I’ve heard various claims. What are the facts (as known at this time).
Who is paying the $300,000,000,000? I’ve seen some sources say it will be the United States government (ie American taxpayers). But other sources are saying other countries will join the United States in paying for the fund. Are there other countries and who are they? And other sources are saying that some of the money will be paid by private individuals. Who are these individuals?
How will the money be used? Will it be given to the Iranian government to spend as it wishes? Will it be given to some other organization, which will supervise how the money is spent? If it’s “invested” in projects in Iran, will there be some ownership by the people paying the money?
The money apparently has not been paid yet. The Trump administration is promising to develop a plan within sixty days on how the money will be paid. What happens if the Trump administration doesn’t follow through on its promise and doesn’t pay the money?
I’m looking for the facts of the situation as it exists not a discussion of whether it’s a good idea.
I suspect even Trump et al. have no idea where this money will come from, where it will go, and who will control it. It’s just a BS number they tossed out there because Trump thought he could “sell” it.
But all of the technical details of how that might happen, and on what timeline, must still be ironed out in the 60-day period of negotiations that commence after the scheduled signing takes place on Friday.
Trump has also said the US will not provide any money to Iran. This is a key issue for the president, who has been critical of the Obama administration’s $1.7bn payment to Iran in 2016.
Trump seems obsessed with trying to frame this as better than the deal that Obama made. He’s still living in the past 10 years ago.
As to where the money will come from:
But according to the text of this agreement, the US will work “with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion” for Iran’s reconstruction.
A senior US official said the deal does not commit the US to paying Iran a single cent. But the actual language in the agreement is opaque, and appears to leave the door open for the US to eventually make some payments to Iran as part of a negotiated settlement to the war.
Essentially, they’ll try to get others to pay for it. Trump really wants to get others to pay for it, because showing more wasteful spending to fix a problem he created just before the midterm elections, after the huge waste spent on a war nobody asked for and few people support, while the economy is struggling, that would be a disaster for Republicans.
So, I’m sure he’ll try to use his “master negotiator” abilities to get others to pay it. The problem is that this persona of being a great deal-maker is a fiction he created for his brand, and isn’t real. I doubt he will have the ability to do it. And it looks like if the US has to pay some or all of the money itself, it could do so without violating the agreement. With the incompetency this administration has shown, my expectation is that this is what will happen, and Trump is going to have to fall back on his tactic of repeating lies over and over again as his only defense.
This clause is point 6 in the MOU. All the details have yet to be worked out and are part of the 60 days of negotiations. Pretty much anything can result, including nothing at all.
The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
So by the end of the summer Iran could have access to $300 billion for economic development. This is a huge sum of money that far exceeds the value of Iran’s frozen assets or what it would make through years of charging fees for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. It is also a large figure considering Trump frequently complains that Iran was given access to a much smaller amount of its own money after signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It’s notable that this financed $300 billion — investment money that Trump has said would come from Gulf states — appears to be distinct from money Iran could raise through the sale of its oil, but no details have been provided.
And clause 13 puts details off until several other clauses are settled first.
After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
Well, Mexico was going to pay for the wall to keep themselves out of the US, so if we want to make this truly parallel that idea, Trump would have to get Iran to pay for it.
I need to revise this. What I really expect to happen is for this whole deal to fall apart when the US can’t or won’t deliver, and the war will resume.
I like how we’re going to spend $300 billion on Iran’s reconstruction and previously spent some amount of money on the reconstruction of Afghanistan. It would be really nice if we’re going to be so free with reconstruction money to spend those sums on the reconstruction of the homeland.
More likely, the “details to be worked out within 60 days” will be that the US has to pay the whole sum, and that Iran is responsible for enforcing its own lack of a nuclear program (but they pinky-swear they’ll stop, promise!).
I think even more likely than that is that no agreement is reached at all in 60 days. The $300B is just something that Iran wanted in there to help them sell it at home.
This was 100% a play to get oil prices to drop.
It’s an attempt by Trump to “undo” what he started. He either realized that Netanyahu played him to get him to blow up shit in Iran or someone convinced him that continuing down this path would make November even worse for the GOP.
What happens when the 60 days expires is unknown. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a complete return to the status antebellum (i.e. Hormuz open, Iran’s nuclear program uncontrolled, blockade lifted, some Iranian funds unfrozen). The GOP will hope everybody just forgets about it before the midterms.
All of this is how I’m leaning. There’s no way the US will pay $300 billion. It’s possible that some companies are ready to invest in Iran, but honestly I suspect the lion’s share of investment in Iran to be coming from China, not from US or its allies. Even if there are US companies who are interested, Iran’s got no interest in strengthening the US; they have a very strong interest in strengthening the US’s main global rival.
Trump will declare victory, declare himself “the boss” and a master negotiator, and the only analysis allowed among Republicans will be “Look at our magnificent leader.”
[Sarcasm ON] Has Trump made enough* out of the Presidency to pay this himself? [Sarcasm OFF]
e.g. licensing deals; real‑estate transactions, crypto-related ventures; selling Trump-branded merchandise; payment and hosting of political events at Trump-owned properties; media/content deals
This raises the point that Iran was involved in this negotiation. I assume the Iranian government is aware that a promise from Donald Trump to pay three hundred billion dollars at some future point is not worth much. Presumably there were sold on the other parts of the deal like recovering frozen assets and being given control of the Strait of Hormuz.
But I wonder if Iran plans on making an issue of the three hundred billion in the future. Let’s say it’s a couple of years from now and Iran tests a nuclear weapon. There will be international protests, led by the United States, but Iran will be able to say “Sure, we agreed not to develop nuclear weapons. But that was part of a negotiated deal where we got three hundred billion dollars in exchange. We never got that money. So the agreement was effectively rescinded and we weren’t bound by it.”
Yes, this. The purpose of the “deal” on Iran’s side is to buy time and on Trump’s side it is to manufacture headlines to fuck with the markets. The actual contents of the “agreement” are meaningless to both negotiators.
