The left is screaming that the situation is on the edge of falling into total chaos while President Bush and the Iraqi head of state is saying things are going fine.
What I know for sure:
I see car bombings in the news almost daily.
U.S. troops are being killed.
What I don’t know:
If the people of Iraq are truly optimistic about a democratic Iraq.
If the bombings are not entirely uncommon but overall do not disturb the rebuilding of Iraq.
If the troops are working on an Iraq that has a possible democratic and free society or if they are stuck in a mess with no real end in sight.
I’m sure there are a few more things that could be added to each list.
So, where does Iraq stand at the moment and what is a likely situation it will face in the near future?
I think it’s a ridiculous question. I mean, what is the REAL situation in the US? That depends entirely on where you are and what your circumstances are. There were people who thought the 60s and early 70s were chaos in the US, and it was if you happened to be in South Central LA or the Bronx or the Democratic Convention in Chicago or on the campus of Kent State University. It all depends on your point of view. Outside observers tend to find whatever it is they’re looking for. Here’s an excerpt from a report by Chris Wallace in May:
In balance to Lib’s Free Republic article, it should be noted that for every heartwarming story of infrastructure being built, there is an example of that same infrastructure being destroyed by insurgents. It is difficult to see whether any progress is being made overall, and there is indeed a danger that Saddam’s brutal but stable rule might even come to be seen as the “good old days”.
As for democracy, well, the only majority consensus appears to be “Get the fuck out of our country”.
If you really want to know, I can recommend 2 good web logs to you. Blogs as they are otherwise known.
It takes as much interest as it takes to read a newspaper. One is from an academic with connections to the region. His speciality is the modern history of the Middle East. He has a lot of the less accessible facts to hand and updates daily.
The other is from a young and articulate Iraqi woman. She has an American education so her language is nearly flawless. She is kind of famous. Lately she hasn’t updated so often as electricity has been scarce and air conditioning a priority. It is worth reading into her archives as well. I like her, she’s terrific.
Lo and behold, he references an excellent recent BBC article about British controlled Basra, which has always been held up as an example of things “going OK” (bolding mine):
Find someone that has been there. Plenty of soldiers have returned from spending many months in Iraq. If you really want to know you have to find someone without an agenda. For every Jaun Cole there is an Ollie North saying the exact opposite. For every Riverbend blog there is Hamorabi saying something totally different. This is a big election issue Bush supporters will make it sound better than it is & Kerry supporters will make it sound worse.
Try finding some one inside Iraq to email & maybe they can give you the perspective you are looking for.
Sample polls has got nothing to do with democracy. Apparently these days a surprisingly large number of East-Germans (and West-Germans) think they had it better under the old regime, and tearing down the wall was all a big mistake. No doubt about it, lotsa people are stupid. Lotsa more people spew bullshit at pollers.
To balance Sentient’s balance. Nobody knows what goes on inside Iraq but if you want to read some of that not reported in Sentient’s meat (and seldom reported in the media) Chrenkoff has gathered some good news from Iraq in so far eleven instalments.
All of the sources in this thread say the same thing: that Iraq is better in some ways and worse in others. That there is investment and improvements in infrastructure and car bombs, kidnappings and lethal Allied force. That some cities are calm and quasi-democratic, and others are no-go areas under Sharia law outwith Allied control.
The question is surely: is it getting better, or worse?
Bombs are being launched in urban areas by US planes !
US soldiers are dying at 1-2 a day
Insurgent attacks are increasingly more numerous and bold
US elections are coming soon (political motivation too see things go wrong)
Neighboring countries have little to gain from a US controlled Iraq (aka “Free” Iraq)
It doesn’t paint a nice picture… even if some areas are more calm than others. I doubt the situation is getting better either… it might not be the impossible disaster many are making it too be… but I certainly don’t see it getting better. Staying on course to a failed plan doesn’t help.
I read a comment on an article that I find interesting too. Iraq had schools and infrastructure before, during and after Saddam. To claim X number of schools are setup and working or other facilities is claiming you rebuilt/fixed much that was not broken ? Even after the first Gulf War things were running back to normal quite quick… not this time around. Clear mismanagement.
I have seen the 100000 figure in the media quite a bit & I can see how people that read this may think things are very bad. This was if I am not mistaken during the last Sadr Militia uprising & during a firefight a soldier with a M16 (not sure what British soldiers use) on semiautomatic can shoot 45 rounds per minute & sustained firing of 12 rounds per minute. 250 soldiers can shoot 100000 rounds in
8 minutes on semiautomatic & 30 minutes of sustained firing. Obviously the British soldiers are still coming under fire & things are not that rosy but I wonder if the media throws numbers like this out there to scare people.
The New York Times produced a nice map showing action over the past month: 30 Days, 2368 attacks
There were over 990 attacks in Baghdad alone.
Countrywide, attacks included 272 RPG incidents, 40 vehicle bombs, and 799 home made bombs.
New York City had 440 felonious assaults last week, and 9 murders, 52 rapes, and 485 robberies. In the past 28 days, there’ve been 48 murders, 153 rapes, 1,907 robberies, 1,600 felonious assaults, and 3,830 grand larcenies.
And how many grenade/rocket attacks, mortar launches, tank shell firings, car bombs, Hellfire missile launches were there?
I appreciate what picture you’re trying to paint here, Lib, but Iraq is quite probably the most dangerous place in the world right now, for all the infrastructure and democratic institutions which are slowly being put in place.
I am an aid worker who has been in Iraq off and on since the end of the war. It is, in my opinion, trending towards total collapse and civil war. I believe the United States has created the conditions for Iraq to become a failed state.
Now, for the first time, Iraqis tell me they were better off under Saddam (and they don’t say this lightly). There was a predicatability and stability under Saddam that is completely gone, whereas they suffered under the tyrrany of a madman, now they suffer under the tyrrany of a thousand madmen.
Now, there are parts of the city that had always been quiet that are battle zones. US helicopters fire rockets into neighborhoods to kill one man on the ground firing at them and kill a dozen more people who had the misfortune to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Regions of the country that had been quiet are now ablaze with violence.
You’ll see pockets of stability (particularly in the north), but I think Iraq as a nation state is over.
