Assuming that the U.S. avoids becoming an authoritarian dictatorship, what happens when Liberals regain power? ISTM that the current regime has stretched their agenda to the breaking point. When the giant rubber band snaps, there will be backlash. Will the backlash be so great as to undo decades of Republican gains? Will it be great enough to dismantle the oligarchy? To make the rich pay their fair share? What if it does? Would that alienate ‘Red states’ to the point of rebellion? Or will Democrats try so hard to ‘be fair’ that the Republicans lose very little? It seems to me that Democrats spend most of their time cleaning up Republican messes, and their seeming lack of accomplishing their own agendas pushes voters into voting Republican again.
Yes, unfortunately, this seems to be the cycle. Voters have extremely short memories. I remember the state of the economy, and the country as a whole, at the end of the ‘W’ admin as being similar to a vehicle in a comedy caper that’s been in so many accidents that it’s reduced to a beat-up chassis and engine on flat tires barely putting along with smoke belching out the back. Then the Obama admin was voted in, managed to turn things around and get the economy and the nation back on track. You’d think that would turn voters off of the Republican party for a generation or more, at least.
Yet, a mere 8 years later, not only is the Repub admin voted back into office, but headed by someone who made W look like a thoughtful Rhodes scholar.
Either the Democrats make some very large and important structural changes – at a minimum, expanding SCOTUS (or otherwise overcoming the corruption of the existing SCOTUS), adding at least two states (presumably DC and PR), eliminating gerrymandering, decimating the overwhelming political power of billionaires – and prosecute Trump and other lawbreakers from this administration to the fullest extent of the law… or the slide deeper into fascism will resume the next time a Republican is elected. IMO.
The best historical example might just be George W Bush followed by Obama. In 2008, people were saying the Republicans were cooked for a long time to come. Instead, they won a landslide in the 2010 midterms (although it’s true they wouldn’t get the presidency for a while longer.) I think the Democratic honeymoon period will last only a short time from 2028-2030 and then the Republicans will rebound faster than expected.
My prediction is: nothing much. A Democratic administration with both houses also Democratic will spend its time trying to undo as much as possible of the damage Trumpism has done, which will take the first two years, then the House will switch back to R and everything will slow to a crawl. Structural changes to protect democracy will not happen. The balance will move slightly back towards center for a while, but on balance, post-Trump will continue more MAGA than pre-Trump.
One huge problem about all this is that making large changes requires a charismatic and effective leader to excite enthusiasm from the public, and turn that enthusiasm into practical change. Unfortunately, charismatic leaders are seldom both liberal and effective. We had Obama, who was charismatic and liberal, but not effective in making change happen. Then we had Trump, charismatic and effective, but anti-liberal.
There may be hope, Obama sprang essentially from nowhere, I suppose it could happen again. But a new Obama would have to be better than the old one, and actually push and take chances and face criticism.
IMHO, the only one to fit the mold of the next Obama would Ocasio-Cortez. But she is having a harder time winning over moderates/centrists/light-red Rs than Obama did.
As has been mentioned, even in case of a solid all-around D victory in 28, you can never be sure of the midterm especially with the media bubbles and an electorate who wants immediate gratification. One big thing to bear in mind is that a lot of the political-capital-intensive “save democracy for the future” ideas being presented as necessary priorities are going to have to compete for the same finite political capital and 60 Senate votes in only 2 years, as the “urgently fix immediate damages at home and abroad” measures, and never mind the “things WE really wanted as Dems” ones. You just KNOW that any R votes needed to add up to 60 will not be there for anything that goes beyond “restore 2024 normality” in the best of cases.
The above comments seem like likely scenarios, considering historical events. Perhaps one thing may finally hit home: you cannot assume that an opponent is such a flaming incompetent a-hole that he couldn’t possibly be elected, and stay home on election day.
One of the reasons why Democrats are having such a hard time fighting back against Republicans is that we still believe in the myth of finite political capital. Once you get voted in, you can do whatever you want until you’re voted out, which is at least two years, and being too timid to “spend political capital” won’t make you less likely to be voted out.
If anything, one of the biggest reasons the D’s lost so badly in 2010 was because they didn’t go far enough. Obamacare was watered down so much that the left wing of the party was deflated - “Why did we work so hard to get you guys elected if you were going to do so little with it?” - and many stayed home in 2010 in discouragement.
But anyhow, back to the topic, yes, the Rs will rebound nastily quick from Trumpism and MAGA. If anything, the sheer headache of anything about “Trump” after 12 years of enduring the guy may make Democrats feel they shouldn’t mention Trump during 2029-2030 because the public will be so sick of him and his name. Everyone will just want to move past and put Trump behind in the past, which will enable the Rs to escape the taint of him somewhat.
I think it will depend on who the next Attorney General is. The Trump administration is engaged in so much corruption that it will take years to investigate it all but there has to be some low-hanging fruit that can be prosecuted with the quickness. Most importantly, the Democrats need to avoid another Merrick Garland, who couldn’t tie his shoes because he was afraid of it looking “political”. It is political but it’s not the weaponized politics of Trump 2.0. There are actual crimes being committed by politicians, for which there should be no get out of jail free card courtesy of them whining about politics. So if the Democrats can get an AG who isn’t weaponizing the DOJ but still understands that crime is crime, they can start putting the right people in jail. But whether or not this translates to continued electoral success will depend on whether or not the public agrees that the corruption of Trump 2.0 was a bad thing.
I’d love if the Democrats ran on a platform that was basically “enough is enough” and explicitly said it’s going to fix what Donald screwed up. Specifically, prosecuting people who broke the law regardless of optics, actively working to restore the programs and departments dismantled by his wanton destruction, and working their tails off to patch the holes in our laws that allowed for this crap to happen in the first place.
That would be what happens in a sane world, though, and I’m not convinced it’s a sane world.
To make my own prediction of what happens after, the optics to progressives will be that the Trump 47 crooks are mostly getting away with it just like the Trump 45 crooks did.
Trumpers have destroyed the DOJ Public Integrity Section and anything else connected with nonpartisan prosecution of political figures. Perhaps the legit prosecutors who were fired or quit in protest can be offered their old jobs back, but most will decline. They now have a good job and realize that in four years, they could be out of DOJ again. So rebuilding will be hard. It will take years just to get to the point where the Biden DOJ was on day one.
See my last paragraph above. The Attorney General, and the few political appointees under them, cannot do squat until a nonpartisan DOJ is rebuilt. Any competent AG – and the Democrats would nominate one – will face the same need to rebuild.
Suppose the new AG gives a speech asking partisan DOJ lawyers hired under Bondi and Blanche to quit. Progressives who dream of jailing Trump administration crooks will love that speech. But those GOP lawyers will not go on their own, and firing them for cause is going to take years, if it can ever be done.
A Democratic administration, can, starting in 2029, do a lot of good, fast. If Trump has conquered Greenland or the Panama canal, they can give it right back, maybe not on day one, but in month or so. Putting NATO back may only take a little longer. But rule of law means that prosecuting people who broke the law seems less realistic to me.
It was essentially a fluke that the Affordable Care Act got the needed 60 votes. The fluke will not happen again. Senate Democrats need to get rid of the filibuster. I’m a moderate, but I just don’t see a way forward without risking it next time the Democrats control both the White House and Senate.
While I agree with the solution outlined above, the problem is that it’s going to take years, at a minimum to do so. Those cases are going to go on forever and constantly be retried in the court of public opinion, leading up to the 2 years crash mentioned repeatedly upthread.
Sure, Day 1 should be fundamentally firing 50-60% (as a round figure) of the DOJ, ICE, HHS, and countless other enablers. A metric ton of others as well, and ideally many of them should be referred, with charges. But since they won’t see justice before the fix is in, it’s not going to accomplish much. Especially if the government is busy unfucking everything you laid out as well.
Seriously, I think the damage is too deep to repair most of the time. The only solution, is in addition to someone charismatic enough to inspire hope and the willingness to keep it going through several years, it’s going to take a “never again” grass-roots movement and enough political will to put major cleansing, and then getting our entire governmental system to enact laws with teeth upon themselves.
That’s more in “evil genie” land than my expectations for even the best minded politicians and well-educated voting public.
A -slightly- more possible scenario is convincing the public that, frankly, the oligarchs are the enemy, getting politicians to go along, and use some of those who terribly abused the law in this administration (I’m eyeballing Elon especially!) getting jailed and stripped of their wealth, with a large of it going back to the people. And since they’re flight risks… straight to jail, no bail, because that’s what happens to criminals, riiiiight?
Winning hearts and minds would probably be easier if Elon went to jail and 50% of his wealth was confiscated to pay everyone harmed in his DOGE information theft. Say another 30% paid to popular but underfunded programs like social security.
I’d take more, but leaving enough to keep the other oligarchs from outright rebellion/assasinations/etc. might be wise, but I’m not tied to it. And of course, if as much comes out as I might expect during a deeper investigation, well, it’s not like that 20% is secure from other claims in any way.
If we can break the common person’s view that these billionaires have any regard for them, or have any of their interests in heart, hopefully enough of them will crawl back to their holes and learn a modicum of enlightened self interest, which could possibly be enough to save us all.
Though considering the results of the prior American Civil War, the “Lost Cause” mythology, and everything that grew out of it, despite who did most of the dying for said cause… well, we’re capable of nearly infinite self revision to keep ourselves as heroes…
There won’t be a massive snapback. The country has become too divided and racist, and the base of people who vote GOP is too large for any meaningful snapback.
We had a snapback in 2006 and 2008 in response to Bush. The democrats got Obama as president and supermajorities in congress. Aside from the ACA, they did nothing with the power the voters gave them.
Even if the democrats win in 2028 all they’ll get is maybe a 3 seat advantage in the senate and maybe a 20 seat advantage in the house. They won’t push for meaningful reform, since meaningful reform will make the rich and powerful upset.
The real fear is someone as evil as Trump but who is actually intelligent wins the GOP primary in 2032 or 2036. The world is full of political leaders who are both evil and competent.
I feel like the biggest determinator is going to be whether or not Trump is still alive stirring shit after he’s out of office, or if he’s dead.
If he’s still around, MAGA is still around, and they’re going to vomit up candidates for every election from county dog catcher to President. Trump’s endorsement will still be a very important thing for some. And the cycle will continue with him holding the reins of the GOP (or whoever’s controlling him).
If he’s dead, then that’s when things get more interesting. At that point, the GOP leadership will face a sort of personality vacuum, as MAGA/Trump is more of a cult of personality than a fully formed and rational political ideology and movement. They’ll have the choice of returning to the status quo ante of 2015-ish, or to try and continue the far right wing policies of MAGA/Trump. I think what they do there will be highly dependent on how the voters respond to what the Democratic party accomplishes and proposes post-Trump.
Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the federal government and it’s going to take years just to get them back on track. It used to be the DOJ was a place some of the best lawyers wanted to work, at least for a few years, because it gave them valuable experience for more lucrative positions elsewhere. That’s no longer the case of course. You’re right that you won’t be able to get all the people who were fired or quit, but I bet you can get enough back to give it a good start. I suspect some of them actually care about the integrity of the DOJ and want to set things right.
I really don’t expect many, if any, people associated with Trump’s 2nd term to face any kind of serious punishment. I’d love to see what the hell Elon Musk was really up to with DOGE, but I’m pretty sure he doesn’t have to worry about anything. I don’t really have high hopes things will significantly improve over the next few years. Trump is a symptom rather than the cause of our current woes. Unless there’s a mass rejection of MAGA, I expect the United States will continue on battling itself.