What effect will Saddam's capture have on the insurgents?

Will it break the back of this group? Will it mean that there will be some kind of resolution and moving forward so our troops can come home?

Your question presumes that the insurgents are a group. That’s open to debate.

This is what the commader of US forces in Iraq has to say on the subject.


Hard to figure. We will know in a month or so.

With the cult figure out of circulation, at the very least we can expect the opposition to fragment into well, fragments each led by a different boss.

Further, I would expect a number of paymasters to pocket Saddam’s money and buy Toyota dealerships.

There are plenty of hotheaded young men out there, but with less money and leadership they will (we can only hope) become less combat effective.

And the attacks should be more random:rolleyes:

And conversely, the scenario to be feared is that once the “don’t be a threat to the SH himself” element is removed, some new faces with a good tactical mind may rise. The lack of resources will be an important weakening effect if the access to external sources of cash/weapons is controlled, but until they exhaust their stockpiles they are still a threat. Possibly the power vacuum could mean an internal struggle takes the heat off – but may just as well provoke each faction to try to “prove itself” the toughest. In any case count on the former Ba’ath to be planning for a reemergence through political machination AFTER self-government is reestablished.

FWIW, there was just a large explosion in Baghdad near the Palestine hotel. It looks to have been a car bomb. :frowning:

I hope this goes over to GD because that forum needs a serious debate rather than a Bush bashing thread.

I think there will be a quick rise in guerilla action from those who want to prove that SH’s capture will not effect the cause.

Those Iraqi’s who were holding back cooperation because of fear of reprisal will join the coalition cause.

A quarter of those insurgents who would have continued the fight will probably quit when they see the pathetic way in which their leader surrendered.

SH will give up a lot of information regarding the Baathist insurgency.
Al-Qaeda will step up involvement.

I expect that they’ll be a drop in atacks, but they won’t go away entirely. There are probably plenty of Iraqis who don’t care much for Saddam, but just want the foreign invaders to go home.

Nevermind. The report now is that a truck carrying barrels of fuel was hit by a falling bullet from celebratory gunfire. No injuries.

Read an interesting interview with an “insurgent”. Basically, they don’t care one bit about Saddam. He’s out of the way: great news to them.

There are several groups jockeying for position in the “post-war” Iraq. Many are lead my ex-Saddam generals and such. Whichever group kicks the most US and pro-US butt wins.

IMHO, some of the upper guys, no longer afraid of Saddam coming back, will get bolder. They might even start going after the other groups.

Expect a long bloody mess. It’s a war. Nothing ever turns out the way you plan it in a war.

Stupidest thing heard on CNN today: Maybe Saddam will tell us where the WMDs are.