[QUOTE=NinetyWt]
Right. In wet cycles you can experience quite a few extreme rainfall events. I’d like to see the nomenclature changed to referring to them by their recurrence interval. That is, the rainfall amount has an X chance of being equalled or exceeded in a given year. In other words, 100-yr = 1% chance storm; 500-yr = 0.2% chance storm, etc. There is a move afoot to do that, it’s slowly catching on.
That way, people would stop thinking “one every hundred years”, “one every five hundred years” etc.
Another way to look at it is this: we expect every square inch of New Orleans to experience X amount of rain in X hours during at least one event within a randomly chosen span of 100 years. It could rain that much over on Canal Street one month and then over on Carrollton the next month.
Just for fun, I looked at data for Twelvemile Bayou near Dixie, LA during the period 1942 to 1995. Looking at the monthly mean flow in cubic feet per second, I see that the monthly mean flows for the year 1995 are greater than the monthly mean flows for the entire period of record. In other words, you are exactly right, 1995 was a wetter-than-average year for Louisiana.
Katrina was a mixed bag - a certain event on a wind scale, a different event on a storm surge scale, a different event on a rainfall scale.
I’ll stop being boring now.
BTW, my sis graduated from Tulane about 20 years ago and still works there. My daughter was all set to enter their Architecture School but got Katrina’d.
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Wow, I wouldn’t want to tangle with you on any future weather threads. What is your job? I am just happy that my 13 year old memories turned out to be half-way correct.
Based on memory, I still say that the rainfall wasn’t evenly distributed over twelve hours. My friend and I left to get beer in my small pickup truck right before it started raining. Within 45 minutes, we were trying to get back and the flooding got worse by the second and major roads like St. Charles were impassible in spots. We weaved through neighborhoods because it was truly scary and we had no choice. People were already on their porches screaming at the few vehicles that were moving because the wakes we caused were flooding their first floor. Little did any of us know at the time that it was all hopeless. My door seals held perfectly even when we hit so much water that the headlights were submerged. Relieved to get back, I spied a sloped and raised flowerbed at a neighbors house. I just turned and floored it to the top of it. All of my roommates cars were destroyed as were most others on the street. We literally had cars floating away. It was a sight to behold.