Say, hypothetically, the independents all vote on the Pubbie side given that McCain/Romney is expected to be close, and Obama without them just squeaks by. Given that this game is all about expectations, will that be read as a victory of sorts for HRC and re-invigorate her campaign?
Also as an aside - make your President/VP predictions here.
I’m calling for Obama/Richardson vs McCain/Romney after a Dem nom that surprisingly goes to the wire (reports of HRC’s death are greatly exaggerated). Your turn.
As an Independent myself, I’m a little torn. I kind of like Obama, and I kind of like McCain. I think when my state finally has its primary in a few weeks, I’ll have to decide which one needs my vote the most. Man, if they ended up running against each other, it will be the first election in my lifetime in which I’ve not hated either (or both) candidates.
I know that doesn’t really respond to your debate, but I can identify with those NH Independents.
If HRC wins the nom, I kind of see her winning the general & getting 8 years while the GOP cracks up & reorganizes.
But I think with SuperDuperTuesday so big & so soon, Obama might just coast to the nom on his present charisma like John Kerry.
An Obama loss or effective tie with anyone in NH (today, right?) might presage an Edwards revival, even if the tie isn’t with Edwards.
And we’ve yet to see any primaries or caucuses in the Southwest, the South, or the West. Or any primaries at all, really. Richardson, despite failing in whitey-white Iowa, might get a resurgence in places which want an experienced moderate, even though this probably muddles already-muddled things further.
Right now, I think Obama gets the nom handily, but only barely wins the general after being reamed as a “yadda yadda yadda (commie alien nigra)” for 9 months by the right wing.
It could be, even though logically I don’t think it is. Right now it looks like she will lose by about 10 percent, and I think she had a big lead week ago. With all the pundits tripping over themselves trying to shovel dirt on her weepy corpse, if she even comes close they’ll talk about it like it’s a surprise.
I’m always too chicken for these things, but I’ll call it for Obama/Mark Warner and Huckabee/[del]Colbert[/del] [del]Norris[/del] McCain.
I don’t think Edwards would be willing to run in the VP slot again. And there’s no way Clinton’s ego would allow her to accept the Vice Presidency. Richardson I could see as anyone’s VP. If Clinton wins the nomination then Obama could very well be her VP.
Mark Warner is a mortal lock to win the Senate seat from Virginia being vacated by John Warner. Even if Obama is a clear favorite, there’s no way he’s giving that up.
My prediction is Obama wins in line with, or above, expectations, and at that point, everything else is academic. He’ll get the crucial union endorsment from the culinary workers in Nevada, win there, CRUSH Clinton in South Carolina, and then head into Super Duper Tuesday like the juggernaut Hillary once was.
I’m probably the only human on Earth who is not actually an optimistic Republican who thinks the Republican candidate will win the election this year. Iraq is fast receding as an important issue in the public’s eye, and if you think John Kerry got smeared, boy, just you wait until Obama is on the firing line and they start riling up the fundamentalist voters, telling them Obama is a Muslim and that he refuses to stand for the national anthem and wants to ban the Bible. I’m not exaggerating; lots and lots of people will be told, and will believe, those things, and many others like them.
Consequently, assuming Obama gets the nomination, HRC’s best strategy may be to wait for 2012 and see if Obama loses. If he doesn’t, well, she’ll never be President. But if she takes a VP nomination, well, she’ll never be President. Unless she wins this year her only chance would be Obama losing, a clown like Huckabee being a one-term disaster, and going for it in 2012.
I hope Obama DOES just skate by today. I want a contest. I think it’s best for the republic if we have spirited, lively, and longer campaigns (deeper into the voting calendar). It forces ALL of the candidates to keep sharpening their skills, and more importantly… their ideas.
Obama/Biden (experience debate would fade)
McCain/Huckabee (MeCain learned to respect and fear the evangelical vote, he’ll use it to his advantage this time)
Tighter than most might think - I’ll make no prediction for the winner.
I hadn’t thought about that. But I think somebody of the ‘new blood’ type, like a Warner or Schweitzer, is a good bet. I don’t think you’re going to see a team-up of two Senator ex-rival candidates this year, like we did in 2004. I can see someone picking Richardson as VP, but not Edwards - he wouldn’t accept it and I don’t think Obama or Clinton would offer. And nobody would ask Clinton. I see the options as someone ‘new’ or an older ex-Governor. Warner has the advantage of being from a key state, and I’m not sure if somebody like Rendell or Strickland are options.
She’s just as tough as John McCain but with a lot more ambition. She’ll be, I think, 68 by the next election. So she might give it another go, but the Clintons will be viewed as a relic by then, and if Obama gets two terms, his folks will own the party machinery and the last thing they’ll do is give it back to the Clintons.
I think Rendell is pretty tight with the Clinton crowd, and Strickland would like to finish out his first term. An Obama/Schweitzer ticket would make the Netroots cream their pants in delight, however. I think Jim Webb is also a good VP choice. The man eats raw iron for breakfast and spits out nails, and would put Virginia even more in play than it already is.
Every one of those claims has been debunked on Snopes. I really don’t think any of those issues will be raised except by the lunatic fringe…but I might be overly optimistic. Anyone who attempts to actually raise any of them will get crucified though so it will have to be a back door attempt.
I am not sure I agree with your assessment of the Pub’s chances or of Obama’s. I used to think like you…but all of the Republican candidates seem to be floundering for one reason or another. McCain? I’m just not seeing him winning against Obama…or Clinton either. Romney? Again, I’m not seeing it. The Huckster is just out afaiac…he has zero chance in a nation election. JMHO there.
That’s been going on for a while already, ya know. Along with occasional sly mentions of Bin Laden in the same sentence.
Ever hear the joke about Jesse Jackson arriving at the Pearly Gates? St. Peter asks him what he’d done in his life, and the answer is “I was elected the first black President of the United States”. St. Peter says “Really? I hadn’t heard about that. When did that happen?” Jesse answers, “About five minutes ago”.