What if the population of Ethiopia instantly vanished today?
What would happen next?
How would the international community react?
How would Ethiopia’s neighbors react?
What geopolitical effects would this have?
I hope this.not a “need an answer fast” question?
The world would not react well to the magical disappearance of ~110M people ~= 1.4% of all humans. Whole lot of religious craziness and wacky conspiracy theories would rule the day.
But I suspect what you were really interested in was the sudden appearance of a large block of completely human-free ungoverned land which already has some infrastructure, farms, roads, cities, etc. just sitting there for the taking.
Gonna be a mad scramble as any nearby country, and every poor person within walking range, tries to move in and stake their claim to the goodies left behind. Gonna be chaotic.
It’s weird, I just started listening to Mulatu Astatke. Ethiopian jazz. As it plays, I see this. We would have some very cool jams to remember them by.
It wouldn’t mean that the population of the world would quit growing and even go down. The population of the world has been growing by 0.85% each year So in about two years the population would return to what it was before the disappearance. Incidentally, the closest to this in any fiction (in any sort of media) is the novel The Leftovers by Tom Perrotta and the HBO series based on it, where 2% of the population of the world disappears, scattered around the world rather than in one place.
I’m not sure a lot of people are going to want to run headlong into a place that evidently makes people disappear. The superpowers would likely cordon off the entire country and quarantine it; sending in small groups of military and scientists to run a million tests and expeditions.
You’d be surprised at the crazy things people would do. There would be all kinds of folks sneaking in to steal things or just for kicks.
Maybe it’s just me, but I really see two almost-unrelated hypotheticals here:
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The Ethiopians magically disappear, and most of the follow-on is about the rest of the world’s reaction to that magical disappearance. Oh yeah, and the empty space that leaves behind.
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The Ethiopians’ disappearance is just a handwave MacGuffin to get us into the real plot: how the world reacts to a significantly large & fertile hunk of unoccupied land with zero interest in how it came to be unoccupied.
I wonder whether the OP will elect to return and tell us which he’s interested in.
The 2011 novel The Leftovers and the HBO television series based on it might offer some clues what the response might be. In the novel and television series, two percent of the world’s population disappeared in one instant. This triggered massive upheaval in the remaining population, with some losing interest in conventional religions and others wondering if the event was the Biblical rapture (and if that was the case, why weren’t they swept up?).
Sorry, didn’t notice that this was previously mentioned.
Both.
An even more on-point fictional case
Reading that Wikipedia summary, the novel seems to be in part about the disappearance of the United States as the remaining superpower.
True - that doesn’t fit, but the freaking out about disappearances, and the sudden open territory does fit
I was thinking this was a reference to things like A Day without Immigrants or the film A Day without Mexicans.
Especially since Laura Loomer just posted about “Alligator Alcatraz” with “The good news is, alligators are guaranteed at least 65 million meals if we get started now.” i.e. the number of Hispanics in the U.S.
Maybe Italy will try again for a colony, now there are no Ethiopians to fight back! The presense of Ethiopians made that venture a bit tricky for them the first time they tried.
Also the Ark of the Covenant is alleged by certain religious groups to be held in the Church of Our Lady Mary of Zion in Axum, so without any Ethiopians we would soon find out.
If we are bringing in religion, perhaps the Rastafarians of Jamaica will claim ownership by divine intervention.
That was the example I was going to post, particularly to the idea of a “Virgin civilization” people could exploit.
A major part of this series is the environmental consequences of such a sudden disappearance. Every vehicle in motion gets into an accident. Every home with a stove or oven on risks a fire. Every industrial plant in operation risks an accident. And so on.
And there’s no one there to put out any fires. Most of North America burns to the ground in a matter of days. Ethiopia may be smaller than NA, but the local effects on surrounding countries will be dire. You sure as heck won’t be just driving up to your brand new vacant home.
It would lead to criminality and war.
With no people, there would be no government. This means no law enforcement or military. There would be a lot of property, though, including land, vehicles, weapons, factories, etc. I’d expect a rush of people trying to grab whatever they can, with lots of fighting over who gets what and over who gets to be in power.
I’d also expect outside countries to send in troops to try to get things under control. This would include nearby countries like Kenya, Uganda, and Egypt, and also global powers like the U.S. and possibly China. Violence and instability would probably spill over to neighboring countries, especially Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan.
Honestly, if such a completely inconceivable thing happened, I’m not sure how any proposed explanation could be safely dismissed as “wacky”.
Ethiopia has land disputes with almost all of her neighbours so it would be obvious that if her people vanished, the boarding countries would expand to claim large swaths of territory.
It would spurn quite a few wars of territorial colonization and expansion. Both from ad hoc groups of new settlers and state actors wishing to secure new valuable land.
Of course this is after things have calmed down and the land doesn’t prove to be actively hostile to life. Which would be proven almost immediately through the daily international transit that happens throughout Ethiopia’s historically porous borders.