Week 12 CFB -- Which AP Top 25 team(s) will lose?

Zeldar · November 15, 2015, 8:30pm

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The AP Top 25 Poll

Week 12



1 Clemson           ACC                         Record: 10-0 v
2 Ohio State        Big Ten                     Record: 10-0 @@@
3 Alabama           SEC                         Record: 9-1  v
4 Oklahoma State    Big 12                      Record: 10-0 ###
5 Notre Dame        Division I FBS Independents Record: 9-1  v 
6 Iowa              Big Ten                     Record: 10-0 v 
7 Oklahoma          Big 12                      Record: 9-1  $$$
8 Florida           SEC                         Record: 9-1  v
9 Michigan State    Big Ten                     Record: 9-1  @@@
10 Baylor           Big 12                      Record: 8-1  ###
11 TCU              Big 12                      Record: 9-1  $$$
12 North Carolina   ACC                         Record: 9-1  v
13 Houston          The American                Record: 10-0 v
14 Michigan         Big Ten                     Record: 8-2  v
15 Stanford         Pac-12                      Record: 8-2  v
16 Florida State    ACC                         Record: 8-2  v
17 LSU              SEC                         Record: 7-2  ***
18 Utah             Pac-12                      Record: 8-2  v
19 Navy             The American                Record: 8-1  v
20 Northwestern     Big Ten                     Record: 8-2  %%%
21 Wisconsin        Big Ten                     Record: 8-2  %%%
22 USC              Pac-12                      Record: 7-3  &&&
23 Oregon           Pac-12                      Record: 7-3  &&&
24 Washington State Pac-12                      Record: 7-3  v
25 Mississippi      SEC                         Record: 7-3  ***

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NCAAF Scores & Schedule

All FBS

Weeks: 12

— Saturday, November 21

12:00 PM EST
(12) N. Carolina @ Virginia Tech

12:00 PM EST ESP2
Purdue @ (6) Iowa

12:00 PM EST ABC
(14) Michigan @ Penn St.

12:00 PM EST SECN
Florida Atlantic @ (8) Florida

3:00 PM EST ESP3, CHSS
Chattanooga @ (16) Florida St.

3:30 PM EST
Wake Forest @ (1) Clemson

3:30 PM EST ABC
(9) Michigan St. @ (2) Ohio St. — @@@

3:30 PM EST BTN, BTN2
(20) Northwestern @ (21) Wisconsin — %%%

3:30 PM EST CBS
(17) LSU @ (25) Mississippi — ***

3:30 PM EST FOX
UCLA @ (18) Utah

3:30 PM EST ESPU
(13) Houston @ Connecticut

3:30 PM EST ESPN
(22) USC @ (23) Oregon — &&&

5:00 PM EST SECN
Charleston Sou. @ (3) Alabama

7:00 PM EST CBSS
(19) Navy @ Tulsa

7:30 PM EST NBCS
(5) Notre Dame @ Boston Coll.

7:30 PM EST FOX
(10) Baylor @ (4) Oklahoma St. — ###

8:00 PM EST ABC
(11) TCU @ (7) Oklahoma — $$$

10:30 PM EST ESPN
California @ (15) Stanford

10:45 PM EST ESP2
Colorado @ (24) Washington St.

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**@@@, ###, $$$, %%%, &&&, ***** = Two Top 25 teams are playing each other

You must pick one to comply with these rules:

Scoring for this week’s poll is as follows:

Pick a team to LOSE and they LOSE – +1 point
Pick a team to LOSE and they WIN – -1 point
Fail to pick a LOSER in a game involving two Top 25 teams – -1 point
(two Top 25 teams playing – one must lose)
Pick both teams to LOSE in a game involving two Top 25 teams – -1 point
(two Top 25 teams playing – one must lose)

Last WEEK’s thread/poll:

Week 11 CFB – Which AP Top 25 team(s) will lose?
11-08-2015, 03:08 PM

Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 15

=========================

Last YEAR Same WEEK’s thread/poll:

Week 12 CFB – Which AP Top 25 team(s) will lose?
11-09-2014, 04:29 PM

Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 19

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Wolverine · November 15, 2015, 10:46pm

I’m pretty sure I am going to be negative this week. I have very little confidence with any of my picks.

Zeldar · November 16, 2015, 12:23am

Early Votes:




================================================================================================================================================================================================
                                     @@@          ###                   $$$          @@@    ###  $$$                                     ***               %%%    %%%  &&&   &&&            *** 
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
basset hound                6       OHSt        OKState                                          TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
Kitten Mitten               5       OHSt  Bama                          ()                 Bayl   ()                Mich        FLState   ()               ()    ()    ()    ()             () 
Wolverine                   6                                          Okla        MichSt  Bayl                                                           NWest        USC                Missis
Zeldar                      6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              ====================================================================================================================================================================
    4                      23   0     2     1       2      0       0     1     0     2      2     2      0      0     1     0      1      0     0     0     3      0    1     2      0       3 /23
==================================================================================================================================================================================================

Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 4 

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Oredigger77 · November 16, 2015, 4:02am

Talk about a great weekend for football. I really want to pick LSU to continue their slide but Mississippi just isn’t good.

Zeldar · November 16, 2015, 4:07am

What’s interesting to me is how there’s a pretty much even blend of slugfests and snoozers. Glorified byes for some, season-enders for others.

DinoR · November 16, 2015, 4:18am

Missed a pick in Baylor - OKST. Oklahoma State to lose.

Zeldar · November 16, 2015, 5:23am

Thanks! I fixed it.

Zeldar · November 16, 2015, 1:23pm

Monday Update:




================================================================================================================================================================================================
                                     @@@          ###                   $$$          @@@    ###  $$$                                     ***               %%%    %%%  &&&   &&&            *** 
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
basset hound                6       OHSt        OKState                                          TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
DinoR                      (7)      OHSt       (OKState)                                         TCU                Mich                 LSU              NWest        USC
Kitten Mitten               5       OHSt  Bama                          ()                 Bayl   ()                Mich        FLState   ()               ()     ()    ()   ()             () 
Nauplius                    6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                             Wisc  USC                Missis
Oredigger77                 6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
Wolverine                   6                                          Okla        MichSt  Bayl                                                           NWest        USC                Missis
Zeldar                      6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              ====================================================================================================================================================================
    7                     (42)  0     3     1     (5)      0       0     1     0      4      2    5      0      0     2     0      1      1     0     0     5      1    3     3      0       5 /(42)
==================================================================================================================================================================================================

Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 7 

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DMC · November 16, 2015, 3:29pm

I missed the same pick with the same outcome as DinoR.

Zeldar · November 16, 2015, 4:03pm

I’m putting you down for (OKState) and hope that’s what you meant.

Death_of_Rats · November 16, 2015, 4:13pm

I also missed the Baylor/OKState match up, but I am picking Baylor to lose.

Alabama needs to be dropped from the Top 4 just for scheduling Charleston Southern in week 11. Play your cupcakes at the start of the season like everybody else.

Zeldar · November 16, 2015, 5:47pm

I made a comment to this effect above. But Bama is not the only offender in the “cupcake” arena. Consider the out-of-balance nature of these matchups:



 Florida Atlantic  @  (8) Florida
 Wake Forest       @  (1) Clemson
 Chattanooga       @ (16) Florida St.
 Purdue            @  (6) Iowa 
 (5) Notre Dame    @      Boston Coll. 
(19) Navy          @      Tulsa

I see these scheduling tactics as ways to avoid another off week but still providing a rest for the stronger teams.

Sterling_Archer · November 16, 2015, 9:38pm

Complaining about Iowa vs Purdue and Wake vs Clemson? Those are major conference games. Are good teams supposed to avoid playing their in-conference rivals when they’re having a down year?

Zeldar · November 17, 2015, 12:02pm

Tuesday Morning Update:




================================================================================================================================================================================================
                                     @@@          ###                   $$$          @@@    ###  $$$                                     ***               %%%    %%%  &&&   &&&            *** 
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
basset hound                6       OHSt        OKState                                          TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
BobLibDem                  10       OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam        Okla  Flor                                   Mich                 LSU                     Wisc       Oreg
Death of Rats              (6)                                                     MichSt (Bayl) TCU                                     LSU              NWest             Oreg 
DinoR                      (7)      OHSt       (OKState)                                         TCU                Mich                 LSU              NWest        USC
DMC                        (6)                 (OKState)                           MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
Kitten Mitten               5       OHSt  Bama                          ()                 Bayl   ()                Mich        FLState   ()               ()     ()    ()   ()             () 
Nauplius                    6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                             Wisc  USC                Missis
Oredigger77                 6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
txtumbleweed                7       OHSt        OKState                Okla                                         Mich                 LSU              NWest        USC 
Wolverine                   6                                          Okla        MichSt  Bayl                                                           NWest        USC                Missis
Zeldar                      6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
Zyanthia                    6                   OKState                Okla        MichSt                                                                 NWest             Oreg          Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              =======================================================================================================================================================================
    12                    (77)  0     5     2     (9)      1       0     4     1      7    (3)    7      0      0     4     0      1      4     0     0     9      2    4     7      0       7  /(77)
=====================================================================================================================================================================================================

Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 12 

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Oredigger77 · November 17, 2015, 8:41pm

I’d add Irish/BC to that list the major Catholic schools have to play each year otherwise their fan bases will riot.

Zeldar · November 17, 2015, 8:56pm

The main point I was trying to assert is that “creampuffs” abound in even the Power 5 conferences as can be seen at http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm (look down the page for the Conference Rankings) where there are hardly any exceptions to the notion that even within the same conference (and even division) there are the low hanging fruit for the big guys to nibble on. Picking OOC examples just doesn’t complete the picture, to my way of thinking.

Barkis_is_Willin · November 18, 2015, 2:51pm

Who do you like in a BC vs. Charleston Southern matchup? There’s no comparison.

Oakminster · November 18, 2015, 7:14pm

Going with Michigan St., Baylor, TCU, LSU, Northwestern, and the left coast USC to lose this week.

Zeldar · November 18, 2015, 11:28pm

Knowing no more than I do about either team, I’d look to Sagarin and expect Charleston Southern to lose by at least 10 points.

UPDATE TIME:




================================================================================================================================================================================================
                                     @@@          ###                   $$$          @@@    ###  $$$                                     ***               %%%    %%%  &&&   &&&            *** 
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
Barkis is Willin'           7       OHSt        OKState                Okla                                                                   Utah        NWest             Oreg          Missis
basset hound                6       OHSt        OKState                                          TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
BigAppleBucky               8                   OKState  NotDam                    MichSt        TCU                Mich                 LSU              NWest             Oreg
BobLibDem                  10       OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam        Okla  Flor                                   Mich                 LSU                     Wisc       Oreg
Death of Rats              (6)                                                     MichSt (Bayl) TCU                                     LSU              NWest             Oreg 
DinoR                      (7)      OHSt       (OKState)                                         TCU                Mich                 LSU              NWest        USC
DMC                        (6)                 (OKState)                           MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
Jackmannii                  6        ()         OKState                 ()           ()           ()  NorCar                                        Navy  NWest        USC                Missis
Kitten Mitten               5       OHSt  Bama                          ()                 Bayl   ()                Mich        FLState   ()               ()     ()    ()   ()             () 
Nauplius                    6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                             Wisc  USC                Missis
Oakminster                  6                                                      MichSt  Bayl  TCU                                     LSU              NWest        USC
Oredigger77                 6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
txtumbleweed                7       OHSt        OKState                Okla                                         Mich                 LSU              NWest        USC 
Wolverine                   6                                          Okla        MichSt  Bayl                                                           NWest        USC                Missis
Zeldar                      6                   OKState                            MichSt        TCU                                                      NWest             Oreg          Missis
Zyanthia                    6                   OKState                Okla        MichSt                                                                 NWest             Oreg          Missis
                              ==================================================================================================================================================================
                              Clem  OHSt  Bama  OKState  NotDam  Iowa  Okla  Flor  MichSt  Bayl  TCU  NorCar  Hous  Mich  Stan  FLState  LSU  Utah  Navy  NWest  Wisc  USC  Oreg  WashSt  Missis
                              =======================================================================================================================================================================
    16                   (104)  0     6     2     (12)     2       0     5     1      9    (4)    9      1      0     5     0      1      6     1     1    13      2    6     9      0       9  /(104)
=====================================================================================================================================================================================================

Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 16 

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** Please note the “()” markers. These will get -1 points per pair unless I get notified of a pick for LOSER in each pair.**

Barkis_is_Willin · November 19, 2015, 2:07pm

Right. You can’t lump P5 teams in with the true cupcakes of the world. BC, Wake Forest and the bottom dwellers of the P5 conferences are still miles better than the best of the FCS programs, no matter what Nick Saban would have you think.