It seems that the teams, the NBA, the stadiums, and the TV network all have a very strong financial incentive for the playoffs to go for more games rather than fewer. (ticket sales, TV ads, etc)
However, it seems to me highly unlikely for there to be a “conspiracy” to make this happen, because how would the logistics work? Who would be in on it?
What do you guys think?
Zero.
Let’s look at last night’s game: if not for the 11-31 1st quarter, it would have been a close game. That deficit wasn’t created by officiating, it was created by Cleveland simply playing much, much better than Golden State. For it to be “rigged,” the league, or whoever, would have to bribe, blackmail, or otherwise coerce a dozen millionaires who are playing for a championship to play shitty for a quarter. That seems highly unlikely, at best.
Or have a referee on the take, or give orders to call ticky-tack fouls, resulting in the league MVP fouling out, or any number of possibilities.
More than any other sport, basketball is subject to the vagaries of officiating, which we’ve known for years isn’t always on the up-and-up. The players don’t need to be in on it.
I’ve said it before and will again; if there was systematic rigging, the statistical evidence would be in our faces. Sites like fivethirtyeight and the various “prospectus” sites and any number of sports geeks would have absolutely crushed the hell out any story like this ages ago. It would not be a matter of suspicion; it would have been proven.
The propensity of officials to call games well or poorly, favour home teams or away, and stars versus scrubs is already extremely well documented. Why would a league effort to throw elimination games in order to prolong series not be similarly proven by now?
Hell, let’s look at last night’s facts: Game Six is a particularly terrible example to try to prove a fix, inasmuch as both teams were called for exactly 25 personal fouls, and Golden State had only three fewer foul shots while losing by 15. If the refs were trying to fix it for Cleveland they did a brutal job, though as pointed out Golden State made it rather unnecessary by not showing up until the second quarter. Cleveland won because they shot better, as is plainly evident from the numbers; they shot over 50%, while Golden State shot 40 percent. That’s skill. One team shot well, the other didn’t.
Or, well, how often do the Finals go to seven? Not very often. Of the last ten Finals, only two have gone seven games. One was a sweep, and three were 4-1. The NBA’s plan to extend Finals series isn’t working out very well I guess.
Oh, I’m not saying (outright) that the NBA is fixed, I’m saying that it has the appearance of being fixed to enough people that the rumors can’t be completely dispelled.
It always comes back to Tim Donaghy. The games that he fixed? None of the vaunted statistical gurus noticed until the story broke, and then they collectively said “Wow, it was so obvious!” Except it wasn’t obvious, it was just another game decided by the refs, one of a hundred of them.
Until that changes, until the superstars stop getting the calls that others don’t, until they call everything and let the players stop getting away with everything, people will see bias, and where they see bias they see conspiracies.
From Tim Donaghy’s wikipedia page:
Of course, he is not the most reliable guy, but he knows a but more about the inner workings of the NBA and its refereeing than most of us here.
I hadn’t known that this was an allegation that was made publicly (that the NBA seeks to extend the series). I thought it was just something fans talked about.
So if I had a gold mine producing billion$ of dollar$ I’d collude with all the other gold mines, and gold refineries, and gold distributors to increase my profits by a few % even though it would require hundreds of people only loosely associated and largely in competition to keep totally quiet about it despite the fact that I could lose everything if anyone found out. It’s certainly not like I can increase my profits by selling more overpriced gold mining hats and shirts and beer. So I’d do it. And I’d just go out of my way to make sure that even though people were always suspicious that the actual results didn’t show any clear difference in profits making the risk even greater for a non-existent return, but I’d just do it anyway knowing I’m getting away with something. I’m sure all the others would use the same reasoning and go along with me too so I wouldn’t hesitate to bring it up with them.
Translated from the original snark:
There are too many people involved, too much risk, not enough motivation, and no discernible results.
Former NBA commissioner David Stern certainly didn’t help perception when he said that his dream NBA Finals matchup was Lakers vs. Lakers. Not only was it a wildly inappropriate statement from a commissioner who should be unbiased, but it also drove the perception that the NBA was all about ratings and the marquee teams.
Someone once suggested that referees should be forced to stand behind a podium, post-game, just like the players and coaches, and face the questions of the media.
I think it would certainly make corrupt officiating more difficult.
Is it really that corrupt? I’m sure there’s bias and incompetence, and some stupidly defined rules and management, but how often to refs actually sell out?
Las Vegas odds makers would have to be in on the scheme … and either the Nevada Gaming Commission is in on it, or it’s done so well that the books don’t show it …
8 of the past 20 Finals have been 4 or 5 games …
I’m just not seeing the required 5% inconsistencies needed to spin out a decent conspiracy theory.
Donaghy has already been heard from, claiming that the NBA suspended Draymond Green to help the Cavaliers.
With him, you get the sense that he’s so bitter about having been outed as a crook, that he wants to get back at the league by claiming that it’s rife with corruption (as if that would make him look any better).
W.W.A.S.?
What would Ayesha say?
Out of curiosity, I decided to calculate the probability of a non-rigged series going to 6 or 7 games.
First, suppose the teams are evenly matched and each game has a 50-50 chance of being won by either team. Assuming my reasoning is correct, the probability of the series lasting
4 games is .125
5 games is .250
6 games is .3125
7 games is .3125
Thus, there’s a 62.5% that it will go 6 or 7 games.
Now suppose they’re not evenly matched: Team A’s probability of winning any given game is a, and Team B’s probability of winning is b = 1–a. Now the probability of the series lasting
4 games is a[sup]4[/sup] + b[sup]4[/sup]
5 games is a[sup]4[/sup]b([sub]4[/sub]C[sub]1[/sub]) + b[sup]4[/sup]a([sub]4[/sub]C[sub]1[/sub])
6 games is a[sup]4[/sup]b[sup]2/sup + b[sup]4[/sup]a[sup]2/sup
7 games is a[sup]4[/sup]b[sup]3/sup + b[sup]4[/sup]a[sup]3/sup
If, for example, one team has a 60% chance of winning each game, this gives a 57.6% chance that the series will go to 6 or 7 games.
Note that this model assumes that each game has the same probability and doesn’t take into account hard-to-quantify real-world factors like home field/court advantage, one team playing with greater intensity in a game they “have to win,” etc.
So when did he say this?
People don’t realize how much power a NBA ref has during a game. I seen them do all types of slimy things help another team like
Not calling obvious fouls
Waiting to see if a player makes a shot and if it misses they call foul
And what this does is change the momentum of the game which is why most people believe it’s rigged.