What if...............

The south had won. Or at very least fought to a draw?
What would the U.S. be like today?

I say slavery would eventually have been done away with anyway, but blacks would not see equality and may have been deported or encouraged to leave.

I also think that the power of the federal government would be about 5% of what it is, with most decisions and laws being decided by each individual state. Thus, each state would be vastly different from the next as laws and customs would differ wildly. State senators and assemblymen would wield much more power than us congressmen do. Therefore progress, at least on a state by state basis, would be much easier to advance. I do think racism would prevail, and the country would probably be 98% white, though more so it the south as northern states would probably remain more liberal.

All in all, I say, that except for non-whites in the south, it would have been better for the south to have won.

The whole controversy about flying the Confederate flag in South Carolina never would have come to pass.

pkbites

This is alot like saying that except for the Jews, it would have been better if Hitler had won.

Also, you seem to be assuming that the US would have remained one country had the South won. This is not the case.

I’ve been reading Harry Turtledove’s alternate histories lately, and he makes a convincing case that it would have been bad news all around, including for the wealthy Southern white class – vengeance delayed is vengeance redoubled, so to speak. His world is far grimmer than the one we know, not quite a dystopia but coming close.

You mean that all the cities in the same state would have to obey the same laws, and would be denied their freedom to conduct affairs as they see fit? Why do you assume that the citizens of Needles, California have the same needs as the citizens of Los Angeles? Oh, the horror! :eek: This would be a tyranny of the state over each municipality.

Why would 98% white be better? Though of course Lawrence Welk and Pat Boone would be happy, their record sales would have gone through the roof without the influence of those african rhythms to pervert american music.

I remember studying in history class in college many years ago that the South had planned to build its own empire by invading Mexico and the Caribean. Assuming this is true, I doubt that having a slave based empire in this hemisphere would be a positive thing.

It’s very difficult to envision the CSA as a good place to be. Internationally, it would have been a pariah. The society and economy of the CSA would have been feudal, with a small class of extremely rich plantation owners, a large class of poor white farmers and a large slave population. When you throw in a large, victorious and highly popular army, I think it is safe to say the CSA would have evolved into a country that resembled a Latin American military dictatorship.

It’s unlikely that the rest of the USA would have stayed together. We would have had a continent of small, warring nations instead of a peaceful, united country.

And I don’t buy this position that states rights equal more progress. When have states rights ever been used for anything except reactionary politics, for instance, segregation? The only exceptions I can think of are anti-drug war state proposals.

Hmmmmm? We did win…we just never told yall!!

This is interesting, but I don’t see how it’s a GQ. There is no definite answer. Anyway, I think Silvio is right. The USA would be a small nation, limited to its pre-war land and whatever it could buy off of the Brits from the DoC (Dominion of Canada), which may well be the northern midwest and some of the Rockies. It would not be a rich land, or an agricultural one, but its technological wealth could have surpassed all others. The WSA (Western States of America) would have formed from non-Spanish, non-RoT (Republic of Texas), non-BFR (Bear Flag Republic, what we know as California) western land and would probably include a large portion of escaped slaves. Texas would have become its own nation, fiercely independent and fighting with Spanish Mexico. The CSA would have been positively feudal with an agrarain economy and little oceanic trade. The USA would own the Atlantic, the RoT would own the Gulf, and the BFR would have ships in the Pacific, and might do trade with Asia and Russia, but it would not ‘own’ anything except land. Cuba might end up a CSA state, with a 1000:1 ratio of hispanic slaves:free whites. Little more than a vassal, with garrisons for when the slaves rose up. I can easily imagine Jefferson’s dream of the self-sufficient agrarian small farmer being perverted by tyrranical plantation owners ruling their land and their slaves like feudal lords ruled their fiefs. Yes, the CSA would be very feudal, mired in a decaying past with a nowhere, backwater economy and a dying culture. The USA would advance, but not nearly as much as if it had the immense agricultural and labor resources of the South. Texas would end up much like the CSA with limited access to trade and limited resources to trade with. Ditto with the WSA and California. In all, Europe would have kept their cultural and economic hedgemonies much longer without American competition.

I like Harry Turtledove’s books on this, espically the first.

It’s a tough call. Assuming the Confederacy would have won without most of the south being ruined, once a good cotton crop would have been planted, you would have had the money coming back in. Things probably would have stagnated, to a large degree, rather than the “equality” after the civil war up to the Civil Rights Era, you probably would have had much the same racisim as before. You’d still have 20-25 families controlling most of the land in the state.

Ugh, there’s so much that would be different. The south would have had an interesting Government, that’s for sure. :slight_smile:

Let me explain something. When I said I thought the country would be 98% white, I didn’t mean I wanted it to be that way, it’s just the way I’d guess it to be if the south had won. I think eventually southern leaders would realize the evil of slavery but not the evil of racism. Therefore eventually they would say “You’re free, but get out of the country” This is just a theory.

I don’t think they’d end slavery, but a lot of historians suggest that the Southern system would’ve fallen anyways, in a few years: it was fucking backwards.
No factories, no real industry or commercialism…just tons and tons of farms. And not just cotton, sugar, rice, coffee, tobacco, etc etc.
All in all, the system in the South was going to fall anyways, the Civil War just speeded it up.
(Note: this is what I’ve read and studied, if I’m wrong, please point it out to me…)

My own PERSONAL view is that maybe we’d end up like Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland…Now THAT’s a scary thought!

Um, the south could only win by not losing, it’s the same thing with Israel, it lacked the numbers to conquer its enemies, it can only defeat them militarilly. So, if the South won, Germany would win World War I, because the US would lack the strength to get involved. Use your imagination about what would happen after that.

No, we’d end up like Hati and the Dominican Republic: One is doing something, the other isn’t, but neither is doing much. I think the CSA would become so insular that terrorism would be the least of its exports.

Never forget that Great Britain’s Indian Colonies began to produce large quantities of cotton in the 1870’s. This met the needs of English textile industry.

So,the South’s economic basis would have gone up the flue.

National depression.

Many slaves released due to lack of need, or an inability to feed 'em.

Slave rebellions.

Additional people walking in John Brown’s footsteps.

Some of this has already been alluded to by earlier posters, but:
At the time of the Civil War, the Canadian provinces were part of the British Empire, and not yet our nice, peaceful, allied neighboring nation (the confederation, a major step in the formation of a self-governing nation, wasn’t formed until 1867); Mexico was a monarchical French puppet state; Alaska was still Russian America; and of course Cuba was still a Spanish colony. With the USA fragmented, you can kiss the Monroe Doctrine goodbye. Any state or region seeking to secede from either the USA or CSA would probably find eager European backers, ready to play the old divide and conquer game. As late as World War I, the Germans sought to interest Mexico in the recovery of at least some of its lost territories–in the 1860’s, that would have been much more of a live issue. A lot of people assume the CSA would have turned imperialistic vis a vis Mexico, but with Great Power backing, the Mexicans might have tried to return the favor. Or perhaps both Mexico and the CSA (or Republic of Texas, or whatever) could have lined up European allies–then Americans could have had the experience of being pawns in the “Great Game”. Throw in a Haiti-like black republic in Mississippi or South Carolina (there were parts of South Carolina down on the coast where the population was 90% slaves) and we start to sound more like the Balkans than the land of the free.

Read the Gettysburg Address again some time. Lincoln was right to fear that the Civil War was a test of democracy’s survival. What other countries were free and democratic in 1860? France was an empire; Germany was a bunch of petty monarchies, on the eve of being unified into a big monarchy; Italy was much the same as Germany; Russia was a despotism; Austria-Hungary was at least better than Russia; Britain was becoming a representative democracy–but would it have stayed on that course if American democracy had failed in a big, messy way? The rest of the world was in the process of being carved up by European empires. I haven’t read the Turtledove series–I read his Guns of the South, and started to read his “aliens-invade-the-Earth” alternate World War II history–but it sounds pretty interesting. I definitely agree that this continent would be a lot nastier place, and maybe the world would be too, if the South hadn’t been defeated.

Actually, I didn’t think of what Mexico would do. I don’t know what the condition of the Mexican military was after the American Civil War, but it was considered pretty good at the time of the Mexican-American War, in spite of the beating they took. The Mexicans would have been natural enemies of the CSA. They hated slavery. There was the the religious warfare element of Catholic Mexico versus the mostly Southern Baptist CSA. Not to mention the vengence factor. I think a Mexican move, perhaps supported by the French, against Texas would have been very possible.

Come to think of it, the only other people who I can think of that would have benefited from a Confederate victory (besides slave owners) would have been the American Indians. It is easy to see the Mexicans and maybe even the British supporting southwestern and plains Indians to prevent expansion by the weakened USA into the West. The Indians might have kept their independence, and the cut-off West Coast might have developed as a separate country.

Another what-if? How about the Russians? Would they have been more determined to hold onto Alaska and even expand their holdings if they did not face a stronger USA? I could envision a British versus Russian War in the American Northwest.

It is hard to see the Confederacy holding it together as a viable nation for long. When the whole principle of your country is that you can break-off any time you are unhappy, it’s hard to keep that country. States rights helped doomed the Confederacy in our history, and would not have served it well if it had somehow one. It is easy to see the United States constantly supporting slave revolts. The USA also would have supported guerilla movements in anti-CSA regions such as East Tennessee, which would have included my own ancestors, who were anti-Conferderate East Tennesseeans.

All interesting what ifs, and probably better than Turtledove’s. In my opinion, he has the Stars and Bars wrapped around his heart, as he dramatically overstates how well the CSA would have survived and the willingness of the British to directly support the Confederates.

Hmmm…I don’t think so…didn’t you read the part about the “serf” revolts? I do agree that he is an admirer of Robert E Lee, and I do think that the south would have had to abandon slavery at some point…probably when Indian cotton production destroys the export-based plantation system.

Remember that during Revolutionary war times, slavery was dying out…there were fewer and fewer slaves, and it was hoped that slavery could wither away. But the industrial revolution paradoxically saved slavery…all those industrial textile factories created insatiable demand for cotton…and slavery was the cheapest way to produce cotton. Cotton saved the slave-holders.

I also think that he imagines that the CSA would have changed somewhat after the war…the CSA he presents is certainly centralized, and not a loose confederation, whatever lip-service they give. And yes, given Britain’s real-life opposition to slavery, it’s hard to see how they could have remained allies with the CSA without the abolition of slavery.

But we have this idea that a northern victory was inevitable, and we can list the huge discrepancies in railroads, factories, manpower, etc. But the south wasn’t trying to conquer the north, they were only trying to avoid being conquered. I mean, look at Afganistan, or Vietnam…two superpowers lost to pre-industrial countries. Of course, even if the CSA won the war it would have evolved into a pretty crappy place to live. The point is that we can easily imagine the north giving up and recognizing the CSA out of exhaustion.

Anyway, I imagine the world would be much worse off if the south had won…slavery continued longer, replaced by slavery in all but name, the Balkanization of America, Europe more powerful but much less democratic, Latin America recolonized, much less trade, an oligarchic CSA, a much less democratic USA, a militarized US-Canada border…

Well, we would probably have never seen the rise of Hitler. That’s a good thing. WWII would have totally different players and sides. A powerful German/Ottoman alliance might have thwarted Stalin. That too would probably have been good.

There’s no real argument as to who should have won WWII, and we are lucky that the right side did…but WWI was a much more morally ambiguous war, and I think it ended in one of the worst possible ways, setting up the world for much future grief.

Ooooh, I just love playing “What If,” the forbidden fruit of the budding historian.

Know what I think would have happened? You’d see a second war within twenty years, a world war. Why?

That c**ksucker Karl Marx, that’s why.

A divided America would have made the remaining United States a perfect target for communism, exactly as Marx planned it (Russia was too backward for Marx’s plans, but that’s where the chips fell). The North was exactly what he was looking for, an industrialized nation controlled by the will of the people. Without the conservative South to temper their aspirations, I believe the North would have moved to Owenite socialism quickly, Marxism soon afterward, and, as history shows, communist dictatorship shortly thereafter.

Canada, Queen or not, and the CSA would be forced by circumstance to jump 'em, and it would have been a mighty tangle. The participation of the Brits would probably be the deciding factor. A world war in America may well have served to partially unify Europe, still stinging from the revolutions of 1848, while the CSA would fall increasingly under the influence of other nations.

Slavery? Forget it. South Africa figured out how to keep it in spirit while profiting from the lack of name. The CSA would have fallen to the same conclusion.

World wars advance technology in leaps and bounds, and with the Reds focusing their efforts on North America instead of Europe, folks like Tsiolkovsky, Einstein, Maxwell, and others might have had a lot more toys to play with than they did. Since I’m pulling this out of my ass, I’d say we would have had dirigibles twenty years sooner, internal combustion engines fifteen years sooner, heavier-than-air flight fifteen to twenty years sooner, and space travel by the time Flash Gordon started hitting the silver screen in our universe.

It also would have been a shitty world in which to live. As a Virginian, I’m so glad those bastards lost it makes me smile in my sleep. There would be no room for the likes of me in a world where America was divided.

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I suppose many people are really interested in the “what if” category of history. At best one can make an educated guess as to what may have been. Let’s take another look at your scenario. If the south had won odds are the country wasn’t razed by the Union troops. Eventually the south would have gotten rid of slavery but without the sting of a lost war or reconstruction perhaps they wouldn’t have been so hard on african americans. Just a thought.

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Or maybe the Federal Government would have gone for a mad power grab to ensure that other states did not flee. Perhaps they would invade Canada because they were pissed off about British aid to the former states of the south.

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Were they vastly different when the country was founded in 1776? Common law was pretty much the same throughout the states, religious beliefs were fairly close, and they all spoke english. I’m not saying there weren’t differences, there are still differences between states today, but vastly different? I don’t think so.

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Why would the country be 98% white? Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t recall any point in our own history where a great number of Africans voluntarily migrated to the United States. That must mean that most African Americans are descendants of slaves. I believe about 13% of the population is made up of african americans. That’s a little more then 2%. Also I’m not convinced that racism would have been as bad without the burden of losing a war and going through reconstruction.

Based on what evidence? Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and George Bush, Jr., all hailed from the south. THere are quite a few famous senators and congressmen from the south. Economically many areas of the south are booming right now. I’d say that overall we’re all doing better with the south in the union.

Marc