I’m not suggesting Putin would risk nuclear annihilation using tactical nukes if that’s a real risk, but his goal was to wrap this up in a few weeks, and that’s clearly not going to happen. As Ukraine gets more advanced weapons from the West, and as Russia gets bogged down with supply chain issues, it may be months and tens of thousands of dead on both sides before Ukraine capitulates… assuming they ever do.
Putin may be looking for a quick and dirty way to end this before things at home get even worse than they already are. What I suggested is that tactical nukes would speed things up for Russia, but I think that crosses a line he’s not willing ready to cross… yet.
As far as the use of tactical nukes making Putin even more of a pariah on the world stage, I’m not sure how much more of a pariah he can be, and I really doubt at this point that he cares what anybody thinks.
Indeed, the use of nuclear weapons could cause honest-to-God panic. “We have to try to nuke them before they nuke us” is what might come flying out of Pandora’s box.
I sincerely doubt Russia possesses a nuclear weapon with such little yield. For all the odd panic about thermobaric weapons, they’re just bombs. A fuel/air explosive is not a new thing, and it’s just a bomb. The USA used them quite liberally in Vietnam,
Oh, there are definitely more depths to the hole he could dig downward. Currently, 30+ countries are still abstaining from a non-binding UN vote to censure Russia over its invasion, and at least 2 very large economic powers (India and China) aren’t even talking about sanctions at this point.
I’d bet China and India will continue to walk the fence for however long they need to. They can stay neutral and secretly support Russia and the oligarchs in a number of ways. And do you think Putin cares what the UN says? As long as Russia is on the UNSC they can veto any action the rest of the world might want to take against them. What can the UN do to punish him? What can any world body do to punish him without having him arrested, which is never going to happen.
In the face of nuclear weapons use against Kyiv?? I mean, I dislike China more than anyone on this board, but even I don’t think that would happen. As for India…no way would they tolerate that. They actually are a democracy, and if their government tried to continue this after such an event they would be out. Hell, a lot of Indians are concerned by the stance as it is.
Again, I don’t think you are really understanding how serious it would be if Russia nuked a city unprovoked.
That depends. Currently, China is trading normally with Russia, and they have even expanded future trade and have been pretty close to countering the west. India is not supporting sanctions and, again, continues to trade with Russia. If either of those countries changed policy and did start to do sanctions, and the west continued to up the sanctions (as they would if a nuke was used…hell, it would be an embargo of all Russian goods and services and any nation trying to continue to trade would probably be hit with the same), the Russian economy, already shaky NOW with what’s going on and even though several countries are still trading with them normally, would collapse. What Putin thinks of the UN is irrelevant to his entire economy completely melting down.
Most experts have no doubt that Russia has such tactical nuclear weapons, designed to be used in battlefield conditions. That’s the premise of the OP: using one of those. And indeed not much different in level of destruction between a barrage of “convential”, a large thermobaric, or a small tactical nuke.
From a purely destructive perspective no, not much difference. From the public perspective, I’d say it’s a huge difference. Though the sheer loss of life would also negatively factor in Russia’s image in any of those cases.
For reference, a tactical nuke like the Russian OTR-21 Tochka has a yield of 100 kilotons (about 5-10 Hiroshimas). Several orders of magnitude larger than a Daisy Cutter or either Parents of all Bombs.
For perspective, a 0.1 kiloton tactical nuke is equivalent to about 9 MOAB bombs. So a big blast indeed, but not that much in the bigger scale of things.
I hope (but am not optimistic) that the Russians actually shelling the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and causing fires might be enough for China and India to get off the fence.
If tomorrow, both of these countries announced that they are joining the rest of the world in the strongest possible economic sanctions, that would be the end. I predict that Putin would be “convinced” by someone close to him in the strongest possible way.
I wonder if at this point there are diplomatic channels humming, with many countries asking if India and China would please save the entire world from complete annihilation.
Just you? What does it mean, “5th wheel”?
One of the problems I see with bugging out is someone trying to take your stuff from you.
I didn’t question the plans of a guy, an off duty cop who was the security guard where I worked. He was going to take refuge with his family at an in law’s farm and grow food. I didn’t like the guy very much, so I didn’t ask him how he would defend a farm producing food for five people when other people suffering from a disaster decided to take it away from him.
Large trailer with a special hitch. And I have neighbors near this location who are hunters and who would not take kindly to anyone we didn’t know coming to try to take anything.