Another what if. Let’s say Al Gore had decided not to run at all in 2000, citing a desire to spend more time with his family. Who would have been the contenders and likely Democratic nominee in 2000? Wikipedia says that Bill Bradley was the only other candidate that cycle. But if Gore hadn’t run, I assume their would have been more candidates throwing their hat in the ring. I assume Joe Biden might have tried. The big question is would a more charismatic candidate have beaten Bush?
Look at the candidates in 2004:
John Kerry, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts
John Edwards, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew on March 2, 2004 and endorsed John Kerry)
Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont (withdrew on February 18, 2004 and endorsed John Kerry)
Wesley Clark, retired U.S. General from Arkansas (withdrew on February 11, 2004 and endorsed John Kerry)
Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio (withdrew on July 22, 2004 and endorsed John Kerry)
Al Sharpton, Reverend and civil rights activist from New York (withdrew on March 15, 2004 and endorsed John Kerry)
Joe Lieberman, U.S. Senator from Connecticut (withdrew on February 3, 2004 and endorsed John Kerry)
Dick Gephardt, U.S. Representative from Missouri (withdrew on January 20, 2004 and endorsed John Kerry)
Carol Moseley Braun, former U.S. Senator from Illinois (withdrew on January 15, 2004 and endorsed Howard Dean. She then endorsed John Kerry)
Bob Graham, U.S. Senator from Florida (withdrew on October 6, 2003 and endorsed John Kerry)
I expect many of them would have run in 2000 if Al Gore was not in the race
You also had the candidates who competed with Clinton in 1992. Paul Tsongas, who had been the most successful, died in 1997. But there was Jerry Brown, Bob Kerrey, and Tom Harkin.
Paul Wellstone also considered a presidential run in 2000. He dropped out for health problems (he didn’t know it at the time but he was in the early stages of MS) but if Gore hadn’t been running he might have chosen to go ahead.
Bill Bradley would still have run, had a decent shot at the Democratic nomination, and just might’ve beaten Bush. Bradley had an appealing life story, a good record in the Senate, didn’t have Gore’s baggage, and Cuban-Americans in Florida weren’t pissed off at him about the Elian Gonzales case.
Clark couldn’t have realistically run in 2000.
Joe Lieberman might have been the candidate. I never liked him myself, and the Democratic base certainly didn’t; but with the Lewinsky scandal still pretty current in the public eye, he might have had a chance for the same reason that Gore picked him for the VP spot.
If we assume that the pool of likely candidates would have come from the 2004 field, aside from those who actually did oppose Gore, I’d bet on Dick Gephardt, Bob Graham, and John Kerry. I’ll also throw in Joe Biden. And since we don’t have our obligatory southern Dem, which Democratic races always had still at that point, Sam Nunn. Nunn would have never had a better opportunity than a 2000 race without Gore. Maybe even Cuomo would have finally stopped teasing the Democrats, but I doubt it.
Unless Cuomo had finally run, it’s hard to pick a favorite from that group. I’ll just go with Graham because his stock was highest around this point. And I also think that Graham would have beaten Bush fairly easily. Graham in his prime was basically Clinton with the added virtue of honesty.
There’s also the wildcard: Hillary Clinton. As long as it was clear Gore was going to run, she needed to look elsewhere to start her political career. But with no Gore, no Cuomo, just a big field of Democrats of medium stature, why not give the Clintons another four years?
I don’t see how she could have run in 2000. She needed her time in the Senate to build up her own credibility.
Yeah, going directly from First Lady to President would be just too much for most voters.
What? Where do you think Bob Graham is from?
First, Florida isn’t really all that southern anymore, at least in terms of voting behavior(South Florida is blue, the rest of Florida is red), and second, Bob Graham didn’t have that Boll Weevil cred that would have gotten him a lot of delegates in the South. Sam Nunn did have that cred and would probably have won a bunch of southern delegates had he run in 2000 with Gore not in the race.
Graham was popular enough and well-known enough that Gore considered him for VP, didn’t he? And of course Florida turned out to be key in the 2000 election. I think Graham fits the bill for a Southern Dem in that election cycle.
Not in the sense of being conservative enough though. Graham wasn’t a liberal, but he was to the left of Clinton and Nunn and Gore(at least the 1988 version of Gore).
I agree, this is the U.S, not Argentina.
Frankly, someone such as Tom Daschle or John Kerry is likely to win the 2000 Democratic nomination in this scenario. As for whether or not the 2000 Democratic nominee would defeat Bush in this scenario, I think that Yes, it is likely that he would do so if he would run on Clinton’s economic record, have Clinton campaign for him, and perhaps distance himself from Clinton’s decision in regards to Elian Gonzalez (which might have hurt Gore among Cuban-Americans in 2000 in real life, especially in Florida).
Frankly, I think that Gore cared more about the Lewinsky scandal than most Democrats did. Thus, I don’t think that Lieberman would have had a serious chance of winning the 2000 Democratic nomination in this scenario.
Mario Cuomo was 68 years old in 2000. Thus, he would have probably been unlikely to run in 2000 or later (Yes, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Ronald Reagan were all 68+ years old as well, but unlike Cuomo, all of them have already previously ran for President and lost; in contrast, Cuomo never previously ran for President). Plus, I would think that Cuomo’s political image might have been somewhat hurt by his defeat in the 1994 New York Governor’s race.
Not happening; after all, Hillary Clinton was way too inexperienced for the U.S. Presidency in 2000.
Wasn’t Bradley too progressive for most Democrats in 2000, though? After all, weren’t centrist “New Democrats” all the rage back in 2000?
Frankly, Gore appears to have made a mistake in not choosing Graham as his VP pick in 2000 in real life. After all, Graham would have probably had broader and wider appeal in Florida than Lieberman had (considering that Jews only make up 5% or so of Florida’s total population).
That said, though, Graham appears to have been too boring and “plain” for a Presidential nominee. After all, candidates with inspiring life stories, charisma, et cetera are the ones who often appeal to the voters. 
With a guy like Bob Graham it all depends on the team he hires. Graham isn’t a charisma machine but he’s not boring either. The Graham we saw in 2004 was harmed by getting into the race so late that all the pros were already signed up by other campaigns, and the few that weren’t were waiting for Wes Clark, who jumped in even later.
If Graham had announced in 1999 for the 2000 race he would have been able to hire the best of the old Clinton team, being a fellow DLC moderate, which in turn would have drawn a lot of the younger talent wanting to get on board with a winner. David Axelrod, whose start in national politics was with JOhn Edwards’ 2004 campaign, might have been part of that team.