I’m predicting Nov 20th, after the re-counts and court challenges.
I’d say Tuesday night. The critical states are all in the eastern time zone and it usually doesn’t take long to project who won. 2000 was an extreme outlier.
If Obama wins the call will be quick, since the situation is basically that Romney has to run the table when it comes to the swing states. Once a swing state is called for Obama (well, except New Hampshire) the matter is decided. But if Romney wins one swing state you then have to wait for the next one and then the next and then the next. So the more a victory it is for Obama, the earlier we will now; the better Romney does, the later we will know.
It’ll be Tuesday night, but the networks will decide that the longer into the evening they can promote a ‘horse race’ the better their ratings will be, so even when the conclusion is foregone, they will drag it out for as long as possible.
If Ohio is called for Obama it should be over for Romney, even if Obama hasn’t gotten to 270 yet.
Just asking: if Romney takes Ohio, could be weeks/months? (I.e. voter/voting booth fraud.)
When Congress opens the Electoral College ballots. That’s sometime in January.
PS And possibly not even then…
I started a similar thing on my Facebook page tonight. My guess was also 11/20/12. I don’t think we’ll know immediately but I don’t think we’ll have quite the train wreck we had in 2000. I think we’ll know before Thanksgiving.
Hopefully.
This Fix has a breakdown of Election Night Viewer’s Guide. If Romney loses Florida, his chances drop off so much, it’s pretty much over.
Romney won’t lose Florida.
Talk to Nate about that. He’s giving Obama a 53% chance.
I think Florida is one of the states that have a mandatory recount if the margin is 0.5% or less. So Obama may eventually win there, but we won’t know for many days.
By 11:30PM Eastern Time Tuesday.
Yeah, I saw that. I would also like a pony for my birthday but I’m pretty sure I won’t be getting that either.
It could happen but no way Obama can count on it. If it happens, call it a night and pop the cork on the champagne.
I did use “if” in my post as I don’t claim any more certainty than Nate.
Did you read the polls which that is based on? Obama leads in early votes and 50% say they have voted.
As you say, if Romney loses FL, it’s a early night.
Here’s a nice little predictor from BuzzFeed. As mentioned before, Mitt’s got to run the table, but this breaks it down by when the polls close for each relevant state, and turns it into a freaking flowchart.
Is there a scenario where Romney sweeps the swing states?
Last time it was 11:00 Eastern Time, the moment the polls closed on the west coast. I expect the same thing this time.
So hopefully we will know today.
I understand that their chart makes it seem like Mitt’s got to run the table, but it’s just not true. For example, lets pretend Romney gets VA, NC, OH, FL, and NH (that’s 270) while Obama gets PA, MI, WI, CO, IA, NV (that’d be 268). Romney could lose even lose OH and still win if he could take either PA or WI and CO.
How come Obama’s chances have been going down today?
Earlier on, they were 92.4, then they dropped to 92, now I see they’re down to 91.6…
What’s up with that?