Short answer is “get under the other side’s skin” - and it’s working.
My totally uninformed expectation has Pelosi anticipating really nasty evidence forthcoming, evidence that makes defending Tramp suicidal for GOP senators. My fear is that Tramp will pull a horrible WagTheDog event if he feels such evidence is about to emerge. Can his financials, showing he’s owned by Putin, be released before he launches?
The timing of the impeachment turned out to be a bit tricky - it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it coming right around the holidays was a factor, and not for any deep Machiavellian reason, but just because Pelosi didn’t want to appear to be trying to spoil Christmas for anyone.
Besides, letting Trump twist in the wind is fun and since he couldn’t keep his mouth shut even if chewing on a superglue sandwich, letting him bluster and blurt is more likely to hurt him than help him.
Yeah, I’d say that’s the likely fact. Pelosi knows he won’t be convicted on the available evidence. Stringing it out a bit just indicates that she’s hoping he’ll tweet out or say something really dumb and move more people against him.
I don’t think for a moment that she went into this thinking a conviction and removal was in the cards. This is aimed at making him jumpy and improving D chances overall next November. Nothing more.
My impression is this.
- it makes people notice the GOP won’t have a fair trial in the senate, because they have said they won’t
- After Trump is acquitted he can say he is innocent. If there is no trial he can’t say that
- It irritates Trump and makes him do stupid(er) things
- A senate trial could require people like Warren, Booker, Klobuchar and Sanders to stay off the campaign trail which would cut their fundraising, voter turnout, etc.
- rather than impeachment being something that is forgotten by election time, it’ll still be fresh in people’s memory when the election is held
- The GOP is just going to turn the entire senate trial into a trial against Joe Biden, his son and Hillary Clinton.
Only nitpick is: Pelosi knows that he won’t be convicted despite available evidence.
I wonder if there is any advantage to releasing these articles to the senate, at all. The house voted to impeach and that will stand, regardless. A couple of political wonks debating back and forth whether impeachment requires senate vote is immaterial to what happens in the 2020 election year. Effectively denying Trump and McConnell vindication in the senate is far more valuable. What’s to be gained by allowing the psychological and political advantage to be neutralized by a vote to exonerate by an openly rigged GOP controlled senate?
This is as much about twisting the knife in Trump as it is about twisting the knife in McConnell and the GOP in the senate. And the more new evidence of Trump’s malfeasance comes out, the harder the twist of the knife.
Question: So can Nancy pull a mitch and just not pass them over at all? Just call it a “Merrick Garland” type of discarded norm and move on?
Yes, she can.
Though I dare say actually stating this lets the air out of the situation. Better to stretch the uncertainty for as long as possible.
Nit pick: “Nothing more” is not accurate or descriptive at all for this situation. The variables are legion. ternups mental state, rebupki senators, the american public. You can’t go into a fight like this by limiting your remit like that.
Q: What is Speaker Pelosi’s strategy?
A: Ask her, not us. We can only guess.
Just for the record, the Biden family have not committed any crimes here.
This seems like the best analysis to me. Pelosi knows conviction is an extreme longshot, she just wants to make the process as politically costly as possible for Repubs. She’s doing this by keeping impeachment a live concern in public awareness, which creates a longer window of pressure for Republicans to defect, or Trump to do something stupid, or new damaging information to emerge.
And for Pelosi, there’s no cost in delaying. McConnell established the precedent of “we’ll just sit on this” for the Garland nomination. Repubs have no recourse here and it’s driving them crazy.
Imagine if Trump actually does something rash like subpoenaing Biden, and Biden says “fine, just sit tight while we fight that in court.” Of course Biden wins after a few month, and this delays the impeachment trial until June just as the Mazars/DeutscheBank cases are decided in SCOTUS and Trump’s financials come out.
Trump’s one winning lifetime strategy has been running out the clock in court, and it’s beautiful to behold his dawning realization that his one reliable trick now works directly against him.
Those are very specific chains of events I’ve laid out, and it may not go exactly like that, but the longer Pelosi lets this simmer, the more opportunity there is for Trump to step into traps that we haven’t yet seen, and for Republicans to take the political hit on it.
What crimes are those, if it’s not too much trouble?
If it IS too much trouble, same question. I’m not feeling particularly charitable today.
Plus, McConnell has basically said this will not be a fair trial. Pelosi just wants to delay so Republicans have to back track a bit and say, yea, ok we’ll consider it a bit but not much. Keep that message out there that the Republican Senate is in no way fair or unbiased. The “first hand” witnesses are being blocked by Trump. Keep making them say, “Relevant witnesses will not be allowed to testify by order of Trump and Republicans”. The message will hit a lot of voters.
I think Pelosi is holding back because the “crime” is still ongoing. Trump still has his henchmen “investigating” the Bidens, much in the same way he “investigated” Obama’s birth certificate. He continues to tease the story in much the same way, by talking about how much wrongdoing is being uncovered without ever revealing what the wrongdoing was.
Trump is amoral and dishonest and he cheats. In everything. He refuses to acknowledge that there are rules and laws that bind him. He doesn’t think what he did was wrong. He would do the same thing again tomorrow, given the opportunity. He sees no distinction between “good for the country” and “good for Trump” He’s going to do something worse sooner or later, probably sooner.
It’s an election year. I think Pelosi should treat the articles of impeachment like a Santa Claus naughty list. As Trump continues to blatantly and openly cheat, she can keep adding to it.
The answer is there is not one reason in the sane universe to deliver this sooner rather than later.
Depends. McConnell might hold the trial regardless. And then it goes to the Courts.
If there aren’t any prosecutors (House Managers) to exhibit the Articles, then there can’t be a trial. McConnell can have whatever crazy proceeding he wants, but Chief Justice Roberts isn’t going to sign off on calling it a trial if there aren’t any prosecutors.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/a-gangster-in-the-white-house/ar-BBYpVkW
At the end of this opinion piece the writer claims Pelosi predicted, “Trump would impeach himself.”
“Claims” ? It was rather widely covered at the time, though she did say it behind closed doors.