So let’s say that the rioters on 1/6 were successful (however that’s defined).
What might have happened next? Civil war? Lots of lawsuits? Emergency Congressional appointments and a do-over of the vote certification process somewhere else?
Suppose the Trumpers had somehow forced Pelosi, Schumer, Pence, and the whole House + Senate to “certify” Trump as president (that’s the most “successful” outcome I can imagine,) SCOTUS would have probably just ruled it “under duress and therefore invalid.” Then there would be a re-certification - this time without the protesters present - and Biden would have been certified.
I don’t see any definition of “successful” that doesn’t include the military so yes there’d be lots of fighting. If the military was completely behind Trump then the major action would be fairly short but with minor skirmishes for years.
One definition of “successful” would be that they managed to assassinate some or all of their targets. The senators would be replaced according to their respective states’ rules, but not all of them would be replaced by other Democrats, and the representatives wouldn’t be replaced at all until the next election. So control of both houses would flip.
This is the only sort of “success” that was actually possible on that day, and it’s still possible and terrifying.
If militia manage to kill enough Democratic Reps/Senators from states that are currently controlled by Republican Governors/Legislatures (depending on how appointing a replacement works in that state) to flip one of the houses (enough is “1” for the Senate and I 5 or 6 for the House), the only hope for our country is that those states appoint a Democratic replacement. If not, we will have legitimized assassination of legislators as a method of regime change.
I am not optimistic about them doing so in that event.
As per the instructions from POTUS, the only successful outcome was the reinauguration of Trump
So after the insurgents forced the House & Senate to certify the election results as 538-0 for Donald J Tump of the State of Florida to the Presidency that the matter would be referred to SCOTUS, who would then probably determined the action of Congress as being given under duress and invalid that then the insurgents would have stormed the High Court, effectively ending the First Republic of the United States.
I don’t see why SCOTUS would overturn the electoral count, even if it was made under duress. So, if the House and Senate were to affirm Trump as president (say, by throwing out “contested” states), then he would be president for the next four years. I really don’t see SCOTUS overriding the Senate and the House on this.
If they were successful in killing Pence or any Representatives or Senators, then they would be replaced according to the rules of their states, and Trump would appoint someone else as VP if necessary. Whether that would change the majority in either house would depend on who was murdered and who replaced them.
There would be protests, but if they started getting violent, the cops and National Guard would clamp down on them.
Trump would probably appoint some lackey or one of his kids to succeed him if he got too old and that would be that.
This has happened in other countries and it could happen here.
I can’t imagine any scenario where Democrats would accept that without involving the military. The Republicans in charge of replacing the senators (like Kemp) wouldn’t go along with it. They conspirators would have to replace/kill Biden, too, because the DOJ would be all over this. Too many people would lose their shit for this to work.
What could they possibly have achieved that would be called ‘success’? It was doomed to failure from the start.
They couldn’t have destroyed democracy with a few thousand people, but they could have killed a lot of politicians. also they could have killed Supreme Court justices if they decided to while in DC.
successful coups generally require the military or secret police being on board.
in theory if they just assassinate all politicians and judges they don’t like, and assuming the replacements are further right than the ones they killed, they can take soft power doing that.
If Reps and Senators and the VP were killed, the vote would presumably have occurred before they were replaced (just like Georgia was missing a Senator due to the runoff) presided over by the senior member of the majority party as President Pro Tem. Assuming a quorum were present there might be a legal argument that the vote was valid.
Would they have done that? Did the rioters actually have a plan?
I think that’s the start of the Handmaid’s Tale…
The Republican-dominated Supreme Court still curbed the worst excesses, such as refusing to take the Kraken cases (rumored to be a 9-0 decision). They would rather twist things on the sly, such as throwing out voting regulations in the South, etc.
There’s no legal issue here, no issues for the SCOTUS to address – a quorum of senators and representatives overturn enough electoral votes to throw the election to the House, then they decide for Trump.
Hungary, Turkey, and, I guess Russia, have all effectively lost their democracies without any violent uprising, without any army stepping in. The US constitution was written assuming good faith and good intentions on the part of the elected officials. We’ve seen that that’s not good enough.
Smaller examples – repeated violations of the emoluments clause, ignoring congressional subpoenas, ignoring legal demands for tax returns. Stretching “advice and consent” to its limit by not even bringing judicial nominations to a vote, even though they would have passed had they been brought to the floor.
You put enough of your own judges in the right positions, you have enough Senators or Representatives who put their own career or their own party before the country, and that’s all it takes. There’s no higher power here that will step in to make sure our democracy withstands an onslaught.
There was no plan. There never was a plan. The only thing they wanted to do was performance patriotism. They wanted to show the world that they’re capable of doing what their idol wants and needs. What did he want beyond intimidation? Nothing, of course. Don’t you remember the way he stalked Ms. Clinton on stage during their debate? He just wanted to intimidate her, and not actually do anything beyond that. If she had turned around and clocked him, yelling, “Back off! Your behavior is too creepy!”, he would’ve been flustered and had no comeback. There’s no coherence, no plan, no thinking ahead.
These idiotic traitors proved they can intimidate en masse, but they also proved they have no other plan than just intimidation.
Of course our democracy will survive this. That’s because we, as a society, and by means of our long-establishefd democratic institutions, are holding the traitors accountable for their treason. That is something that is not happening in places such as Russia.
Sorry for the double post. 138 Representatives and 8 Senators voted to sustain the objections to the electoral votes after the insurrectionists forced them to leave the chamber. If you don’t think the Republican party would have handed Trump the election if they had the power, you’re really kidding yourself.
Are you serious or am I being whooshed here?
I can’t imagine anyone accepting the validity of an electoral vote count if it was made by members of Congress who were being held hostage.
And if it was accepted as a valid legal action, think of the precedent. Do we want Trump and Pence to resign? We just take their families hostage. No need to pack the Supreme Court; we can just tell the Justices we don’t like to resign at gunpoint.
OK, then have them hold off the vote until the murdered Senators and Reps are replaced with the right people. The question in this thread is “what would have happened after 1/6 had the riot been successful”, and I’m answering that hypothetical.
Some of the rioters wanted to kill Pence, Pelosi, and others. That is known. Someone brought molotov cocktails and pipe bombs. So, kill enough members of both Houses to prevent the certification of the electoral votes. Maybe kill off enough Democratic Representatives so the Republicans have the majority. Trump says he’s still president, the Senate and the House go along with it, and SCOTUS says, “this is between those branches.”
A large majority of Republican reps went tried to overturn the election, “the most secure election ever” according to multiple other Republicans, after their lives were endangered by Trump supporters.
There is no bottom.
But that had nothing to do with the riot. Those Republicans were claiming the Electoral Count Act gave them the authority to throw out votes they didn’t like and replace them with a set of votes they preferred. They’re wrong but they were at least pretending they were acting within the law. The rioters, on the other hand, were claiming that bringing guns into the Capitol gave them the authority to throw out votes they didn’t like and replace them with a set of votes they preferred. They apparently figured you could overturn an election the same way you could rob a convenience store.
There are limits to how much you can accomplish by pointing guns at people. You can walk into a bank and steal the money in the tellers’ drawers by pointing guns at people. But you can’t walk into a bank and get a mortgage by pointing guns at people. Sure, the people you’re pointing guns at might agree to whatever terms you’re asking for. But nobody is going to say the agreement was valid and hold them to it after you walk out.
The rioters might have succeeded if their goal was to burn down the Capitol or kill some members of Congress. But they had zero chance of success if their goal was to get Trump elected to a second term.
I can’t say anything about Hungary and Russia is a special case but in Turkey the army had to put down an attempted coup to replace Erdoğan. He (Erdoğan) was supported by most of the army.