It’s a non-binding referendum with a razor-thin outcome. I’ve heard that Boris Johnson really sees the vote as a chance to renegotiate the UK’s contract with the EU, and even if he’s the next PM he’s in no hurry to invoke Article 50. Two or three years are far too short to renegotiate one treaty, much less hundreds. So, what are the odds the UK will actually go through with this?
FTR, my skin in this is that my oldest is engaged to a fellow in Surrey. I suggested they move to Scotland, not just because I like the Scots. He’s Japanese and they met online. Gotta love the internet!
Dunno. I thought the referendum was going to be close, but the other side of the line, so I am clearly not the best prognosticator, however, I think it might go a bit like this:
[ul]
[li]UK threatens to leave and sets a future date for invoking article 50[/li][li]Nothing much happens[/li][li]Date arrives, some last-minute bullshit delays the invocation by a few weeks or months[/li][li]Article 50 eventually invoked[/li][li]A bunch of ‘oh shit’ negotiation and bargaining takes place[/li][li]A deal is struck, the UK cancels its exit[/li][li]Less than 100% of the terms of the deal are actually met/delivered, but by now, everyone is very confused and either thinks they got more or less what they wanted, or appears unreasonable[/li][/ul]
100%. While referendums should be treated more as indicative rather than an all or nothing type of vote, imo, this one was clearly stated as effectively binding, and that’s how the rules were set before the voting.
What I wonder about is how long the UK can/will postpone invoking article 50. If Johnson becomes PM he could very well be looking for a way to backtrack, the story has always been that his pro-leave position was only based on self-serving motives anyway. If the pound and the stock markets continue to fall throughout the summer this could become an attractive option. But once they invoke article 50 it’ll be harder / more expensive to turn things around.
The EU wants this to move quickly, but so far I don’t know what exactly that is supposed to mean. Next week? Next month? Before the end of the year?
Boris issued a statement. Reassuring both sides that Britain will always have close ties to Europe. I won’t try to summarize what he said. You can read it for yourself.
I think Brexit will happen. There are too many votes to just ignore. What gets negotiated depends on who is the new PM.
The EU can want whatever they want. But nothing happens until the British government invokes Article 50 and starts the process of negotiating the terms of the exit. Until then, the UK remains a full member of the EU.
Yes, that’s the way I see it. It’s up to the exiting country to initiate the process. It’s greatly in the EU’s interest to keep the UK in. They should be helping the UK look for options on staying, not forcing them out.
There are opinions being voiced that the EU wants to hit the UK hard during the negotiations to discourage others from having their own referendums. Interestingly, the German Foreign Minister was one of the people calling for the UK to get out ASAP. But Merkel is being the voice of reason, saying there is no rush.
That’s simply democracy. The 2012 presidential election has similar numbers. I don’t see how Obama’s victory is any more ridiculous than the leave victory.
But the UK isn’t deferring serving its Art. 50 notice in an attempt to stay in; it’s deferring serving its Art. 50 notice in an attempt to improve its negotiating position when the exit negotiations do start.
You can see why the EU would be seriously pissed off about this. Whatever the impact of the exit on the UK, it’s destabilising for the EU, and makes for uncertainty. This is not something the EU wants to have prolonged, and their desire for a rapid resolution is both predictable and entirely reasonable.
If the UK doesn’t serve an Art 50 notice because they have decided not to leave after all, that would be one thing. But the stated position of the UK government is as it always has been; the outcome of the referendum will be implemented. Given that, delay in serving the Art. 50 notice just looks like posturing by the UK to the detriment of the remaining EU countries with which it stays it wants a friendly relationship. This is not the way to build a friendly relationship.
You hit a hurdle at the second last step. Once the Art. 50 notice is served, UK exit will happen, unless all 28 member states agree that it will not. Thus the UK can’t unilaterally “cancel its exit”. The UK would have to eat some serious humble pie, and abandon any notion of using this kind of brinksmanship to extort any kind of carveout, sweet deal, etc for the UK, in order to have any chance of getting unanimous agreement from the other 27 to its remaning in the EU.
Unless Britain gets an awesome deal, staying in the EU would cause an extreme public reaction. Those who voted for Brexit are already disgruntled, thinking the government doesn’t represent them. REneging on Brexit will prove that the government doesn’t represent them.