This morning my wife commented favoraby on Heather Cox Richardson’s recent posting. I responded that it really didn’t matter what she - as a committed Dem voter in blue Illinois - thought about it. ALL that matters is what a few 10s-100s of thousands of undecided, not strongly motivated voters thought in 5 or so states.
So I wondered if it would be worth discussing what Dems are doing - or ought to be doing - across the most significant swing states. Or even which are the most important swing states.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania? Possibly Georgia and Arizona? What should Dems be doing when in these states?
I’m pretty much thinking that if anyone is undecided or unmotivated at this point, there is little that can be done earlier than a month or 2 before the election. Or shortly before mail/early voting begins. My wife feels the Dems need to start now to “build momentum.” What do you think?
While your OP is not saying this, beware of the right-wing talking point “The Biden campaign is ignoring the swing states!!!”. That talking point was being drummed up by some trocks in another thread here a few weeks ago:
One of my favorite election pundits, Simon Rosenberg, has written recently about the building Biden-campaign ground game in battleground states. I’m pressed for time now but can provide a link later.
Right. I’m not saying that at all. But I am of the mindset that very little is more important than getting out the vote in 3-5 states. So I was curious what folk thought were appropriate actions - and timing of such actions - to accomplish that.
So much that is getting national coverage - like the debates, and the conventions - are IMO pretty much BS. I suspect there will be more traction from states that also have strong down-ticket races, or referenda on issues like abortion.
Biden hosted a state visit from Kenya and is travelling to France. I doubt such foreign relations matters will sway many folk who are disinterested enough that they do not yet have firm opinions/convictions. He might be better off visiting swing states, or hosting visits from officials/interest groups in those states.
Is there any “issue” that Biden has any influence over, that could affect the vote? If so, what would be the opportune timing? How much would what economic indicators have to move (not that he can affect that) to achieve how much benefit?
Not a terribly useful response - but I assume you knew that. Currently “doing the job of being President” will be of little use, should doing so increase the chances of Trump being elected in Nov. And, if I’m not mistaken, at least a couple of times in the past sitting Presidents were able to do their jobs while - at the same time - running re-election campaigns.
Wilmington, Delaware — Inside President Joe Biden’s reelection headquarters here, a sign boasts of some of the campaign’s most significant metrics: Pennsylvania, 24; Michigan, 30; Wisconsin 44.
These are not poll numbers, but rather the latest – and growing – tally of campaign offices already open in three battleground states. It’s a rare bright spot in Biden’s rematch with former President Donald Trump and the most tangible example of how the campaign is using its fundraising muscle to build an entirely different operation from four years ago.
“Our job at this point is to build infrastructure in all of our pathways to victory,” said Dan Kanninen, the Biden campaign’s battleground states director. “Razor-thin margins in lots of these states, and I want to press the advantage against Donald Trump. They have not built field infrastructure. They have not had a presence in these states.”
President Biden’s campaign is investing in dozens of field offices in some of the nation’s reddest counties, pressing its early money advantage to establish political beachheads in hostile territory.
Why it matters: Biden’s team isn’t under the illusion it can win these rural counties Donald Trump won in 2020. It’s fighting to cut into Republicans’ margins — particularly in swing states such as Wisconsin.
The goal is to establish a ground presence early in the election cycle and keep rural Biden supporters motivated — while letting voters dismayed by Trump or curious about Biden know they’re not be alone.
Zoom in: Biden’s campaign has opened more than 150 offices and hired more than 400 staffers in the seven battleground states and will have 200 offices and 500 staffers there by the end of May, the campaign says.
In Wisconsin, Biden now has 46 offices across 42 counties, including 23 where Trump won by double digits in 2020.
…
May 10, 2024
Mr. Biden has a head start on former President Donald Trump in outreach and organizing support with Black communities. As part of a $14 million ad buy announced on Tuesday, the Biden campaign said there would be a seven-figure investment on ad buys in Black, Hispanic and AAPI media. The campaign says it will also have 46 offices across the battleground state, with headquarters in Milwaukee, a city where 39% of the population is Black according to the U.S. Census.
…
May 29, 2024
PHILADELPHIA — President Joe Biden renewed his election-year pitch to Black voters on Wednesday, lashing out at Donald Trump’s “MAGA lies” and saying the winner of this year’s White House race will make crucial decisions, including on nominees for the Supreme Court, that could affect the country for decades.
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, in a joint appearance at a Philadelphia boarding school, thanked Black voters in Pennsylvania and beyond for being the lynchpin to their 2020 victory and they made the case that their agenda has had an enormous impact on improving lives for Black voters.
Not true, of course. There are also swing congressional districts, and even some states that won’t swing in the Presidential race but might for the Senate. We ignore those at our peril.
You run your ground game a month or two before the election. You set it up much earlier than that. You need to recruit and train all those folks who will be going door to door, and design your ads (both on TV and the Internet, and things like yard signs), and raise money, and do research on where that money will have the most impact, and so on. All of that stuff is going on constantly, and would have no hope if you didn’t start until two months out.
Something else to note is that state-level party apparatuses have a big role in conducting Biden’s presidential campaign. Biden and Harris don’t have to constantly be making battleground-state appearances for their ticket to make inroads.
From the Comments section:
Cheryl Johnson May 30
VP Harris is doing a great job on the Reproductive Rights front.
There are also lots of local events in swing states that don’t get the attention of the national press. About a month ago I went uptown to attend a press conference at the NCDP office where two women who suffered adverse consequences of a pregnancy gone wrong in red states were giving their testimony along an OBGYN who specializes in high-risk pregnancies, a spokeperson from a local abortion clinic, and a bunch pro-choice female elected officials and candidates. Two local news stations, our local NPR affiliate and a local independent newspaper attended the press conference. I spoke with the staffer on the NC Biden campaign and they were replicating this press conference at several other NCDP offices around the state.
What’s hard for the workaday voter trying to follow this stuff is that you have to jump hip-deep into slanted information silos to even catch wind of this stuff. The mainstream media is too often committed to the Big Story Du Jour! to report closely on the state of the campaigns.
I’m…honestly not sure what to say to this. If this is really your perspective, I just think we have a fundamental disagreement here.
So there’s no reason to go to France over Ohio? International diplomacy is a waste of time compared to doing anything to defeat Trump? Like I said, I think there’s fundamental disagreement here.
I’ve said it before and I will say it again - Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and NE District 2) are the key for Biden to get to 270 and a win. These are states that are at least D leaning so they would be the smartest places to focus. It looks like they are doing this since Biden has opened some offices and made some visits. And add to it the fact the Michigan GOP has pretty much imploded recently. So that looks good so far.
Arizona and Nevada are should be winnable and the Ds seem to be making moves there as well.
There have been pundits as well as posters on these boards who have pushed the idea polls have no meaning this far out from the election. Now that we are at 5 months out I think there need to be serious efforts starting soon and planning for major GOTV efforts or we will have DJT2 coming our way. Of course, others may think it is still too early to pay attention any of these things.
I think the rational assumption is that you have to balance your job duties as POTUS with trying to get reelected. It’s a tough balancing act and if you lean too far one way or the other it will be a disaster.
Ignore the campaign completely? You are defeated and now you get to watch the other guy drive the country off a cliff.
Focus everything on the campaign? Then things get screwed up under your watch, which just gives more ammo to your opponent, and you lose anyway.
As I said, there is a middle ground that any incumbent up for reelection has to deal with.