By that logic, they won before the war started.
Before the war, Trump could claim that he would negotiate a great treaty. And absent any evidence, his followers could choose to believe him.
Now everyone, including his followers, can see that Trump failed when he actually tried to negotiate a deal that wasn’t part of a reality show script.
But in theory the US Government aint paying out a dime. The $300B is just as illusionary as Iran getting rid of it’s nuke programs. All lies.
Under the Obama agreement, there were inspections of Iran’s nuclear processing centers by outside agents of the IAEA. This is no longer in effect under the Trump deal. Now we just have a promise from Iran that it won’t produce material for nuclear weapons with no outside monitoring.
When those underground enrichment facilities were bombed, it probably scattered the enriched uranium and buried it under tons of rubble. Gathering it all back up or accounting for all of it could be an impossible task.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think that anyone is currently suggesting that the underground elements of the facilities were severely enough effected to cause the loss of the 60% enriched uranium. They just lost the facilities to continue enrichment to 90%, which would be required for a nuclear weapon. Also, I believe the enriched uranium would be gaseous uranium hexafluoride, so if it was “scattered” it definitely would not be easily recoverable.
I know that deals with Trump are worthless. He doesn’t do quid pro quo, once he gets his quid you are never seeing your quo.
But that’s not what I’m talking about.
There seems to be an assumption that the 300B “investment fund” was a part of the deal that benefits Iran, and that it was something Iran wanted as part of the deal.
I’m saying it’s something the US wanted, and that deal was a pot sweetener for the US. I’m guessing the prospect of the big “investment fund” was the entire reason that Kushner and Witkoff were involved.
Let’s say I start an investment fund to benefit you. I give you $5000 as my “investment”, and in return I get half your paycheck for the rest of your life. Even though you are the one initially getting the money, the benefit of the investment primarily goes to me and even if I am totally without honor, there’s no reason for me to renege on the deal.
This is an exaggerated example, but it’s similar to the kind of deals that capital management companies make all the time, and that’s the model I think they are following
If that’s what Trump wanted, that’s what he would have said. There’s no way that Trump states an extortion demand in a way that makes him look weak.
This is true in most cases because the other side is in a weaker position and ultimately has to shower him in face-saving concessions. Iran can always close the strait again and Trump has shown he’s unwilling to put boots on the ground and has no other way to put leverage on them. He has to pay them off unless hes willing to accept their control of the strait.
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What is this based on? Trump’s history of being a crafty businessman? (As opposed to Trump’s history of claiming he’s a crafty businessman.)
I doubt there are many businessmen anxious to invest money in Iran. This isn’t like Iraq in 2003 where American troops were occupying the country and American businessmen had a free hand to loot the local economy.
Any bets on a U.S. loan guarantee? The Gulf states put money into Iran, Iran defaults on the debt, and the Gulf states present the bill to the U.S. Treasury, probably after the Trump Administration has passed into history so the Republicans can complain about Democrats paying all this money to Muslims.
Does Iran pay Kushner’s commission?
I think you’re right, but I think it’s simpler. The $300 billion will go to no-bid contracts to build mega projects in Iran with no oversight,. Maybe half of it will get grifted right off the top.
Trump probably hopes that some of the funds come from gulf nations, but if it doesn’t oh well, it will come from taxpayer dollars. They are stripping the US of assets, not Iran.
It might be even simpler than that: what if the $300 billion never goes anywhere, and Trump just wants to eventually mention it?
“Yeah, we’re going back to bombing them; there was a deal, a $300 billion deal, people had never seen a deal like this, they agreed to $300 billion, they would’ve gotten $300 billion, nobody can say I wasn’t fair — it was more than fair, nobody can say I wasn’t generous — and they’ve turned it down, they’ve broken the deal, I guess they don’t want the $300 billion; I left it up to them, and they made their choice, and a civilization ends tonight.”
How did that work out for Trump the first time?
I don’t see any reason why Trump’s second Iran war would go any better than his first. Probably worse, he’s short of supplies now.
So Iran closes the Strait again, gas prices go up to eight dollars a gallon, Trump kills a bunch of Iranian civilians, Iran doesn’t surrender, Iran kills some more American troops, Trump makes empty threats, a month goes by, and Trump has to announce that he’s reached another ceasefire agreement. But this time he’s had to agreed to a trillion dollar payout.
It didn’t. I’m not saying it’d work; I’m saying it’d be on brand.
True. But with the midterm elections already looking shaky, I think if Trump starts giving orders to launch another debacle in Iran, the Republicans might finally take a look at the 25th Amendment.
Maybe this was alluded to up-thread, but surely Congress would have a say in any American taxpayer money going to Iran? And I have a hard time seeing how the Gulf states would agree to the $300bn.
You’d think. But Trump has repeatedly spent large sums of money for stupid reasons without seeking Congressional approval beforehand or facing Congressional censure afterwards.
Granted, this might be too large a sum for too stupid a reason and the Republicans in Congress might finally decide to stand up to him. (Out of self-interest not out of principle.)
Yeah, Congress has to actually give a crap.
The Republicans aren’t very happy with Trump right now, so maybe they’ll do something this time, but I’m not counting on it.