I’ve long claimed 40%, and still do so. Your number?
I’m beyond shocked but I have to say 50/50.
I blame the Republican primary Candidates for not coming together and putting their support behind a single candidate. Give that single person enough support to beat Trump.
I really can’t explain how a person with such a failed 1st term presidency and all the criminal investigations is still a viable candidate. I’m afraid it says something pretty negative about many American voters.
I am so afraid that he will be elected. It was bad last time, this time would be worse. There will be civil war if he gets elected.
What’s on the table in Vegas?
I’ve been trying to check, and the market appears to be around 45% probability.
What I’m not too clear on is whether that’s an antepost “all in run or not” bet, where you lose your stake if he doesn’t win for any reason. I think it probably is, I can’t see any other sensible way to set up the market, but I’d like to verify because it obviously makes a huge difference.
Link won’t work from the US, but it shows a price of 2.2 (decimal odds) at Betfair in the UK.
That would make it 45.4%. The Betfair market is definitely 1 winner, everybody else is a loser, no voids.
As much as it curls my colon, I put it around 70%.
mmm
I don’t believe in making up a percent on something that cannot yet be measured.
RealClearPolitics.com polling average four years ago (1/21/2020):
Biden 51.2 percent
Trump 44.0 percent
RealClearPolitics.com poling average today (1/21/2024):
Biden 44.6 percent
Trump 46.6 percent
So Biden is, as of today behind. Roughly the same has been true for months. This means to me that Trump will probably win. But there’s no way to put a percent on that word probably.
What about Nate Silver’s old probability model? I think it can’t be applied yet for technical reasons.
I’m going for gut feelings, not detailed analyses of court cases, unforseeables, a complex litany of tchotchkes. Precisely since it can’t be measured. I’m not asking for reasons or justification in this thread.
I’m reminded of an argument between Chris Sununu and Bill Maher sometime last year, where Sununu was adamant the Trump wouldn’t win the Republican nomination, and Maher was adamant that he absolutely would, but could not win in the general election. Maher appears to be on track as the better prognosticator here.
I suspect that, regardless of any criminal convictions before November, Trump already has too much negativity surrounding him to win in a general election. But the fact that he’ll be running at all is deeply disturbing, and Biden’s age and unpopularity make it even worse. Makes me wonder if Biden shouldn’t step aside for the good of the country and let a more popular candidate run (and no, that wouldn’t be Kamala Harris). It’s almost impossible to overestimate how utterly disastrous a second Trump term would be. It’s entirely plausible that he might never even leave.
That’s my fear too. Reelecting Trump could be the fuel for many insurgency groups to spring up. Most would offer peaceful demonstrations and a few groups might promote violence.
I’m hoping the Independents will understand the need to vote and make certain Trump isn’t reelected.
I say10%. A criminal conviction, his doubling down on killing Roe, and his obvious mental decline will combine to do him in.
My guess is 30%. But it’s just based on feelings, since there isn’t any reliable data this early that would tell us anything.
I live in the South.
Local politicians (State & Local) are damned cold to him, but give chilly lip service.
But Tennessee has a very large population shift of folks moving here.
National odds, 30% & dropping.
Might go to 25% by mid-February.
Maybe 30% or so? Still too high for comfort, but basically the only thing that has changed in his favor since 2020 is Biden’s approval rating, and I think a lot of that is sort of vague, vibey disapproval, much of it from the left, that will evaporate once people stop comparing Biden to their fantasy ideal president and start comparing him to his real-world opponent. (Which is what happened with Obama in 2012, although I’ll grant that Obama wasn’t as unpopular as Biden is right now.) Right now, most people aren’t really paying attention, don’t realize how likely it is that Trump will be the nominee, and have had lots of time to forget about the things they don’t like about him.
OTOH, there are plenty of disasters that could befall Biden in the next ten months – recession / botched handling of a crisis / some visible health issue like Hillary collapsing at a 9/11 ceremony. I suppose the last one is equal-opportunity and could happen to Trump as well, but there are a lot more things that CAN go wrong for a sitting president, and I’m worried about those.
I was quite surprised to see this out of Davos. It’s anecdotal, so take it with a large grain of salt, but the article claims that among US business leaders the consensus seemed to be
(a) that Trump probably wins;
(b) it’s not that great a concern.
My gut says over 50%. I’ll say 65%. That’s just how it feels to me, and I’m prepared for another 4 years of a dumpster fire. Like I live in Chicago, a safe Democratic stronghold, and I just know so few people who are interested in voting for Biden. I mean, this was true last election, as I happen to live out in a part of town that is more of a mix of Republican and Democrat, but it just even seems moreso now.
I asked Bing AI what it thought it said around 60%
I just asked Bing and the only number it gave me was 12.5%, citing Oddschecker. So let’s not just ask AIs but support our figures somehow.
ChatGPT refused to make a prediction. Does this mean that ChatGPT is less intelligent or more intelligent?