What does Paul manafort get out of cooperating with mueller

It sounds like he will probably die in prison anyway. He is 69, any sentence longer than 10 years is a death sentence. Even a ten year sentence could be.

But he agrees to give the government something like 46 million in assets, to cooperate in all investigations and I believe to not accept a pardon.

What does he gain? It sounds like no matter what, he is looking at dying of old age in prison whether he cooperates or not.

Did Mueller offer to protect his family from Russian assassins?

Did Mueller threaten to investigate his wife for crimes?

Does he avoid the death penalty (with appeals, he would die of old age before his sentence was carried out anyway).

Dis Mueller agree to let him keep some assets for his family (had he not cooperated would Mueller have taken everything and left his family penniless, at least this way they still have something)?

Was Mueller discussing extradition to the Ukraine?

I’m wondering if a Ukrainian extradition was the leverage Mueller used. Ukrainian prisons are harsher than American ones and manafort would have been a target for violence in the Ukraine.

Not dying penniless in prison and his family destitute. And if he does get out, maybe even witness protection.

according to this site, the Ukraine and US do not have an extradition treaty in place.

He gave up 46 million, how much money does his family keep?

And he sounds like he will die in prison whether he cooperates or not.

He also doesn’t strike me as much of a family oriented person, so I’m not sure how important his family’s well being was to his decision.

Hell, I think his daughter petitioned to ditch the name “Manafort.”

My understanding is that he is close to his immediate family, and that their welfare was a consideration. His wife was apparently looking at charges herself, and this deal keeps her out of it.
Additionally, by avoiding the second trial and cooperating, he spends some time in jail and may get out before he dies. It’ll probably be the Club Fed jail. If he had gone to the second trial, he wasn’t coming out of jail alive. This keeps his family out and gives him a chance at freedom, eventually.

The life expectancy of a 69 year old man is about another 16 years FWIW (Cite). Manafort looks reasonably healthy for a man of his age. He’s probably not expecting to die in jail.

Someone better-versed can correct me, but I don’t think the DP was ever a possibility, was it? Conspiracy to Defraud the US and Failure To Declare Agency are not the same as treason, are they?

I must admit, though, the possibility of death penalties for large-scale fraud are the closest I’ll ever come to actually rethinking the DP thing. :slight_smile:

Perhaps, like Cohen, he finally had the realization of how dangerous his old boss it and wants to see him removed from office for the good of the nation. Perhaps his motivation was purely patriotic.

I don’t believe for a second you typed that with a straight face.

As straight a face as one can have while biting one’s lip.

The dry wit! The satire! It is truly alkaline.

Manafort is looking for protection for his family and a lighter sentence in a relatively comfortable prison, perhaps protection against assassination attempts by Russian-affiliated organized crime. That’s all he’s going to get. Frankly, I’m not sure Mueller even needs to flip Manafort at this point to build a case for collusion by the Trump campaign, and unless Pauly has something specific on Donald or his sons he probably doesn’t have all that much to negotiate with. This is more of a shot fired across the bow than a death blow, but it demonstrates that the Mueller team is being methodical, which should really frighten Trump because he and his cohorts have been anything but careful about cleaning their dirty laundry and covering their tracks. And of course, that’s if they can keep Eric from blurting out the truth.

Stranger

Unless convicted of treason or murder, no DP.

No death penalty, no Russian assassins, no exile.

The only real question is the opposite one. Why would he keep litigating at this point? He’s already been convicted and will certainly be going to prison. He’s likely got money enough to be comfortable for the rest of his life, even after the disgorgement to Mueller. What does he have to gain from dragging out the second case?

@ Mods - Please move this thread to the Pit and change the title to
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A second scoop of ice cream.

What does Manafort get? Mueller’s Boot shoved slightly less far up his… case?

Probably the difference between being detained in gitmo-like conditions and luxury hotel style prisons. For an old man used to his creature comforts, the idea of real prison time versus posh, 5-star prison accommodations complete with Internet and gourmet food, is probably very appealing.

It’s easy to forget how a tiny portion of the population gets treated while in “prison,” and Oh How he Wants To Be In That Number, Oh When The feds Come Marching In.

How does agreeing not to accept a pardon work? What if he accepts one anyways?

I don’t have a cite, but pretty sure they keep one residence, and some money in the bank. $46M isn’t nearly all that he has siphoned off. Christ, he financed his daughters vanity film project with millions. I’m guessing part of the deal is he keeps enough to live an upper middle class lifestyle.

Then state charges kick in. Plus he may be charged federally after Trump is out of Office.

He’s basically boned, so really just about anything is better than what he’s looking at.

I presume that the proffer includes some form of negotiation, where he says, “Here’s what I have.” And they tell him what they think they can give him for that.

Presumably, it was enough.