In your “facts” you left out the size of your house. However, assuming that your force air system is working properly and sized properly for your house, then your ground source heat pump will be the same approximate tonnage as the air conditioner that you’re replacing.
I live in Michigan. I had a Waterfurnace Premier installed to replace my 1984 model forced gas furnace and air conditioner. It is a 3.2 ton unit. The original air conditioner was a 3.5 ton unit.
I also opted for an auxiliary resistance backup heather. This is recommended, because you don’t want to oversize the heat pump (just as with air conditioning). If your engineer does the sizing right, it’ll only ever kick on on the very coldest days of the year.
I also opted for a desuperheater and an additional water storage tank. The desuperheater keeps the water in the storage tank (just an 50 gallon electric hot water tank not connected to electricity) hot, and feeds this water to my old gas heater as my demand drains it off. When the system is operating, it’s free hot water (little bit of current to run the desuperheater circulator pump).
My property is just shy of 0.5 acres, and the ground loop only took up about 1/3 of my back yard. If it breaks your heart to destroy your lawn the way I did (it’s coming back, though!), you could opt for the more expensive process of hiring a well digger and going vertical. It’s considerably more expensive. If you have a pond, that’s another installation location option. Or you could use an open loop system with your well water.
Oh, I also get the electricity for 1/2 price. That means that even ignoring everything else, it’s now only half the cost to cool the house in the summer as before. The real savings, though, are found in the natural gas. I don’t recall my savings (maybe I posted them here in GQ in another thread), other than they were significant. I currently have an $800 credit on my natural gas bill due to the reduced consumption, though. My average monthly electric bill (I do the average payment scheme) shot up from $78 to $97. Like I said, I’ve not looked at the figures since looking at my winter savings, and will do so later this year to look at summer savings. I think I will actually beat the expected payback, though!
Oh, yeah, it will use your existing forced air system, and make the baseboard heat obsolete. Another thing I like about my system (and I’m led to believe this is true of all high-efficiency systems in general), is that it doesn’t live up to the bad reputation of “forced air” systems that I’ve heard and experienced growing up. It has a variable speed motor, and the hot air isn’t as hot as all the old systems. It cycles longer to compensate, and thus avoids all of the hot-cold cycles that I was accustomed to. That also makes it quieter. That wasn’t something that I was expecting or even shopping for, but it was quite a pleasant bonus, and now I’m spoiled by it.
Cost? I looked at some high efficiency systems. I’ll just say I ended up somewhere between $10 and $20 grand, including the landscape repair. It was about 50% higher than the high-efficiency systems I was looking at. The payoff will be quicker, though, and within 6 years or so, I’ll be ahead.