As DNC chairman, he obviously wants to avoid a brokered convention. He also needs to deal with the situations in Florida and Michigan; a situation that becomes more urgent as Hillary views those delegates as a necessity to win the nomination. The issue becomes how the DNC can avoid a bloody, protracted battle for the nomination, and avoid alienating the voters in Florida and Michigan. Let’s look at the options:
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Ask Obama to bow out/ accept another (cabinet) position: Unlikely to work (at this point), and would almost certainly piss off too many people. I doubt Obama will run for president again unless he had his family’s support, and I do not think he’d have that moving forward. Thus even if he were offered the VP spot, he would essentially prevent the dems having an heir to the throne (assuming she wins twice). Furthermore, he is in the lead, and by all accounts, should win based on the delegate math, barring some unforeseen circumstances. Few people want to quit while they are ahead.
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Ask Hillary to bow out / accept another (cabinet) position: Politically speaking, this is the easiest way to go about it. Although I doubt she would do it, it would make life for the party easier for a number of reasons. First, she could be Senate majority leader or Secretary of State, whereas Obama would be a harder sell for those types of positions seeing as he is a first-time senator. Since she will probably have fewer pledged delegates, asking her would seem less unfair. It would be in keeping with the will of the voters.
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Letting it play itself out: The worst course of action IMO. First, it’s untenable position seeing as neither candidates will have the delegates to officially seal up the nomination without superdelegates and deal making. It will force his hand wrt the challenged contests, and exacerbate the growing rift between the Clinton and Obama camps. While it avoids the problem of having to involve himself in what is seen as a public process, it does not actually bring us closer to a positive outcome. Second, both candidates will waste tens of millions of dollars beating the hell out of one another, providing ammunition for the GOP, and alienating independents. If Clinton comes out in the end, it will probably be due to the negative attacks on Obama, which will alienate his supporters, thus eroding her support in the general election. If Obama wins, it will be in spite of her attacks which paint him in a negative light. Basically, the party is damned either way.
In Dean’s mind, evaluating this option must come down to whether he values the presidency or the party as a whole. The love-hate relationship we have with the Clintons has created a situation where they are often successful at the expense of the party. While the Clinton presidency was successful by most measures, it was an unmitigated failure for the party . Both Clintons have been able to win in difficult circumstances. If Dean believes this election is going to be a nail biter no matter who is nominated, Hillary probably has a better chance to eek out a victory than Obama does. Obama is not gonna take out McCain’s knees in the ways Clinton would. It may not come down to that, but my money is on her in a dirty knife fight type of battle with McCain. She will go for the jugular without hesitation or remorse. However, in doing so, she will probably ensure a Republican congress in the near future because the same character traits that make her useful in a dirty fight make her easy to hate. Even her efforts to get Florida and Michigan counted are an indication she will whatever she can to win, everyone else be damned. Dean should be worried for the party if she wins.
A Obama nomination will make it easier for the Dems to keep congress in 2008, and moving forward (assuming he doesn’t fuck up too badly). His broad appeal brings new voters into the fold, and allows those in Congress to steal independent votes from their local opponents. He has proven to be a better fund raiser, and has towed the party line, while not inspiring the ire of his opponents. However, in a close race he will have a harder time winning. Negative campaigning undermines his message, and it’s been harder for him to combat the smear campaigns that have been launched against him.
This is basically is like Monopoly. Howard Dean needs to convince Hillary to sell her Park Place to Obama so he can build some hotels in order to beat the guy slowly bleeding everyone dry and taking their pass-go money with the light blue Monopoly hotel setup. Or if you prefer Risk; he needs to convince her to stop holing herself up in Australia, collecting armies, prolonging the game until everyone dies of boredom. At a certain point, it becomes clear that it is more important that the other guy (McCain) lose, than Hillary win. That why, if I were Dean, I publicly quash all this MI/FL delegate nonsense, and quietly back Obama. I start putting pressure on the super delegates to come together and back him. I ask her to drop out, and accept another position under the threat of being disavowed from the party. I have the DNC donate some money to the Clinton library and President Clinton’s philanthropic efforts. I would also offer her final approval on any healthcare initiatives brought forth during Obama’s term. I ask that she gracefully bow out after her next loss, throw her support to Obama, and turn up the heat on McCain as an Obama surrogate. I’d ask Obama to accept these conditions, and to donate money to the DNC to ensure the dems in vulnerable districts are re-elected.
You’re Howard Dean, what would you do?