Realistically, the answer depends on how realistic an answer you want.
Most people, for example, would tell you that Brexit will cause the UK to implode and keel over, providing the next film location for Kurt Russell’s “Escape From…” outing. That is, realistically speaking, silly.
Moldova doesn’t have a membership in the EU nor with anyone. You know what the people there all do? They go to work every day, eat food a few times a day, have sex occasionally, and raise their families. They’re probably all mostly happy and satisfied with life. (Granted, I’ve never been there and know nothing about the country.)
There was a thread some time back where someone was asking about the population of the world through history and how China always seemed to have a lot of people. It’s just a very fertile area and rice is a good food source. And, consequently, China has dominated Southeast Asia for all of history. Sheer bulk numbers of people matters a lot when it comes to a lot of things:
- Being able to beat others in a war.
- Being able to invent new technologies.
- Being able to demand good prices and getting it.
- Being able to just make a whole bunch of shit in bulk.
The Chinese are and always have been dominant in Southeast Asia…but at the same time, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the people of China are happier or more satisfied in life than the Moldovans.
Costa Rica, as example, is just some country. They don’t dominate jack doodle (no offense). Their human development index is 63 out of 189 - not very good. But they’re happier than Americans, Chinese, Moldova, and everyone in the UK. Dominance, technical innovation, etc. are different things from happiness.
Brexit, in practical effect, just turns the UK from being part of a larger body that is able to assert dominance, form better technologies, get the best deals, make shit in bulk, etc. to just being “some country”. But at the moment, they still have all of the technologies still, they still have all the money, many of the connections, etc. Mostly, they just lose membership in a group with a sheer raw number of people. Over time - maybe decades, maybe centuries - that is far more likely to see them ending up backwards and rural, undeveloped and superstitious. But, they’ll still all just be going to work every day, eating food, and making babies. They might be very happy.
It’s a slow process, though.
If the US decides to go the same way and cut itself off from the world, become self-sufficient, rely on only its own populace…again, in a sense, nothing cataclysmic happens. And there’s no reason to expect that anything will go immediately horrible.
General Motors, for example, used to be 30% of the US GDP or workforce or something (I forget the exact metric). That’s a whole lot of moolah and might. From that peak, it took them 50 years to finally go bankrupt due to forming bad deals with their employees, failing to innovate, letting their sub-businesses all compete with each other for no reason, etc.
The Roman Republic, from the time it stopped being a Republic to the time where it split into two, took about 300 years. The Republican system was better than the Imperial. Emperors are strong and able to act quickly, but the wrong guy can really set things back and it’s hard to always find the right guy. Even the right guy can sometimes make the wrong choice, and there’s no one able to check him.
It can take a long time for bad ideas to reveal themselves. Donald Trump is probably not our bad idea. We started to go downhill in the early 70s and Trump is just our Julius Nepos - some idiot who happened to fall into the job, because we allowed things to degrade that far.
While it is true that technology and financial might don’t intrinsically make people happier in life, it is correlated. The human development index is correlated to the human happiness index. It’s not 1:1 but it’s better to be in a modern, developed nation than one which isn’t, on average. If you want your children and your grandchildren to be happy, it’s better if we’re on a path that’s aimed at financial prosperity, not ruralism, and that means staying connected to the world, commanding a larger number of workers, having trade deals with everyone, etc.
Dominance doesn’t make people happier either…so long as no one is dominating them. And, for me at least, that’s the bigger issue.
If I had to choose a town to live in, I would want to live in a nice, peaceful place where I could trust everyone around me and I had freedom to live the way I wanted to live. I wouldn’t want to live in a town with Ken McElroy and always be worrying that I’d encounter him one day, at a grocery store, when he was in a bad mood and wanted to make someone dance.
For better or worse, the major force on our planet, to make sure that the aim of all countries is to stay inside their own borders and try to make their citizens happy and content in life, is the United States. We have been able to create and maintain that position for a half century, and it’s made it so that the human development index for the whole world - not just America - has gone up every year. We organized everything to kill off measles. We’re pushing countries to not consider women and wives to be property. We’re making the world a better and (on average) happier place for most of the rest of the human race.
China wouldn’t.
If the US steps down from our position, the only other game in town to try and continue pushing the world towards improved human rights, improved lawfullness, safety of travel, safety of borders, etc. would be the EU - and they’re just not structured to be able to take on that sort of role and there’s a few people out there working to make sure that it stays that way - e.g., Russia, China, and probably some others, too.
One of the emblems of the United States is a bundle of arrows. Together we are strong, apart we are weak.
One of the core strategies through all of military history is to divide and conquer.
Brexit is awesome-sauce for anyone out there in the world who is annoyed that they have to live in a world that is moving towards peace, technological development, cooperation, and lawfulness. The end of NATO, the throwing up of tariffs, the imposition of sanctions against all countries left and right… Juicy juicy goodness.
The more the world is divided and “self-sufficient” the less you have to be an 800 pound gorilla to get your way. Maybe you just have to be a 400 pound gorilla, or 300 pounds.
If the US turns away from the world and stops leading the way to the future, maybe we’ll be left alone and be allowed to peacefully meander into ruralism. But we could also end up as the 400 pound gorilla’s bitch, taking whatever it feels like dishing out on us.
I mean we may all feel a little bit bad that, as English speakers, we don’t really have to learn a second language in order to get around in the world. But learning Chinese is worse, and I would bet you anything that the number of people studying English as a second language compared to Chinese as a second language, across the planet, is a ratio that’s swinging hard towards China. All of Trump’s actions have just made that switch faster.
I don’t resent the Chinese, but Chinese politics is not based on humanistic philosophy, it’s just a system that’s figured out how to balance robber-baronism with bread-and-circus rule. They keep the people happy and improve the quality of life in the country, but there’s nothing benevolent about that, and their goals abroad don’t extend the “improve the quality of life” goal past their borders.
And this isn’t to say that Trump’s agenda isn’t bad in the short term, either. But, fairly likely, between people refusing to do what he says, the Senate stopping him, and various other mechanisms, he simply hasn’t had the chance to chuck everything into the toilet yet. As said, it took 50 years to tank GM, just because they started from such a high point. It took a year for Trump to flatline the stock market. He’s all set to send it going downhill if he enacts his emergency tariff on Mexico on Monday.
And, lest anyone complain that my post is largely related to International Affairs, I will note that the job of the Federal Government is International Affairs. If y’all are wanting it to run Domestic Affairs, then you should read the Constitution again. The States run things domestically. The Federal government represents us abroad. If Trump doesn’t like foreign affairs, he shouldn’t have run for the job. You might as well compete in an ass kicking contest when you’re a person who hates violence.
So that’s the first thing that he has done, which is bad.