & Sanders beating Trump in the General Election. Warren & Harris only losing by 1. RealClearPolitics - 2022 - Latest Polls

I would leave Sanders in the #2 position right now.

16

I basically agree. My only minor disagreement - very minor - is with regard to Sanders. I would definitely agree that Warren and Harris both have a potentially higher ceiling than Sanders, but his most recent polling average (3 most recent nat’l polls) is actually slightly better than Warren’s, even if just by a hair. It’s also worth mentioning that Sanders’ campaign is financially loaded. They’re going to be with us for a while, much to the chagrin of the ‘real’ Democrats.

I concur completely that once you get past Sanders/Warren/Harris, the drop off is pretty significant. Although Harris did not remain in the top 3 for long, one thing her debate performance did accomplish was separation from Buttigieg and it has made her a more serious challenger. And if you had told her campaign that this is the position she’d be in a month after the first debate, I’m sure they’d have no problem with that. It’s really Buttigieg who is failing to deliver bang for the donation buck - lots of contributions but still basically stuck at 5%.

The bottom 10-12 candidates will move around a lot in terms of the power rankings, but that’s only because they’re all stuck at the bottom of the barrel. Even a slight bump in polling or Google Search trends could result in, say, a number 20 leapfrogging his/her way to number 15 or higher. Once you get past, say, Booker or Klobuchar, there’s really not much hope for the rest of the field.

17

Sanders is also number two if you average the three most recent polls (unless there’s a poll I overlooked, which is possible). In reality, Sanders and Warren are probably tied. I’d also give Warren the edge in terms of having room for future growth. But for now, the Sanders machine has him at number 2 in my book.

As for candidates like Klobuchar, Booker, Castro and Beto, I think Andrew Yang is your measuring stick. I mean, if you’re these candidates, your campaign has to be telling you “We’ve got to get past Yang. We can’t be polling lower than the free money for all, 4chan meme guy.” And right now, they’re not.

18

:slight_smile: Agree that if you’re not polling better than Yang it’s time to go home.

After having first place staying power, I think “power” has to factor current polling average but less so than consistent growth in numbers and ceiling.

Sanders still polls well but is stagnant to dropping well below a ceiling that is low in the first place. And this despite his flush funds. That’s a much weaker hand than polling alone suggests.

Warren has steady growth whatever the news cycle. That’s a power multiplier.

Harris had a good bump into second tier but is fading from it. That makes her much less power than Warren. But her ceiling is much higher than Sanders’ and she might have strong new cards to reveal at debate two. That is much more potential than Sanders has.

Or at so goes my analysis!

19

If you look at Q2 funding and the “burn rate” as reported by 538, it’s likely that this week is “now or never” time for certain candidates.

The candidates who are financially constrained include:

Joe Sestak
Seth Moulton
Jay Inslee
Mike Gravel
Marianne Williamson
Tim Ryan
John Hickenlooper
Bill De Blasio
Julio Castro
Andrew Yang

Of those listed, I expect the current officeholders who are up for re-election to drop out first, as they’ll presumably want time to prepare for their re-election campaign. Many probably won’t qualify for the September debates, so it simply won’t make sense to continue. A few candidates, such as Gravel, Messam, or Williamson, might be content to run activist campaigns but won’t get much attention. Yang has a rabid cult-like following and he has proven adept at using social media to build the kind of campaign that might hover around 1-2% for a while, so even though he’s cash poor, he might still survive for a time.

However, overall, the field of real contenders will get much smaller after this week.

20

And today’s YouGov supports my case with Warren continuing her climb.