I think you’re vastly wrong on this, and it is an incredibly overused phrase.
The general sentiment isn’t supported by exit polling. The “looks like a guy I could have a beer with” argument seems to mostly be made by liberals who are trying to demonize society for its decision to vote for someone who wasn’t their pet candidate–they infer that, well, the candidate that won dumbed himself down because the dumb people in America didn’t know any better, if they did, they would have voted for the Democrat.
I think there are broadly two kinds of voters:
- Voters who vote based on who they think is the best candidate for themselves
- Voters who vote based on who they think is the best candidate for society.
Voters of the first type tend to be poor/middle class, because only the wealthy or disconnected (like college students, who aren’t wealthy but are mostly insulated from the real world) can usually stomach putting societal interests so high in their decision making.
When it comes to that first type of voters, part of deciding which candidate is the “best for me” is, “how well does this person relate to me?” Sure, to beer-guzzling factory workers from Erie, PA that might equate to “could I have a beer with this guy?” But we’re talking about one facet in the decision making process, even the beer guzzling factory worker is going to be concerned with which candidate is going to help him send his kids to college, retire comfortably, keep his job and et cetera.
Now, sometimes the whole “beer buddy” thing may be a deciding factor but this is usually when “all other things are equal” when you have two candidates that are very similar in fact, or even just perceived as very similar, such a distinction can be key (remember, perception truly is the same as reality in politics–if people believe it, and they vote based on that believe, then perception is just as real as the truth.)
For example in 2000 a great many people I knew didn’t think Bush and Gore were very different. It’s easy to look at how ludicrous that idea is in retrospect but at the time, they were both arguing pretty bland platforms. It was a boring time in politics, until election day and the Florida fiasco.