If we elect a gay president. That’ll get things off to a start.
I would say that one of the events would have to be a significant loss in the power of our military. Otherwise a revolution wouldn’t have much effect, IMHO.
Right now, the govt. is doing plenty of things that inspire individuals to resist, but these things have so far only directly affected a small fraction of the population. These people would fight, except that we don’t have the strangth on numbers - no one wants to be the first to try it.
As things keep getting worse, to the point where almost everyone has a friend, relative, neighbor or coworker who has been busted , raided, had children or property confiscated, searched, audited, interned, etc., people will get over the “this is America, that can’t happen here” mentality. Once that “mental block” has diminished, there might not even have to be any specific trigger.
The most obvious trigger is large scale confiscation of firearms. (The feds are probably smart rnough not to try this, but you never know). That’s one thing many of us will resist regardless of the odds, because its not a question of deciding to go out and do something - they would be bringing the fight to us in our very homes. And once you’ve killed one cop, you might as well fight, since you’ll be running for your life anyway. As the saying goes, “After the first one, the rest are free”. 
I don’t think this is true. It might upset the religious right, but I don’t think it would upset them so much that they would start a revolution.
I don’t think the majority of American’s would be moved to a revolution over the President’s sexuality…At least I hope it wouldn’t be that ignorant.
I think you’ve fundamentally misinterpretted me.
I’m not talking about some demagogue seizing power. In my scenario, the existing government takes some tyrannical action (think: the Democratic National Convention in 1967, times ten), which causes a revolutionary seed to be planted insofar as some extreme radicals actually pronounce that they are revolting (think: the Symbionese Liberation Army, times ten), and start carrying out guerilla warfare (bombing power plants, etc.). With increasing civil unrest, the government becomes more oppressive (think: the Patriot Act, times ten), until further events (firing into a peaceful protest, and such) build sympathy for the radical revolutionaries, and cause a drift towards them. The drift starts with less radical people indirectly supporting them (independent newspapers) or directly supporting them (donating money, food, guns). A couple more tyrannical events, and the drift becomes a tide that strengthens the revolutionaries, with strong public support (covert or otherwise) and moderates starting to join the revolution, until they’re a serious threat to the existing power.
Note all the "times ten"s that I put in there. I think the scale of the events that would have to happen is extremely implausible, if only because the power brokers in this country are smart enough to avoid that.
I don’t, however, think that the current military is an impediment to that scenario. There may have to be some bloodless purges of the leadership, but fundamentally, the military is enforcing law and order; at the point it breaks out into open revolution, the military is defending the legitimately elected government. Society would be polarized into pro-government and revolutionary factions, and the military would overwhelming side with the government, if only out of support for the establishment. There would be defections, but only after a real revolution is started.
At least some military and police would side with the militia.
While there are plenty of feds and cops who wouldn’t mind shooting down their countrymen, the military are less likely to do so. Heck, I know people who’ve joined the national guard specificly to learn skills and make connections and gain access to material for resistance.
thanks for all your post - tcd
My high school history professor had a saying: “All the Russian people want is their vodka, and they’ll be happy.” They start running out of vodka, you better look out.
Right now most people are pacified, and have allowed our personal and economic liberties to be slowly whittled away through incremental measures. A populist revolt is probably not coming until large portions of the people are starving on the street…of course, a populist revolt would just install a harsher government, probably, so I’m thankful it isn’t coming.
An intellectual revolt like we had to found this country…I don’t think it’s possible now. There are just too many of the smart people in positions of power who are solely concerned with consolidating their own power in the present hierarchy. They don’t seem to want a new one, the present one is feeding their monkeys to their satisfaction.
Yeah, but they’ll be the first against the wall when it comes, and the monkeys’ll be next…
http://www.dubyadubyadubya.com/
there are underground revolutionary groups. the problem is that most people who would join dont know about them
I agree with the economic angle. That is the main thing. As long as we all have enough dough, we’ll be fine. Take that away, and we’ll wind up just like the more topsy-turvy third world nations.
And I think you really WOULD have to bring us to third-world levels–just a Great Depression isn’t going to do it. You know how 5% of people have 95% of the money, and vice versa? Well, the poor 95% are going to have to be starving, while the wealthy 5% are yukking it up in their penthouses and mansions. That’s the start of revolution.
I agree with MrTuffPaws. Just about the only thing that would make a largely well off, comfortable, extremely well fed populace, with a semblance of freedom revolt would be if some dastardly gang hid everybody’s TV Remote Controller one night, or some other equally personal evil deed.
In other words it’s unlikely to happen.
Also, for a revolution to take hold there has to be a growing sentiment toward an alternative. right now there are no real major alternatives that enough people agree upon to change things. Right now you have pretty much the largest opposition groups in the form of libertarians and socialists, and they are not going to agree anytime soon.
Erek
The cost of breaking over 200 years of more or less peaceful transfer of power has to be less than the cost of preserving the status quo.
toadspittle’s point is excellent. A depression is not enough.
Yeah! Lousy so-and-so British oppressors. Now we have taxation with representation, so there!
I am not an American, so I’m not sure what events could conceivably spark off a revolution in the USA.
Here in NZ the closest thing we’ve had since WWII to a revolution was the 1981 Springbok tour.
Here’s a site recounting the escalation involved:
For some retrospective try this from a NZ regional newspaper:
Wairarapa Times-Age Article
Basically in 56 days the anti-tour protests went from un-protected peaceful marches, to something akin to gun-less urban warfare.
Then the Springboks went to the USA; and here’s what happened when they got there:
Heres how to form the crucible for a modern American revolution.
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Articles of the US constitution must suspended indefinitely.
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Individual rights of a great majority of Americans must be infringed.
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The state of living conditions of a majority of Americans must be degraded with no relief in the near future.
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Law and order must be degraded to the point where anarchy is undeniable. Justice must be percieved to be out of the hands of the proper authorities.
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Goverment must be percieved to be in power without the democratic consensus of the people.
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The remedy for the above conditions must be unanimous among the leaders of the revolution.
Another excellent point. The most likely scenario I see would be the social situation degrading to such a point that crime is rampant, and vigilante gangs form to keep the peace … and, eventually, develop enough power and influence that they would appear to be the better alternative (and have a chance of beating the loyal govt. forces).
Probably need a whole lot of H-bombs dropped on us before the social situation would get that bad, though.