What about Algeria?

The Arab Spring protests there have achieved the lifting of Algeria’s 19-year-old state of emergency and seemed to have died down since May.

So. It doesn’t seem like a situation for an uprising or a revolution or anything. I mean, it’s an authoritarian regime, but more like Mexico under the PRI than Libya under Gaddafi. AFAIK. And if the Algerians just finished a civil war in 1999, they probably have no stomach for another now. The people’s grievances, once they figure out just what they are, could be more effectively addressed by peaceful political and electoral organizing. Or am I missing something?

Also, will it complicate things that Algeria is harboring some of Gaddafi’s family?

Not unless the new Libyan government continues to view it as an “act of agression”. If that happens, it will bolster the Algerian government.

I dont see how it could bolster the Algerian government to be at odds with a newly democratic Arab country (right next to the frontiers of Maghreb) when the legitimacy of Algeria’s government and institutions have been questioned for decades now. The Algerian government’s greatest wish right now is not to stir any shit.

If the new Libyan government decides, “Well, hell, we’ve got an army we need to do something with,” and decides to invade Algeria to retrieve Gaddaffi’s family, that won’t unite Algeria?

Far-fetched, I know. I don’t expect them to stay long anyway. To the best of my knowledge, none of those in Algeria are on the war crime list, and I would expect that they’ll show up in Italy soon enough, taking the maximum daily withdrawal from whatever bank accounts haven’t been frozen yet.

There is no chances that the new government in Lybia will start a war against Algeria. They are not so stupid. An act of agression does not mean they will invade Algeria, but it does mean that the Generals of the Pouvoir which rules Algeria will have another not-friend neighbour. They already have started with bad relations with Tunisia as they did not very much appreciate the democratic revolution. Now it is clear the rumours of Algerian support to Qadafi were very true.

Maybe there will be some border clashes, but the Generals are very disliked among the Algerian youth, it is not very likely this will help them.

:confused: Algeria does not have a military government . . . does it?

Quasi-military. The military pulls the strings, the civilian government is almost a front.

The U.S. invaded Afghanistan using the fact that the then government in charge refused to extradite Osama Bin Laden, a man charged by serveral countries as an international criminal complicit in mass murder.

Would anyone support boots-on-the-ground to get Ghadaffi, if the Algerians didn’t want to turn him over to the UN/Hague/whatever?

I could picture a black ops raid to extract him, maybe, though I can’t imagine Obama ordering such a thing, even if it were a slam dunk. However, Cameron or Sarkozy might do so; they were willing to put special ops on the ground in Libya during the revolution.

Just how (1) corrupt and (2) unpopular and (3) necessary is that arrangement?

Well that was part of it. The US charged Afghanistan was being used by AQ as a trainging ground for terrorists and the Taliban was either cooperating or not in control of it’s territory.

It’s acceptable to invade under international law. This is how Israel was able to go into Lebanon to persue Hamas and the PLO as the legit government of Lebanon was not in control of its territory.

The Austrians also used this against Serbia to start WWI. As Serbia was indeed letting terrorists base from their country, though Serbia gave in to all the demands of Austria, war started as Germany was itching for a fight, but that’s another thread.

So there’s plenty of precident for the US going to Afghanistan. Not so with just harboring a criminal.

I dont know about the “necessity” of it (I guess you mean “if it’s not that, would it be chaos?”) but it is quite corrupt and quite unpopular. Ever since the late eighties and the rise of Islamism there (itself linked partly to the corruption), all Algerian Presidents have been pre-selected by the military before running for office. Before that the Army already had a heavy hand in Algerian politics, and were often the Kingmakers.
That said there appears to be factions and clans in the Algerian military as Bouteflika (present President) running for a third term was said to have been a cause of tension among the generals.

Or Islamist rule. The fear of which in Libya has turned out to have been exaggerated, so far, but Algeria might be a different story. I do recall fears (how well-grounded I do not know), when the Islamists won the 1991 elections, that it would be a case of “One Man, One Vote, One Time,” and there would be a Sunni Iran on the Mediterranean. In any case, even though there was a military coup after those elections, the U.S. supported the government side in the ensuing civil war.

It is widely understood that the Salafistes are no longer popular in Algeria, even though the Generals are not popular either. Capitaine Zombie has it correct. The real state in Algeria is the generals and Sonatrac

True, at this point Algeria does not seem to be an imminent threat to it’s neighbors.

I forgot about the AQ training camps [in Afghanistan]. :smack:

I can ALMOST see the Brits or the French doing it after seeing what great publicity SEAL Team 6 got. Especially the French, who are damned good but I can’t remember any recent actions.

Oh please, not a Legionnaire Vs S.A.S thread :slight_smile:

Pffft. Army Rangers could eat 'em for brunch.