So what happens when world oil reserves dry up? When the mideast no longer has a big hand in world oil production? Then what? I have heard conservative estimates out of the UK of 2010 being the highpoint and 2030 being close to the end.
Cite
here , it’s in PDF.
Whats going to happen when protesters can’t scream it’s a war over oil?
Should we not be thinking too far ahead? How much does alternate energy sources play into the global run for oil?
I don’t think the world, or the major suppliers, will ever run out of oil. As supplies dwindle, the price will get very high. People will be forced switch to very economical cars. Prices eventually get so high that alternative technologies and fuels become economically viable. This will happen long before the supply is gone. It will happen when production costs go way up. Having to drill low quality oil and other factors will weigh in. I’m no oil expert.
In the case of passenger vehicles it is economics, performance, and convenience that prevent alternatives from taking over. Electric cars are still hamstrung by range and economics. As has creeps up to $10.00 a gallon, suddenly we’ll find a way to deal with those issues.
Or, society collapses, I guess.
When the oil runs out? I think the US will lose all interset in the Middle East. Thats my uninformed opinion.
Well theres always whale oil? 
<I’m kidding>
So you’re expecting the conflict in Iraq to last until 2030? Saints preserve us.
IMO, when world oil and gas reserves decline below a level that can support present and estimated future production rates, we’ll either be forced to use less energy or rely more on alternative sources. When Middle Eastern reserves dry up, the countries involved will either have found alternative sources of income or will be pushed by market forces back toward subsistence economies.
Speaking strictly from an economic standpoint, my understanding is that most alternative sources of energy (except coal and perhaps nuclear) are more than twice the cost per KW/hour than hydrocarbon-based sources. Until the sustained cost of obtaining energy from hydrocarbons rises to the level of these alternative sources, they will continue to remain marginal.
OK, but taking the OP, what will happen in the Middle East when (many years from now, presumably) their oil becomes more expensive than the alternatives? Will their economies collapse? Or will they have learned to make something saleable out of sand? After all, how did they live before their oil became so valuable? They have more people now, and fewer other resources as compared to a couple of hundred years ago, I would surmise. Of course, if the extremists have their way, by then they will have extinguished or conquered all the minions of Satan (that’s me & you) in some way or other.
***Whats going to happen when protesters can’t scream it’s a war over oil? ***
Our particular brand of new-world protesters don’t need oil to scream oil. That implies reason. Reason requires thinking. These folks emote like stuck pigs.
No matter that they have yet to be stuck.
But when the Arabs do run out of oil they can do what the rest of the civilized world has done; dump silly antiquated customs and non-functional traditions, and join the free nations of the world that have representive governments and thereby allow the wonderful arab people to live long lives in comfort and peace.
South Korea didn’t have oil.
Taiwan didn’t have oil.
Et Cetera and So Forth didn’t have oil.
Well, there are other uses for oil than gasoline, after all. Various chemicals and plastics, mostly. So there will always be a market. However, a large-scale switch to either fuel-cell technology or electric (preferably powered by nuclear reactors) would definitely undercut the price.
But note that those figures in your cite are only for UK Energy resources.
But on the broader subject - many countries such as Kuwait ahve been steadily placing money into an account for the future, when they do run out of oil revenue. According to the EIA, Kuwait has a…:
well, they’re already at it.
look at this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2880975.stm
engine was designed a while back, but Shell bought the patent, and kept it to itself.
Now that oil is threatening toi run out in a few decades, they’re finally trying to implement it.
I for one applaud it, it’s a clean energy source!
elfje – question:
I am not knowledgable about the technology involved here, but it seems apparent that energy is consumed in making the hydrogen available for use. I’ve heard it suggested that the energy expended in doing so is greater than what you get out of it; in other words, you burn fossil fuels (or electricity generated via fossil fuels) to create the fuel cell components, and merely end up shifting the oil consumption to another place.
Can anyone comment on the validity of this?
I recall seeing a show a decade or so ago that showed an operating 100% hydrogen-fueled car, but don’t remember the details of how the fuel was stored, other than it was NOT a pressurized tank of any kind.
We’ve done the hydrogen thing many times over on the SDMB (check GQ). In essence, hydrogen should be seen as an energy storage medium (like a battery) rather than a fuel, since it does take more energy to extract the hydrogen than the hydrogen contains.
As I said earlier, fuel-cell technology would be best paired with either nuclear power or a more renewable power source such as solar, wind, or hydro.
It might be sooner than that. Thermal depolymerization is proven to work (its a process where you convert any carbon based solid into oil & gasoline) so independence from foreign oil may be even sooner htan that.
Only 30% of US oil comes from the middle east anyway. the rest is domestic, Russian, Canadian, Mexican, Venezuelan, or UK oil.
An article on a new Thermal depolymerization plant in Missouri
That kindof detracts from the OP, but it shows that lack of a trump card in the middle east may occur before oil reserves run out. The may 2003 issue of Discover magazine had a good article about Thermal depolymerization, it said oil could be made for $6 a barrel (OPEC charges $22-28 a barrel).
My guess is the middle east (except for Israel) will suffer a long term recession. If you look up the economies of Mid east countries in the CIA world factbook, many obtain 50-75% of their economies from oil related products. don’t know what they’ll do when that stops, they’ll probably shift to service industries (factories) or agriculture.
It may lead to a cultural renaissance.
Haven’t some of the Middle East countries used some of their wealth to start a banking system of some sort? I’m just wondering if the countries there have saved enough of their dough to become a major lending powerhouse.(Since if you know what you’re doing and you’ve got a few bucks you can make money with money.)
Countries who export oil face a major problem when it comes to exporting anything else, as the value of their currency is so high.
This has ruined much of the manufacturing in the UK.Manufacturers there hope for a boost when their oil runs out.
What happened to fusion power?
Obviously, we’ve opened up a can of worms with this subject, especially since the OP was a not very specific.
The base scientific/economic issue is that there is a finite amount of extractable oil in the world. It consists of the decomposed remains of prehistoric marine life, and takes millennia to form, hence the term “non-renewable”. Granted, we don’t know what that finite amount is, and the number changes all the time with new exploration techniques and extraction processes, but eventually (I can not give a date) there will simply be no more no matter what the demand is.
The question of what we will do for vehicle fuel has been explored extensively. But as several posters have mentioned, we use oil for a lot more than fuel, primarily plastics which are formed from hydrocabon compounds. We can get the same compounds from coal deposits (and we have more of those in America than anywhere else), but coal is a lot harder to get out of the ground than oil. If this does not get resolved, everything made out of plastic (which is a gigantic percentage of everything bought in the US) will go way up in cost. Our whole lifestyle for the last 30 to 40 years has been based on the idea that you can get plastic to behave the same way as older high quality resources at reduced cost. Plastic technology also forms the basis for higher performance materials that have created a revolution in countless industries in the last two decades. What happens when that plastic is no longer easily available? Back to steel for everything?
Politically, who knows? The US was in the same boat in the late sixties, when very suddenly it went from being an oil exporter to an oil importer. As I understand the situation, though, the Middle East states don’t consume oil the same way we do here, so their society will be more affected by the loss of income rather than the loss of fuel. They will definitely lose political power, and the world governments will be less interested in the region unless a new resource springs up.
Im looking forward to a time when oil becomes too expensive and essentially “runs out”. The Middle East will become a non-interest im sure. It will be a giant desert with little value so any war in the area would have little economic motivation. Im also looking forward to the end of oil for the sake of the environment.
Anyhow on the energy aspect, we will eventually have to switch to solar for a while until fusion is perfected. I speculate on solar because the sun is the indirect supply of all the earths energy. (wind, hydro, oil etc… can all be traced back to solar energy, with the exception of nuclear) The most efficient way to harness solar power should be directly once we gain the sufficient technology. This solar energy could then be stored in hydrogen “batteries” or some new type of battery.
I believe that fusion will someday be perfected and we will have reletively limitless power. This power could be used to fuel our unfathomable machinery and robots of the future… imagine all the free time and resources available once we get these things to work for us.
It is currently in the realm of sci-fi, but many of us may even see it in our lifetime(paradigm shift, exponential growth of technology, not to mention increased life expectancy). Its an exciting time to be alive IMO. I just hope we can make it to the future peacefully without killing ourselves off.
There is a persistent trail of research out here in soybean country that is looking into supplanting that (“soy ink” is one of the less unsuccessful products). All we really need are polymers. Plants are darn good at making polymers. Right now, plant sources aren’t as cheap as petroleum–right now. Eventually, petroleum will get to be too expensive.
It should be noted that a lot of petroleum is used right now in raising those plants, so there will have to be quite a bit of readjustment. However, so long as there are fissionable materials and that great big fusion reactor in the sky, something can be worked out–but the general luxurious levels of the US lifestyle will probably drop in the process.
I could deal with that, but it won’t be fun.