LMAO. Tells you all you need to know about the online betting markets
So what are the odds at?
Most betting sites have settled their presidential election bets, but at least two remain open and have not settled, according to Reuters, though this goes back to November 12:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5
This is my favourite part:
“I’m a loyal Trump supporter and I put my money where my mouth is,” said Chris French, a 53-year-old mortgage broker from West Sussex in Britain. After losing a 50 pounds ($66) bet on Trump with a bookie that settled bids once TV networks called the presidency for Biden, French placed a new 10 pounds bet on Trump this week with an online exchange that still accepted wagers.
“Trump was so far ahead on the election day. I believe things will turn once fraud is uncovered,” French added.
I wish the unrelentingly tenacious Mr. French the best of luck! 
Just the £10 this time though…
Your’e telling me that there are betting markets just giving away free money to people who bet on Biden right now.
And you’re posting about it here rather than scooping up that free money?
No, he is saying they will take Trump supporters money. Title says you can bet on Trump to win, not on Biden to win or lose.
Where are these betting markets that are only taking one side of bet?
If they exist, what does it tell us about betting markets? That they like money?
Is that all I need to know about betting markets? That they like money?
The OP doesn’t make a ton of sense and I don’t find it believable.
Lance aren’t you the guy who thinks betting markets are the best thing since sliced bread? And that they are way more accurate than guys like Nate Silver?
I think betting markets provide good data, and I know for a fact that a forecast derived solely from PredictIt data outperformed 538 at every point from late spring up to election day for the 2020 presidential election.
Right now 01:25 GMT 29/11/2020 you can still lay Donald Trump on Betfair at 23. (you get £1 of somebody else’s money for every £22 you risk if anyone other than DT is next US president, minus Betfair fees)
You can also back Joe Biden at 1.04 (You risk £25 to get £1 of somebody else’s money, minus Betfair fees)
OK, so you have one data point that showed betting markets doing better than 538. And now @Bijou_Drains has one data point showing them doing much, much worse. That’s hardly conclusive.
I should clarify, this is based on who got the Electoral votes on the 3 Nov election. If Biden dies and president Harris is inaugurated, for this market Biden is still the winner. Your lay bet on Trump only loses if when the dust settles he is offically declared to have a majority of EV votes, “faithless electors” don’t count.
Gambling addicts are far from the smartest people around. Same as most other addicts. you can tell a gambling addict if he bets on exhibition NFL games where nobody cares who wins and most of the players won’t be on the team on opening day.
I have two entire election forecasts compared over months. That’s more than one data point.
@Bijou_Drains has a non-specific complaint about something he thought he saw somewhere. That’s less than one data point.
PredictIt has about 40 different markets open where you can still bet on Trump. Most contracts have been fluctuating between 10 cents and 14 cents. where a winning bet gets you a dollar, minus fees. Right now it will cost you 84 cents to buy “No” on the contract “Will Trump win any of Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia?”
The market for Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in 2020? closed 5 days ago while people were still paying 8 cents for “Yes”.
People are still paying 7 or 8 cents on the contract that Trump will get 280 electoral votes MORE than Biden, meaning Trump will get 409 EVs or more.
This isn’t about gambling addicts. They are deluded Trump supporters who think massive fraud is going to be uncovered. They believe absolutely everything that Trump’s lawyers are pushing out. They’re waiting for the kraken.
You have forecasts for one single election. That’s one data point. Everything you’re seeing is a reflection of the pair of facts that Trump did a little better than 538 expected, and betters favored Trump a little more than 538 did. That could have indicated that betters were a little more in touch with reality than 538 was, or it could have indicated that they had some other erroneous reason for favoring Trump.
Bijou_Drains is also looking at forecasts for that one single election, where the betting markets are still favoring Trump more than 538 does. Except that these “forecasts” are being made after the event they’re forecasting, and they’re also favoring Trump more than actual reality does. That’s a pretty clear sign that we can rule out the “more in touch with reality” explanation.
The simplest explanation at this point is that the betting markets contain a mix of rational people and irrational people. The rational people were betting based on the best available information, which in this case is 538. They’re not adding any new information to the mix. The irrational people were all betting for Trump no matter what because they think he’s the Messiah or something. They’re also not adding any new information to the mix, but their presence was skewing the overall results Trumpward. Now, the rational people have all left the market, and all that’s left is the irrational people. The premise of “wisdom of the crowds” is that the irrational betters will be randomly distributed between the possibilities, and so largely cancel each other out, but that doesn’t work here, because Trump monopolizes irrationality.
This is a good point. If bookies aren’t accepting new bets on Biden, it means they’re aware the election is over and Biden won. Bookies aren’t stupid; they’re not letting people place bets on a sure thing.
But some gamblers are stupid. They still want to place bets on Trump, even though Trump has already lost. Bookies see people willing to give them free money and some of them are taking it.
If I really wanted to place a bet on Tampa Bay winning the 2020 World Series or San Francisco winning Super Bowl LIV, I could probably find a bookie willing to take my money.
Betfair is an exchange, so they’re not losing money under any circumstances, but there is still a lot of money there from punters still backing Trump. To my mind getting £1 back for each £22 you risk is almost like free money, but I’m still too risk averse to take it up. I think it’s a great deal for anybody who likes a little risk though.
This is false.
Also false.
Those markets have hit the cap on the number of traders.
Is that what @Bijou_Drains is doing? Can you link to the post? I can’t find a post in this thread where BD mentions forecasts.
There’s currently nearly £10 million available on Biden at 1.04, (that would yield £400,000-2% fee so £392,000 of “free money” available to someone with a spare £10M, who can legally bet on Betfair, and is willing to take a miniscule risk.