…$50 that one way or the other we’ll know the winner of the presidential election by 1AM Eastern Time.
What do you think? Crazy or what?
I think the person who said “no” will owe the other a Grant.
1AM Eastern Time tonight? I think that’s a fool’s bet.
I was wondering what the time difference was between us and the East Coast. I guess it’s four days.
10pm on the West Coast and two hours after the polls close here. I think that you’re probably going to lose but only by about an hour or so. I’ll give you 30% odds of winning.
Polls close in Iowa at 9pm (CST) and in Wisconsin at 8pm (CST). I think you’ll be cutting it close.
I bet my mom that Obama would win.
If he loses, I have to give my mom to some other guy.
Interesting bet! It probably won’t be called as early as it was last year with more tossups in the west, but I’d say you made a good choice. I think if Obama somehow pulls off FL you’ll win, or if he wins both VA and OH.
Define “know”.
Don’t be pedantic, Mace. A clear winner with 270 electoral votes, regardless of other happenstances. I’m counting on the 70+ in the west to be in the bag as soon as polls close there. I’d be astonished if they weren’t. So Obama needs to be at 200 or so by 8PM Pacific or so.
When all of the major networks call it?
A bet on whether we’ll see a concession speech on election night is a bet I would not take.
I have pulled two complete flip-flops on this already, but I think you’re up $50. The earliest the election can be called for practical purposes is 11 p.m. Eastern, which is what happened in 2008. Among the swing or swing-ish states, you’re basically predicting that Michigan (8 p.m.), Pennsylvania (8), Ohio (8:30 p.m), and either Virginia (7) or Iowa (10) will be called for Obama by 1 a.m. Eastern. I think that’s plausible. (Wisconsin’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.) In 2008 I think those states had all been called about all of that had happened by 11 p.m., and most of those states were called by around 9:20 Eastern.
Relevant links as people make their guesses here: electoral vote map, poll closing times, and comparisons to 2008.
Hey Jonathan, what’s the big rush? You’re a newspaper guy, right? I’m sure it’ll be in one the next day.
She was arguing that it might be a week before we knew. Then things got heated.
Plus $50 is $50, right?
Did you intend to make it 1:00 AM on the morning after Election Day? Or do you subscribe to the theory, “As Dixville Notch goes, so goes the nation.”
I don’t think he needs VA or FL. He does need OH however. Without Ohio he would need to get VA and either CO or NH. All of this assumes that he takes MI, WI, IA, and PA, pretty likely IMHO.
Obama can win without Florida and I think there’s a slightly better-than-even chance he will do so. The same pretty much goes for Virginia, although I think his odds there are better. He can win without Ohio but it’d be tricky and losing the state would be a bad sign. Romney essentially can’t win without Ohio.
I agree it would be really tough for Romney to win without Ohio. He’d have to win Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia to do it. The odds that he would win all five of those states if he lost Ohio would be very remote.
Obama, on the other hand, could lose Ohio and Virginia and still squeak in with 272 electoral votes if he wins Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Or if he wins Virginia, he could afford to lose both Colorado and New Hampshire or both Iowa and Nevada.
These are all assuming Romney wins Florida. If Romney loses Florida, he’s toast. He could win Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia and Obama would still win the election by winning Florida.
I don’t think that we’ll know about FL for a while. Once the polls close in the West and all of those States turn blue on the map, it’s just a matter of VA and OH and we’ll be done.