What does 67% recidivism for murder mean? Does it argue for death penalty?

An argument in favor of the death penalty is that murderers may kill again if they remain alive.

Most almanacs and other references I check say the recidivism rate for murder is around 65 or 70 percent. I am not sure exactly how this is defined. For example, it could mean that among people who have already been convicted of one or more murders, 67% of them will later commit and be convicted of at least one more murder.

Speaking more generally, though, it seems to mean that somebody who is now a murderer will probably kill again. Though, obviously, he won’t once he’s dead.

So, doesn’t this mean that letting a murderer live creates better than even odds that some other as of yet unknown victim will die? In other words, however many murderers we don’t kill, we effectively sentence at least a very roughly similar number of other people to death?

I think you’re using the wrong definition of recidivism- I bet you’d find that it’s the chance that they’ll be incarcerated again for some crime, not necessarily murder.

That sounds likely to me; I’ve always heard that murderers usually don’t kill again, outside of special cases like serial killers and hit men.

Regardless, most of the arguments I’ve heard against the death penalty have nothing to do with the recidivism rate, so it doesn’t matter much for this arguement IMHO.

:confused:
Is that a woosh? Seriously? That’s one of primary arguments

[

](http://web.amnesty.org/pages/deathpenalty-index-eng)[

](http://www.nyadp.org/main/faq#5)[

](http://www.religioustolerance.org/executb.htm)[

](http://www.msu.edu/~millettf/DeathPenalty/practical.html)…and pretty much the front page of any single anti-death penalty site you look up. Now, I don’t know about what the OP brought up, since the reality might be the exact opposite, but hand-waving away an absolute cornerstone of the anti-death penalty movement when the slightest hint of a crack appears is stunning to me.

Your quotes were talking about the (lack of) deterrent value (that is, people being deterred from ever commiting a crime because of fear of the penalty); the OP is talking about repeat offenders - it’s not the same thing.

It’s hardly a cornerstone; it’s a counterargument to the insistence of the pro-death penalty people that executions are some sort of deterrent. It’s especially not a cornerstone since in my experience, most of the pro-death penalty crowd really don’t seem to care if it’s a deterrent or not, or even makes things worse, or if we are killing innocent people.

And I said “most” arguments. That’s only one argument, no matter how often it’s repeated.

Apparently the “fact” that the death penalty has no effect on deterrence has come into question with new research.

From the article:

“According to roughly a dozen recent studies, executions save lives. For each inmate put to death, the studies say, 3 to 18 murders are prevented.”

It has made me rethink my anti-death penalty stance a bit. I’m not quite ready to be pro, but it has definitely made me rethink it.

I’m not going to argue that, I just wanted to point out that the ArizonaTeach is comparing apples and oranges.

Killing someone is a very effective deterrent against them being tempted to commit another crime in the future, therefore the arguments about recidivism and deterrence can’t be one and the same.

The new research was just something I wanted to bring up because it has potentially changed my mind, and I was wondering if I was alone in that. Maybe I should start my own thread instead of hijacking this one…

:smack:
Yes, of course, you’re right. I don’t know how I misread the first post so badly, but I did.

Easily done - it took me a while to twig to it.

Well. Yes, I am interested in how often convicted murders who have served some sentence and returned to society then kill again.

I’m surprised that, by recidivism amongst murderers, references mean crimes of any sort being convicted by them. But I wasn’t sure what it did mean, so maybe this is true. I will try looking around some more. Anybody who knows more specifically, please chime in!

I’m most interested in this point of fact, about what exactly such a statistic is saying. That’s why I posted this in General Questions.

Since we are debating, I’ll stipulate that I used to be in favor of the death penalty but have moderated. Mostly, I wish the US were more in step with the rest of the civilized world, but I am also somewhat worried when I read about incorrect convictions and the Innocence Project and the like.

I suspect the biggest driving force behind the death penalty is evangelical Christian leanings. I think we intend to cleanse the soul of a killer, as a service to them and/or to god.

Imagine Schroedinger’s experiment with the cat in the box. You go on and on not knowing if the cat is dead. Eventually you open the box and find out, and then we consider what the state of truth was before you found out.

Now imagine a closed off cell with a prisoner in it, a convicted murderer. He stays in the cell, so none of us will ever contact him or interact with him, and he won’t kill again. That closed off cell is an isolated universe from our own. We obviously can’t have any interest in whether the prisoner is alive or dead in there. Yet, we seem to think we do.

I think the only thing that transcends the closed off cell is religion, if you believe some all-powerful god knows what’s happening inside the cell and cares about it and will somehow reward you if the right thing happens in there, even if it can’t effect you directly.

It seems to me that if you are in favour of capital punishment you have to be willing to kill the odd innocent person, which is why I don’t approve of it.
A life taken can’t be restored. Human courts are not perfect.
Capital punishment is either about being pragmatic and saving money and bother or it’s about vengence.

I have a lot of complex feelings on the death penalty. Firstly, I think the death penalty is immoral and wrong. Quite frankly this is an extension of my religious convictions, I’m Catholic and it is well known that the modern day Church rejects the death penalty. I agree completely with the Church’s stance on this matter.

Even the most heinous criminal gets a second chance before god (or a third chance, or a fifth et cetera) so I feel they should get the chance to reform themselves in our society as well. While I believe certain criminals should be imprisoned and never released, I do believe they should be allowed to live out their lives while incarcerated. They should be given some means to meaningfully educate themselves and find value in their lives.

I think almost all persons convicted of premeditated murder should spend the rest of their natural lives in prison. This is not a view born out of vindictiveness but simply one that I view as practical. My feeling is, prison should exist for one reason and one reason only, to separate those who are too dangerous to be in society from the rest of us. Prison should be seen as a necessary evil–and just because we don’t want those who are locked up out on our streets does not mean we should deny them their basic humanity.

I also think that the vast majority of offenders in this country do not belong in prison. They belong in treatment facilities (for persons who are sent up on substance-abuse related crimes) or they should be required to pay hefty fines and perform lengthy community service. For example I have a cousin who has spent years in prison because he frequently fudges checks (not dissimilar from the villain in this thread.) My cousin is a menace, and he does cause others harm by stealing their money. I agree that he is a criminal and I agree he needs to be punished for his actions.

However, I think most people who commit such crimes would be better off toiling away at community service and paying fines to the government versus being made effective wards of the state in our prison system. Simply put, non-violent offenders should only be put into segregation from society in extreme circumstances (such as a habitual check forger who shows no ability or desire to reform himself and thus is a constant nuisance upon society.)

This raises into question the idea of equity. One reason the death penalty has long been popular is because it isn’t entirely illogical to view the only appropriate punishment for taking a life to be the taking of the offender’s life. This view would make a lot of sense to me if I were an atheist. For example the Church of Satan (despite its name) is a group of atheists whose leadership has gone on national TV and said, “If you take someone else’s life, your life should be taken.” They feel this way because they believe this mortal existence is all there is, and if you steal someone’s time away from them the only just punishment is for the same to be done unto you. If we lived in our simple lives, died, and passed into oblivion, I would find no compelling argument for any punishment for death other than death itself. If there is nothing other than our existence here on earth, then stealing ANY of that time away is the greatest wrong imaginable and can only be punished in like manner. No amount of time spent even in the worst prison will provide anything approaching equity.

However, the flip side of that is, since we must view the loss of life as the greatest tragedy possible (if we’re working from the atheist world view) we can only take life as punishment when we are absolutely certain the person is guilty. I am not familiar with any case in which we can be absolutely certain the accused is guilty, so even under this world view I do not think I could support the death penalty without absolute certainty of guilt.

I think the matter of deterrence is overrated by both sides. I do not think one should support or oppose executions based on whether it is or is not a deterrent. I think punishments should be decided based on what is just punishment for the crime, and if that doesn’t deter future crimes, that is unfortunate but we should not apply an unjust punishment simply because it may serve as a good deterrent. We also should not fear applying a just punishment just because it may not work as a deterrent, either.

So while I accept that certain arguments for the death penalty are compelling, I think that morality and the simple fact that we cannot attain absolute certainty of guilt are the two biggest things that should lead people to not support the death penalty.

The last argument I’ve heard is that sometimes violent offenders, even when incarcerated permanently, are such a threat that they put the very lives of correctional workers at constant peril. Furthermore, there is the argument that persons serving a life sentence in a jurisdiction without the death penalty will have no reason not to kill others in prison. For this reason it is not uncommon in the United States that the killing of another inmate in prison by a person serving a life sentence constitutes a capital offense. It is often the case that killing a correctional officer will also constitute a capital offense in jurisdictions where “simple” acts of murder aren’t enough to warrant the death penalty.

I view these as valid concerns, however I feel that those persons who are so dangerous that they cannot even be trusted within the confines of prison can be dealt with without killing them. They can be put into a type of pervasive confinement like you find at Federal “Supermax” prisons. Kept in the same room 23 out of 24 hours They can be kept totally segregated from all other inmates, they can be kept under constant surveillance, they can be brought out of their cell by correctional officers only when heavily restrained and with multiple guards present. An expensive solution, but one that would probably only be necessary for a very small number of people (I feel a lot of the people who are serving time in “Supermax” facilities probably shouldn’t be. Ted Kacyznski for example doesn’t strike me as dangerous unless you let him have bomb-making materials.)

>It seems to me that if you are in favour of capital punishment you have to be willing to kill the odd innocent person, which is why I don’t approve of it.

But you can’t avoid that either way. If by releasing murderers, some of whom will repeat their crime, you allow some statistically reliable number of additional murders, then by the same reasoning to disapprove of capital punishment you also have to be willing to kill the odd innocent person. You are faced with a social reality for which none of the known choices prevent all innocent deaths.

>Capital punishment is either about being pragmatic and saving money and bother or it’s about vengence.

I proposed that capital punishment might be about preventing further killings by those executed. Why couldn’t it be?
Also, don’t the further legal proceedings that go along with executions cost more than even lifelong maintenance of a prisoner? I read somewhere that it costs the system several million dollars on average to execute somebody, mostly in the costs of lawyer and court fees.

So you propose what exactly? Lessen the number of checks and balances on death penalty procedures so that more innocent people have a chance of ebing executed?

More importantly why do I always see this debate being framed as: death penalty or freedom?

Let the judges and jury decide when life WITHOUT the possibility of parole should apply and when more liniency should be granted. No one is saying that we should let murders go free, just that we shouldn’t kill because in doing so we can and probably will kill innocent people.

Napier and Kinthalis, I’d be much stricter about releasing murderers, possibly to the extent of eliminating parole. If they re-commit that’s their crime.

Executing an innocent would be the legal system’s crime. That’s the thing that bothers me.

I realize, of course, that governments kill people. To that you could argue, or goverments could make it look like, the opposition is made up of bad guys. There are rules of engagement and procedures and so on.

If you kill an innocent there is no legal excuse I can think of.

Research by economists? The same branch of “science” that is supposed to be able to tell us what our money will do and can’t do that?

Part of the reason for that framing is because a number of people can point to some horrifying cases where persons were sentences to death, or life in prison, and then were released, anyways, and killed again.

Arthur Shawcross: released early, against reccomendations of prison officials. Secretely relocated to Rochester, NY. Killed another 11 women before being caught and convicted again.

Kenneth McDuff: Actually convicted of capital murder. The death penalty in the US was overturned, so his sentence was commuted to life. And then he was released by a judge, against the reccomendations of the prison officials.

I do not pretend that these cases are indicative of general failures of the penal system. I do think that they, and other cases with similarities, are part of why some people choose to frame the debate on the death penalty in terms of death or some possibility of release. That any killer has been released early from his sentence, and then went on to kill again, is for some people a reason to advocate for the death penalty.

>So you propose what exactly?

The way things are now doesn’t seem quite right, but I don’t know.

If “67% recidivism for murder” means that for every 3 murderers you don’t execute, 2 more victims will die, then I’d propose executing them all. And, we should have some reasonably balanced effort to minimize the incorrect convictions, like we try to minimize deaths by war and disease and accident.

If “%67 etc etc” means something very different, then I’d want to know what researchers say about how many lives are lost using each of the options, and let that guide me.

So the first thing I’d do is try to straighten out what “67% recidivism for murder” actually means. The real problem is needing more information to make a good choice.

Maybe I should post a question online…