If you want to know the actual probability, take a poll on this MB and then divide the results by 100. 
Both. Impeachment is an extraordinary event in American politics; using it twice against one administration would be unprecedented. The Republicans certainly wouldn’t want to do it against an administration from their own party. And if the Democrats regain Congress in 2020 and tried it, I feel it would make them look vindictive and backfire against them.
In addition, I feel the case against Pence is weaker. Trump is a central figure in “the Russian thing” and Pence is out on the edges. And Trump is a lot more disliked than Pence is. Finally, Pence is smarter than Trump is; Pence would be able to mount a more credible defense, legally and politically, than Trump would be able to manage.
Yeah, Pence is probably smart enough not to brag about firing the FBI director over The Russia Thing on national TV.
One thing Trump has going for him over Pence is experience. Experience in dealing with lawsuits, that is.
Hey, nobody knew that presidenting was going to be this hard!
True, but he didn’t fire Comey because of the Clinton emails, and Sessions/Flynn/Kushner/Manafort didn’t happen to forget those pesky little Russian meetings when they filled out their paperwork. They did these things to try to cover up what they were doing. There is no other rational explanation.
“Eventually” isn’t exactly a longshot here.
Agree. Pence’s purpose, like every VP’s, is to be the spare President in case something goes wrong with the main one. To be sure, if Pence is equally implicated in corrupt skullduggery, or is killed in the same attack, or eats the same bad fish, or whatever, he may fail in his role as spare.
The idea that Pence has a duty to resign, especially to resign first, over something Trump did that Pence didn’t, is laughably backwards.
Agree with the first part. Every VP worth his paycheck should have considered that question and have an answer on file. Several answers in fact, each at least partly pre-vetted and fully prioritized.
As to the second part I agree it was the mainstream Establishment Insider R’s backup plan. Not necessarily anyone else’s backup plan.
If Trump delivered the goods on deregulation / tax cuts / well-targeted deficit spending as expected, however unconventionally he did it, they (EI R’s) would be OK. If Trump went too far off the ranch, they believed/hoped they could rein him in or push him out and Pence would be a tractable ordinary hum-drum spare.
If indeed the EI R’s had that plan then so far events are not unfolding according to either branch of their plan’s decision tree. And Trump’s election process, if not exactly his administration’s performance, has certainly enlivened the non-EI part of the R coalition. Which also can’t be something the EI crowd is happy to see.
IOW, to the degree that was the plan it’s shaping up so far as Epic Fail. But it’s early days yet and the EI crowd may yet pull victory from the jaws of trending gently towards defeat.
The salmon mousse!
Never put moose in the salmon. The flavor of antlers clashes with the delicate fish.
Well then, the answer’s simple. Pence should have the lasagna.
Impeaching Trump is a silly dream to begin with, so you might as well dream BIG. Every Republican in Washington was in cahoots with Putin, so they ALL go to prison and the Supreme Court (minus Gorsuch, Alito, Roberts, Thomas and Kennedy, who are all in jail) declares Hillary the rightful winner.
This scenario is no more farfetched than the OP’s.
Depends on whether Pence is implicated, and how unpopular Pence is.
Removal from office after Impeachment requires 2/3 of the Senate. Appointing a new VP requires a majority of both houses. In the case where 2/3 of the Senate has just removed Trump from office, if Pence is also tangled up in it (or enough people think he is), I don’t see a majority of Senators letting him pick a VP.
So they would just not approve anyone Pence picked for VP?
If Pence were tangled up in it, then I suppose eventually Pence would also be impeached and removed from office. Then Paul Ryan becomes POTUS. IOW not confirming anyone means confirming (more or less) Paul Ryan as VP.
Regards,
Shodan
Exactly.
Maybe. I mean, I’m not making a solid prediction, just offering a possible scenario. I still think Trump removal from office is pretty unlikely. But if it does go down, he’s going to be pretty damned unpopular at the time. If Pence gets mired in that (for whatever reason) and Ryan manages not to, I can easily see them letting it go to Ryan rather than confirming any Pence nominee.
But why would Ryan-I-need-concessions-to-take-this-job take the job of undertaker for the Trump administration? He’ll be out of the house, and the splatters frim the multiple scandals that led to this scenario would make it impossible for him to run on his own.
Does he HAVE to take it, can he say no?
Since impeachment is a political process, doesn’t this boil down to a political question? That is to say, if Ryan wants to be president and the Republican leadership supports him they will impeach and convict both together. If Ryan doesn’t want it or the leadership prefers someone else, they will go one at a time and put the new person in place during. All based on the far-fetched assumption that there are grounds to go after both and the Republicans decide to go for it.
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Fighting the hypothetical
Pence will not be impeached. I think it is pretty clear he had nothing to do with the Russians and neither did Trump. What they would impeach Trump for is obstruction of justice, the same thing that forced Nixon out.
Serious question. What would convince you that there was collusion between Russia and Trump?
There’s one major difference between Trump and Pence; if Pence sees the writing on the wall and his impeachment/removal looks certain he’d probably just resign like Nixon did, Trump on the other hand is likely to fight tooth and nail to the bitter end.
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I will say it seems like Pence has just disappeared lately. Probably a smart move. Even if nothing comes of this, he’s keeping his name from having a negative connotation to the general population.
If all they get Trump on is obstruction, Pence is likely fine. Heck, Trump may well be fine, because I don’t think the GOP congressmen will go for impeachment at that alone. Not unless their voters (not just the voters, the ones in their districts that at least had some likelihood of voting for them) want it. Right now, Trump is still more popular than the representatives in some districts.
If they get any other shady business dealings with Russians (even if not collusion on election), it gets murkier. Pence could probably still come out clear if it’s just business issues. He was head of the transition team, though, and there’s the Flynn issue. What was he told? What did he know and when did he know it? That, of course, is dependent on how things turn out for Flynn.
Another consideration is the 2020 election; the Republicans would likely prefer to run an incumbent President Ryan rather than a President Pence. Ryan is much more electable, photogenic, not as Trump-tainted, probably more centrist, etc.