Back to the OP:
As far as what the rioters thought would happen, I imagine that they thought it would go down like an action movie. They would storm the Capitol, capture/kill all of the bad guys, find the evidence that they needed to prove that the Democrats stole the election and are evil blood drinking paedophiles, Stand in solemn watchfulness as the house of Representatives installed the rightful president while Fanfare for the common man played in he background and then as then marched out heroicly to cheers of a grateful public as the police rushed in to arrest the bad guys as the closing credits start to roll.
I agree. The legal argument that Pence had the authority to unilaterally reject electoral votes was really really sketchy.
Pence would’ve lost in the Supreme Court 7-2. Alito would vote to let Pence overthrow the election because he’s a partisan hack, and Thomas would vote with him because sleeping on the couch makes his back hurt*.
I think we have to distinguish between the craven trump supporters and the (largely ignorant) MAGAs.
The former are the majority of republican politicians, the latter represent the broader support.
Craven supporters would have argued thusly: “Democrats always roll over. Look at the supreme court: we broke all the norms, contradicted our supposed principles, and got everything we wanted. Democrats meanwhile got to STFU. We just need to find some evidence of some impropriety somewhere, make a big deal about it, and it will be enough”.
It was just a shame for them that they found fuck all to hang their hat on.
The ignorant MAGAs OTOH, already believed there had been massive voter fraud, because tucker Carlson said so with his serious face.
So they would have had no problem imagining a reality where trump is president and oh BTW we counted again and he won by a landslide.
At least in theory, the military works for the constitution. Thankfully, it has never been tested what would happen if the Commander in Chief gave an unlawful order to ignore the results of a national election. I’m relieved we didn’t have to find out in 2021 and hope we don’t face that in 2024.
I’m now leaning towards the instigators of Jan 6 were hoping that their rabble stayed outside and raised hell with counter-protesters. The thing is, a mob like that wants a target and when Antifa didn’t show up they focused on something else. Mobs aren’t really controllable.
Although I also suspect there was a small sub-set that were planning to enter the Capitol regardless and either take some sort of hostage or conduct some version of citizen’s arrest on legislators unwilling to go along with the coup. Hence the piles of zip-ties some of them were carrying. I also think that gallows, however crude, might have seem some actual use under slightly different circumstances.
Not quite sure what you mean by “take over” but if the US, as you put it, goes down the shitter the first two things that happen is that China moves on Taiwan and Ukraine becomes part of Russia again.
Then there will be a resource-rush on Africa, sort of Colonialism, the Sequel.
I suspect many in the world are allies of the US not because they love America but because they see America as the least bad alternative.
Had those morons actually killed a member of Congress, the result would certainly not be the painstakingly slow investigation occurring now, nor would those morons be getting the sweetheart misdemeanor deals and light fines they’re getting now.
Here’s what would have happened. Disputed ballots are disallowed. Nobody gets a majority. Election thrown into the house where, let me guess, 28 delegations are Republican controlled and chooses Trump. More interesting is the election for VP. It goes to the senate that splits 50-50. Is Pence still the presiding officer? If this takes place before Jan. 20, I guess he still is and casts the deciding vote. If it happens after, there is no presiding officer and I have no idea what happens.
The 117th Congress (convened 03 January 2021) state delegations are 22D, 26R, and 2 ties (PA, GA).
Note that one of the R states is Wyoming, whose delegation consists entirely of Liz Cheney, whose vote for Cheato in this scenario is, shall we say, not guaranteed. This creates a conundrum; the procedure for settling a Presidential election by vote of House delegations requires an absolute majority (i.e. 26, not 25, out of 50).
In a contingent election where there is no electoral college majority, the House elects the President and the Senate elects the Vice President. If both the House and Senate are unable to select a winner, then the sitting Speaker would become President on January 20.
To address this point – the Constitution requires a majority of Senators (i.e. 51) to elect a VP. If it’s 50-50 then there is no majority and nobody’s elected VP.
So assuming Liz Cheney defected, there would be no president-elect and no vice-president-elect either. So come January 20, Trump and Pence are out and the new president would be: Nancy Pelosi, who would then have had to choose a veep. Lot’s of luck getting congress to agree to anyone she chose. I wonder who would have taken over as house speaker. Maybe they would have chosen Biden.