So as we are crushing beers and watching the returns filter in tonight, what state won bye each candidate would satisfy you that it’s game over. Never mind when 270 is officially announced. What is the earliest state that would confirm in your mind that a particular candidate won?
Further, let’s stay within the bounds of reality. If as soon as the polls close in New York, Romney is projected the winner, obviously all bets are off.
My picks:
Obama wins: Florida or Virginia. Either of those three shows that it’s not Romney’s night and his other meager paths to victory won’t pan out.
Romney wins: Ohio. It will show a lift in the polls that gets him the other swing states he needs.
If Pennsylvania is truly safe, then if Ohio goes for Obama, it’s his. Romney can win Ohio and still easily lose, so there’s no one state that he’d get that would be a lock for him.
I agree with this. I’ll also throw in Pennsylvania for Romney, as there seem to still be some pundits out there thinking that can happen. If it does, it’ll signal a massive failure of the polls.
Virginia will be the first of the swing states to give us any results so however that goes will be a good indicator of what the night may be like. After that Ohio or Florida are likely to be the clinchers.
It’s not really tortuous. If Romney wins Ohio, I can’t imagine him losing VA or FL. Likewise I can’t imagine him not picking up at least one of Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, or New Hampshire. I believe that puts him over the top.
I say the OP pretty much hit it on the head. I’ve been saying for quite a while that Romney can’t win without the trifecta of Virginia, Florida and Ohio (of course, he’d still need another swing state to put him over 270, but if he did well enough to take all three of those, he will probably pick up another state like Colorado or New Hampshire as well).
So if Obama takes any one of Virginia, Florida or Ohio, I say the election is in the bag.
I know Republicans have been pointing to Pennsylvania as a backdoor to get to 270. I don’t see it. They say that every election, and every election, they lose PA. Therefore, if Romney wins PA, as mentioned above, the polling has been drastically wrong and the Mittster is cruising to victory.
I agree that PA is fools gold for the GOP. Reagan “only” won there by 7 points in an 18 point landslide. It was one of the closer states. Dukakis only lost PA by 2. The only thing that could help Romney are the Dems in the western PA coal country who will support him. But they don’t have the numbers to overcome Philly and Pittsburgh.
I think Romney has a better chance in Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent Michigan than he does in PA. But again, if he wins either of those states, he simply rolls nationwide because the polling was terribly wrong.
Florida - although I am hopeful but dubious Obama will win there, and I further doubt they can get their act together and finish counting this month, but should they actually declare Florida for Obama I could probably just go to bed and rest easily.
I’m not that confident. I think Obama needs more than one swing state to call it a lock. Virginia, Ohio, N.Carolina and Florida all close by 8:00 p.m. Give Obama any two and it’s over.
Romney will need three out of those four, plus two of the states that close at 9:00: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
But what about the whole issue of ‘calling’ a state? Who gets to do it? Quite possible one network calls a state while the rest will be content to wait a while longer, so it adds another level of discomfort, imo.
Ohio would pretty much confirm it either way, but yes, if Obama gets Ohio and Virginia I’ll be pretty confident it’s over. As far as media outlets calling the election- typically the calls typically within a few minutes of each other anyway. The one glaring exception is the 2000 Florida catastrofuck.
Romney absolutely needs all of FL, VA, and OH, and will still need to flip another smaller state. So, as soon as *any *of those three goes to Obama, it’s over. And I think the first of those will be Virginia, with thanks to Virgil Goode for the assist.
