Yes, obviously there’s larger concerns IRL, but this is Politics & Elections, and I got curious. Even if a certain action is the morally right thing to do, it’s extremely possible to lose voters and office because of it; we see it happen all the time.
So suppose we were looking at Gaza with entirely selfish, personal utilitarian eyes. What would the best route be? IS there one better than another, or is it equally lose/lose?
The best course would be to do nothing. Let the chips fall where they may. That way you can’t be blamed for making the wrong decision, or backing the wrong team. Dither around and talk about peace and understanding, and then just let things happen however they are going to happen. Chances are it won’t lead to a wide conflict, and the US shouldn’t be pulling levers to ensure one side wins and the other side is obliterated.
…that’s what they are doing now. If I were to look at it with entirely selfish, personal utilitarian eyes, I’d be doing exactly what Biden is doing now.
I just think they’ve got the calculus wrong. And I don’t think its a winning strategy.
I suspect you’re screwed either way. You could piss off one side, or piss off the other side, or dither around in the middle and probably piss off everybody.
Unless, of course, you can manage to broker what looks temporarily like a peace, possibly by keeping negotiators from the parties awake for so long that they’ll agree to anything because they’ve quit thinking. In that case, you’re sitting pretty until they get back home and catch up on their sleep. But at the moment, I don’t think it’s possible even to get the negotiators into the same room, let alone to keep them there long enough for sleep deprivation to take over.
Okay, so what is the real calculus and winning strategy? That’s the entire point of the post.
This. Unfortunately, it’s just that simple. It’s a no-win situation. Which is a perfect setup for opponents of an incumbent like Biden, since the incumbent is the one who has to actually make policy, while the opponents can jeer from the sidelines about how much better they’d do if only they were elected. I understand that if only he were elected, Trump would end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours. I suspect the same would apply here. It’s only the poor guy who’s actually in power who has to deal with reality.
To be fair: I think Biden probably is genuinely trying to broker a peace. I just don’t know whether that’s possible.
From a realistic perspective, none, even though we pretend he will get fully support across parties:
If you’re a Dem, stop funding the Israeli military, and then give as much humanitarian aid to the Palestinians as possible.
And then send special advisors to help weed out Hamas.
If you’re a Republican, MORE military aid for Israel and stop all humanitarian aid to Palestine.
And then deport all the Palestinians in the US.
The answer is very different now than if it was closer to the election than a year out.
I don’t think any response is going to flip many votes. If an election was around a corner being supportive of Israel acting against Hamas whatever it takes could negatively impact turnout of Democratic supporting demographics that are hard to get out to vote. But those voters functionally have a short memory. A year out is forever.
OTOH there are centrist groups who have longer memories and are more likely voters. Middle aged and older voters who lean the other way on Israel as a culture war item. Also conservatives who are not big fans of Trump but who could be motivated to vote against a Democratic candidate who seemed to them to be soft on terror.
What a President needs to do right now is have actual foreign policy chops that help keep this from spiraling a regional conflict and that lands with Hamas isolated and this conflict off the proverbial above the folds by closer to the election. Bonus points if it is settled enough in Israel that Bibi is gone and a process of rebuilding Gaza with other leadership on both sides that can engage towards constructive negotiations has begun.
That would of course end up neutral on election results. But every other path loses one way or the other.
I’m actually optimistic that Biden’s team has those chops but it a very dangerous circumstance with no great outcomes probable. Landing on a relatively less bad possible one is the best that can hoped for and being there as the election gets closer the least poor impact on election prospects.
IMHO.
…its a matter of doing what they think is the morally right thing to do. Not because it’s a guaranteed “winning strategy.” Because that doesn’t exist.
It’s just that if you go after the focus-tested strategy, one that is entirely selfish, personal and utilitarian, one that doesn’t align with your moral values, and you still lose, then what even is the point? You’ve sold your soul for nothing.
I don’t know what the winning strategy. I do know what I would and wouldn’t support. And if I lived in America, and if I were eligible to vote, then a few weeks ago I would have happily voted for Biden, even with massive reservations. I couldn’t do that now. Not after he has, in my opinion, abandoned the Palestinian people and left them to die.
If you don’t like the premise of my question, then feel free not to engage.
I’m thinking about what a strategy not abandon the Palestinian people?
Sounds like asking for keep expanding the scale of U.S. intervention in the world, limit the scale of Israeli force while maintaining as much as possible the status before the Hamas attack. It needs the president tear up most of the treaties with Israel, plan a political subversion, transforming Israel, a right wing democratically elected government into a puppet. Meanwhile, send more U.S. soldiers stationed in conflict areas and reduce IDF Conscription, limit Hamas at the same time. It may needs preparing for new treaty with Iran, Russia and Syria.
Any president who trying to gain these goals would have to cutting interest rates, increase domestic taxes, lower tariffs and expand the scale of military conscription (let’s reopen MAVNI, we know American citizens are no longer interested in serving in the military). At least gain enough to money to repair USS Gerald R Ford. We may also need about 300,000 to 800,000 refugee visas for women and children, establish resettlement centers in some place.
Not sure any voters saddled with mortgages, high prices and unemployment will continue to vote for Palestine.
I’ll say what the worst course on Gaza is.
Choose a course based on election politics.
To do that, Biden has to ask his advisors for political advice. And there’s an excellent chance the fact he did that would leak out.
He has political advisors. They give him political advice. I’m not sure what the issue is. If it leaked out his political advisors were doing their job nothing will happen.
“Person up for re-election consults with political advisors re potential political fall out of various actions.”
Boy that would be a shocking headline.
Choosing a course of action exclusively, or even primarily, or even seemingly so, on the basis of that advice doesn’t play well. Not having understood and considered the political implications of various actions though, and being prepared to respond to them? That would be understood by many as too stupid to hold office.
FWIW you and others may strongly disagree with the assessment but I believe that Biden does believe that his actions are the morally right thing to do, and that he would be responding not too dissimilarly if he was in charge of Israel.
This is not the thread to debate the accuracy or inaccuracy of that assessment or my opinion of it but I do believe that Biden honestly holds it, with consideration of regional and global implications as he sees them.
Yes politically being seen to be doing something you see as immoral for political considerations would backfire.
I don’t think that would be popular with most Democrats. I doubt it would even be popular with most progressives.
I agree, Biden seems earnest on Israel, supporting their right to defend themselves while urging restraint and pushing for humanitarian aid. He clearly cares about civilians on both sides of the conflict.
The argument I’ve heard from progressives is: Israel has Universal Health Care and we don’t. Why should we fund their military?