assuming that HIV epidemic is really driven by heterosexual transmission, then shouldn’t the early 20th century Africa (already a fairly densely populated place with some modern transport and a culture similar to the current one) have had STD epidemics of a similar scope? What says the historical record?
If in fact there were no similar STD epidemics before HIV, can modern epidemiology explain that while sticking to the heterosexual transmission as the only significant mechanism at work?