Sometimes polls that come out after the first nightly update are added.
If there wasn’t, why would we call them swing states?
I think Florida will be too close to call, but that Obama will clearly win Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the networks will call it a 11 PM. Mitt will concede after midnight.
Scenario 1 is a possibility, but Scenario 2 is ridiculously unlikely. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio, he’s even less likely to win Pennsylvania OR both Wisconsin and Colorado. The state results are not wholly independent events.
Romney basically has to run the table in the major swing states that are gonna come up early - Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, and in your scneario he also has to pick off NEw Hampshire. (North Carolina is a given if he wins Virginia.) Then he has to win more.
But if that happens, it’s because he’s running the table. It’s exceedingly unlikely Romney would take all those states but somehow lose Colorado, and he’d probably win Iowa too. A poll bias of that magnitude would flip most or all of them. (Not Pennsylvania, which isn’t a swing state.)
Things in Ohio may be severely FUBAR, and we won’t have an actual result until the last lawyer dies of old age.
So who picked 11:30 PM EDT (or thereabouts) when CNN called it?
Honestly, I was floored and verklempt. 11:30 on election night, and we were done here. Well played, America!
I said “by 11:30PM” Eastern Time, and I think one or two people ahead of me said it would be fairly early in the evening. 
I never had any doubt about the outcome, really. Unless serious fraud came into play in the battleground states.
Notice that the President did win Florida. So much for the probability of ponies on birthdays. 
I’d just like to close this out by publicly stating that I was incorrect…and surprised.
I’m already shopping for a stable nearby.