>>Any given body of data (no matter how large) will always be
>>agreeable with an unlimited number of alternative theories.
>>Invariably there are many theories that explain the exact same
>>data, and at least some of the theories will contradict each other.
>>Some of these empirically indistinguishable theories may be
>>elegantly simple and others may be outrageously complex, but
>>multiple alternatives exist for any set of data.
>>
>>When the right ad hoc hypotheses are made, the theory of the
>>moon being made of cheese becomes empirically identical to the
>>moon being rock-like. This sort of thing is not limited to ridiculous
>>theories about the moon’s composition. It’s possible to modify
>>virtually any theory so that it’s consistent with whatever data that
>>might come up.
>
>Yes, ‘alternatives’ exist. But the probablilities, based on massive numbers of other >observations, are not identical.
Glee, you almost made it sound as if you were referring to something I hadn’t already addressed. I never claimed that if theories are empirically identical then they are rationally identical. Indeed, I claimed just the opposite and used an example to prove my point. I explicitly said, “Of course, it is possible to rationally discard this absurd theory [referring to the moon being made of cheese], but the point is one cannot do this merely by pointing to the data.” And that point still stands. You need some sort of nonempirical principles if one is going to pick a theory from among its empirically indistinguishable siblings and justify the claim that the theory is correct. You mention probabilities. Unfortunately, there is that there is no rigorous logical procedure (an example of a rigorous logical procedure would be the quadratic formula or Horner’s algorithm) to determine the extent to which data confirm a theory. Ultimately, scientists instead intuitively feel how rational theories are, rather than having a precise logical method for such judgments.
Some have mistaken my position as a sort of skepticism of science. Granted, the view seems, at least on the surface, to provide shakier ground for science to operate. But science can still be a rational pursuit. Just as we have rational, though ultimately nonempirical, reason for rejecting the belief that the moon is made of cheese, so too can we rationally reject and accept scientific theories. As with many professional scientists, I too accept realism.
msmith537:
>Science, philosophy and religeon are not the same
>thing. It’s like comparing apples and …I don’t know…
>infinity. Science is an explanation on HOW the
>universe works. It is useful for explaining things like
>an object will always fall at 9.8 m/s2 in Earths gravity.
>Religeon is useful for attempting to explain WHY the
>universe is the way it is. One is based on repeatable
>observation, the other is based on faith.
Science and religion may be more similar than you think msmith537. Yes, there are differences in the topics covered, but the methods need not be as divergent as you seem to imply. For instance, how can one go about justifying one’s religious belief? One way is to point out some data that can be repeatedly exist, and show that one’s religious belief offers explanatory power. For instance, a theist can point out that nature consistently operates in highly sophisticated mathematical patterns, and say that this is because a rationally orderly God created the universe. This isn’t a rigorous proof, but it can offer some limited degree of rational support, and the philosophical principles I mentioned need to be used to pick out one belief from among it’s empirically identical siblings.
Truth Seeker:
>>Invariably there are many theories that explain the exact
>>same data, and at least some of the theories will contradict
>>each other.
>
>False. If there are two competing theories that “contradict”
>each other, the proper scientific response is simply to make
>a new observation regarding a point of “contradiction.”
That observation will agree with one theory and contradict the other is not always possible, as I pointed out in my “moon is made of cheese” theory. I can easily modify it so that it’s empirically identical. But let’s use another example. An unknown force created the universe and everything in it (fossils, memories, corpses, gray hairs, everything) five minutes ago. You can’t point to any piece of data to disprove the theory. Anything you point to, whether it be a wrinkle, tombstone, or anything else, was created five minutes ago with all its deceptive appearances. This can easily fit every piece of empirical data you can think of. It is completely empirically identical with the universe being billions of years old. Is the five-minute hypothesis rational? No. It’s absurd. But we can’t reject it merely by pointing to the data. Hence the requirement of nonempirical principles.
>>When using values to select a theory, we must have some
>>philosophical basis for believing that nature’s preferences
>>are similar to ours. And for many of these principles there
>>is no logical rule to imply their reliability. For example,
>>in picking out a theory from among it’s empirically
>>indistinguishable competitors (and when all other
>>factors are held constant), the notion that reality favors
>>simple theories over complex ones is nevertheless a
>>philosophical principle.
>
>This fundamentally misunderstands what proper science is
>trying to do. Science is about discovering a pattern in data
>and using that pattern to make predictions. It is not, strictly
>speaking, about discovering “reality” or “truth.”
>
>For the scientist, things like Occam’s razor, are practical
>precepts, not philosophical principles. Scientists choose
>the simplest theory that explains that data because it is
>practical to do so. Simple theories are easier to work with
>than complex ones, so if a simple theory predicts the
>data as well as a complex one, use the simple one.
You’ve made the fallacy of hypostatization, treating an entity (science) as if it were a person (“…what science is trying to do.”). If you were trying to convey I was misunderstanding what scientists try to do (science is an abstract concept and has no will of its own), then you are mistaken. Most professional scientists do believe they are discovering the truth about nature. For instance, they believe that there really are such things as atoms, DNA, and so forth. They don’t use such theories just because it’s convenient to describe a pattern. They accept them because they believe them to be true. But if one is going to do that, one must follow the type of method I described when picking between empirically identical theories. (Most scientists believe that the universe much older than five minutes old etc.) Given that, things like Ockham’s razor really are philosophical principles.
WJ!:
>Wade!
>
>Aside from questions like the meaning behind all
>human beliefs or belief systems, is the short
>answer to the question found in the mystery of
>human consciousness [the essences of]?
I was thinking more of a basic principle of belief. But the answer to that could conceivably lie in the mystery of human consciousness, or the essence thereof.