Well, the Yahoo map (which uses the AP as their source) now has Bush “pink” in Florida and Ohio. (Meaning that he’s got a slight lead but it’s too soon too tell.) This may change at any moment, though. Time will tell, time will tell.
Kerry’s gonna get New York and California, of course.
I think that the odds are slightly better for Kerry, but I doubt this is gonna be a slam dunk for either side.
Bush hasn’t taken a single state that I didn’t assume he was going to take. He hasn’t won any state that I was wondering about, let alone worried about.
The ones to watch are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida (whichever candidate wins two of three puts the other at a big disadvantage), Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota & Iowa (if Bush picks off several of these Kerry is in trouble unless he pulls down all three of the beforementioned big ones), New Mexico Colorado and Nevada (Kerry stands a good change of picking off at least one, which could make up for Wisconsin or Iowa if Bush scores there).
Missouri is light blue on the Yahoo map. Slightly leaning towards Kerry. However, all polls say that Missouri is going to go for Bush, so who knows if this will stick.
Even a slight Bush lead in Ohio and Florida certainly “indicates” a Bush win, doesn’t it?
Kerry cannot win the election without Ohio. Full stop, end of story; if Bush wins Ohio, Bush is re-elected. I predicted a super-close Kerry win with Bush winning Florida, but without Ohio too, Kerry hasn’t a chance in hell.
Fuck, maybe a Bush win is a good thing because all the assholes who voted for that idiot will have to take the blame for the disasters he’s leading us into.
With 30% in, Bush has a 5% point lead in Ohio, if Cincinatti and Cleveland are still out Kerry’s got a chance, if they’re in he’s done. A 5 percentage point deficit will be hard for him to come back from, which is bad news for Kerry because…
…he’s 5% down in Florida with 78% in, I bet they call Florida for Bush soon. I don’t think Kerry can win if Ohio and Florida go red.
However, on the flip side of the coin, PA is 60/40 Kerry with half the precincts reporting. That’s a nice lead in a so-called “battleground” state.
Still, it’s looking grim for the visiting team.
No, no. I know the bottle’s not won until Bush hits 269.
But my confidence in the outcome, which I first wagered on over 30 months ago, has not wavered once. I said then Bush would win, I said it last week, and I’m saying it again now.