This past weekend saw, for the first time since the beginning of March, a poll that had a (slight) majority of French voters for the EU treaty (there are 25% still in the undecided camp.) If the French voters reject the EU in the May 29 vote are French politicians required to go along with the vote, or can they override their constituents wishes and sign the treaty regardless?
[quote]
[ol][li]The constitution would enshrine French values[]The constitution would be what EU states made of it, but could only boost French power[]The treaty was “essentially of French inspiration” - it was “the best possible” choice for FranceIt would only increase French and German influence in Europe[/ol]The constitution has to be ratified by all EU member states, but many of them are not holding referendums. The treaty is aimed at streamlining decision-making in the enlarged EU of 25 nations[/li][/QUOTE]
Kinda makes one wonder, in those other EU nations that will be holding a referendum, what effect will those frano-centric views have on the non-French voters.
I’m surprised how he expects Frenchmen to forget the fact that Germany was occupying them just 60+ years ago, much less have them believe that any treaty which increases German power is good for France.
Perhaps there’s internal polling data showing the EU Constitutional measure is least popular in Southern France. If that’s the case, any mention of German power could bring the polling numbers up is the Régime de Vichy.
Technically, the legislature could still ratify the treaty. The french constitution has already been amended (by the legislature) to allow for the ratification. So, what we’re voting about is the ratification law. And there’s constitutionnally no difference between a law voted by the parliament and a law adopted by referendum. So, a new ratification law could be passed one week after a negative referendum and would overule its result, since it would be more recent.
However, it’s of course politically impossible, at least in the short term.
The treaty must be ratified by all members. If France (or the UK, or Malta…) doesn’t ratify it, it won’t apply, and the former treaties will stay in force. However, there’s an article, buried somewhere in the treaty, stating that if all but a given number of countries (five, I think) ratify it, the issue will be refered to the EU commision. However, I’m not sure what the commission could do. Probably nothing apart from making proposals to solve the issue. And I don’t even know exactly the wording of the article (I was unaware of it, and heard it existed only yesterday while watching a debate on TV), and I’m not going to search for this couple lines in the 191 pages long document
Nobody’s pointed out that a No vote in France isn’t a “no to the EU” vote, just a vote against the constitution. If the constitution isn’t ratified, the EU will carry on as before.