I don’t know where to post this, so I’ll do it here.
Basically, once oil production starts dropping from the limited reserves, then society will break down. Scary stuff.
Someone mind debunking this so I won’t be up all night?
I’d say cf. Paul Ehrlich’s 1971 The Population Bomb. That’s not to say the future is all rosy. But I don’t think anyone is very good at predicting the future.
I can’t debunk it, as such, but the fact that it completely flies in the face of everything that I have heard from even the most doom-and-gloom environmentalists as far as how much time is left before oil reserves run out, and what will happen when they do, makes me skeptical. Add to that that I have never heard even the slightest peep of anything resembling this, and well, I have some questions. There are also no direct, linked citations, (there is a link that points to “over 50 reputable sources”) which makes me wonder if this guy can really back all of this up.
Yes, humans need to find alternate, renewable energy sources. But I don’t think the world is on the eve of collapse. This is ESPECIALLY true given that well over 500 million people already live without consuming or relying upon a significant amount of world oil resources. I also don’t see anything to back up the assertion that the world population will drop to 500 million. The author merely states that scientific evidence and research, blah blah blah show this to be the case. So I don’t buy it, not yet at least.
Someone with some expertise want to confirm my ramblings?
Odd, I found that site just a few days ago – must be doin’ the rounds.
I can’t debunk it either, there’s a lot of sites out there about ‘Peak Oil’ but then theres a lotta sites about ‘Zero Point Energy’ as well.
The basic core of “as oil becomes rarer, more difficult to get to” then “oil will become more expensive” seems fair enough. That that could lead to products, goods and services becoming more expesive also follows.
The leap is the breakdown of civilisation, etc.
I’m not sure if that’s reasonable but there was an outcry, demonstrations and blockades in Britain when petrol prices went up. I could see that happening again and getting worse if prices really rose. If you added rolling blackouts and other shortages into the equation then things might start getting really nasty.
However, we don’t know when or if it’ll come to that. I do tend to think that humans will think of something, oil companies and goverments aren’t stupid enough to ignore this and there’s certainly an element of scaremongery in there. Of course it’s very possible that the US (and perhap others) response was to march into Iraq to secure a new source of oil – not saying that for a fact, just stating the possibility.
On the other hand, it’s not something we should be ignoring, and it’s something that we should be informed about. So I’ll shut up now and let someone more informed wander along and, well, inform us.
SD