What now for Ukraine

Politics & Elections
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181

This impression is not correct, and you shouldn’t substitute your opinions for actual fact.

Ukraine is important because it can & should be the impassable bulwark protecting the rest of Europe from Russian expansion. If it’s subsumed into the Russian Federation, then Russia is stronger, and all of Asia is at greater risk. It’s incredibly important to roll back Russian aggression wherever it manifests, and this would be true if it’s Lithuania or Latvia or Finland.

Pointing out who started the war isn’t victimhood, it’s simply an attempt to cut through the fog of confusion sown by Russia that goes like: “a war started, nobody knows how, but the only way to stop it is to legitimize Russian territory claims”. That’s bullshit. Russia took the iniative and invaded Ukraine. If we don’t push back against that, where will we push? Why do we take Russia’s story at face value?

Your rhetoric is buying directly into Russian propaganda. Nobody started it, it’s nobody’s fault, it’s pointless to resist the inevitability of the Russian bear, just give it what it wants and don’t bother it. This is intellectually lazy in addition to not being particularly brave.

What job are you talking about? Zelensky’s job was to meet with Trump. Every single person in that room knew there was no credible deal on offer. Everybody knew that whatever happened that day, Putin’s poodle Trump was going to find a reason to hang Zelensky out to dry. More than anything, everybody knows Trump’s deals are worthless.

Zelensky did his job. He made himself available to Trump and Vance. He got the best terms on offer (which was nothing). He showed the world in high-defnition color exactly what America was, and as a consequence Europe has rallied to his side.

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This.

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[ANALOGY]
We’re witnessing a sexual assault before our very eyes.

The US has just knocked the knife out of the hand of the woman and handed a pistol to the rapist.

I guess that’s one way to pursue a peaceful end to the horror unfolding before us in real-time :rolleyes:
[/ANALOGY]

I’m finding the current event (Trump pausing aid to Ukraine and evaluating the lifting of sanctions in place against Russia) utterly incomprehensible.

184

You are arguing against a position that isn’t mine. Also, you are assuming that, in my impression of Zelensky, I think he’s completely wrong. I don’t.

Yes, it’s useful to Europe as a buffer state.

100% agree. I said above that Putin is evil and shouldn’t have invaded Ukraine.

I have said all along that we should have supported Ukraine.

I have said nothing along these lines.

185

Incorrect. That was not the negotiating table. That was a press conference to present the deal, or at least where the deal currently stood.

This just makes no sense. If Zelensky himself knew there was no deal, then why did he participate in a press conference? No one was making him do that.

So Zelensky intended things to go as they did?!

186

It is amazing how quickly the propaganda works.

187

I am hoping that’s not the case and will criticize Trump accordingly if it is.

I don’t assume much based on Trump’s conciliatory moves toward Russia. We assume that, because Trump sucks, he is 100% manipulated by Putin; he’s “in the tank.” It is also possible that Trump is manipulating and using psychology on Putin. Time will tell.

188

If you are referring to me, that’s a gratuitous and lazy statement. I haven’t said a thing in favor of Putin or Russia, and I read and watch both Liberal and Conservative opinions on the topic daily. The easiest thing to do is relay everything anti-Trump because Trump does suck. Instead, I try to think for myself on each individual point.

189

Taking the bait would mean that he facilitated others intentions. I.e., that he was played and therefore failed in the situation.

190

There is really next to nothing positive to say about Putin but IMHO he is more intelligent than Trump. His education took place in the Intelligence service, Trump’s in shows and real estate deals. And he has a plan: he wants his USSR back. Trump wants the Nobel Prize and fame. I don’t think Trump is in a position to manipulate Putin.

191

And what does it mean then that ‘he took the bait with gusto’?
He was played with gusto? Hm.

192

It’s perfectly comprehensible if you assume that the POTUS is a Russian spy. Although an actual Russian spy would try to be more subtle.

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[ONE]
I’d like to offer up another analogy – this one created during the Mar-A-Lago stolen documents story:

Trump and his cult followers like to say that Trump was “negotiating” with the DoJ for the return of the documents wrongfully and illegally in his possession. For over a year.

If a guy across town steals your car, are you going to be okay with him “negotiating” for its prompt return? Will you settle on “He gets the car Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, while you – the car’s rightful owner – get it on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and weekends” ?

[TWO]

Every once in a while… every once in a while, there’s a day with an absolute right and an absolute wrong, but those days almost always include body counts.

–President Bartlet, “West Wing”

This one has an absolute right and an absolute wrong. It clearly involves body counts. The approach that Trump has taken – in the interregnum and thus far in his second Presidency – is truly incomprehensible. The ‘moral relativism’ that the right hammers the left with is nowhere as stark as it is in this situation and Trump’s approach to it.

Okay, ‘Russian asset’ is the least charitable explanation. Desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize is just short of that.

Perhaps the most charitable – as I have previously alluded – is Trump’s intellectually crippled approach to negotiations that forces him to see everything as “what’s the middle point of the two disparate positions … right now?”

[Trump just wants to split the baby and demands a Nobel Prize for ‘coming up with the idea.’ He is utterly devoid of the wisdom of King Solomon]

But it’s nigh unto impossible for me to conceive of people of decent information and good faith believing that Trump has come even remotely close to playing the role of honest broker in this calamity.

Every single call the referee made has inured to the benefit of just one team: Россия.

Even excluding this chapter, but considering everything else that we know about Trump (eg, The Ukraine phone call with Zelenskyy – blatant Bribery or Extortion (and not for the benefit of the country; just him), The Georgia election call with Brad Raffensperger (attempting to circumvent the mechanisms of Democracy) and other Georgia officials, January 6th and the “alternate slate of electors” scheme, The “Access Hollywood” tape, The Mar-A-Lago documents case, The 448-page, two-volume Mueller Report – not what Barr’s fictional version said, not what the Senate Republicans said, but the evidence – and the Senate Intel Report that followed) it’s incredibly difficult for me to imagine how somebody ascribes good faith to Trump’s motives – in this or in anything else.

But the extent to which I see people readily offering him the benefit of the doubt … mind-boggling.

194

Yep, I’ve seen several commentators back on the “4D chess” train.

It’s hopelessly naive, and I think it’s a bit of “If all you have is a hammer” thinking on the part of political analysis channels. They are used to giving their viewers a nuanced take and explaining the minutiae, because often seemingly simple transactions actually involve many experts weighing in and a lot of devil in the details.
And of course they don’t want to be seen to be taking “sides”.

But in the case of Trump, he’s an idiot (most of his opinions on anything are based on misconceptions), and he’s corrupt. The only real question in this case is what is the ratio of corrupt vs stupid?
Not calling a spade a spade is doing their viewers a disservice, and is part of how we got here.

195

Zelensky has released a statement laying out a way forward:

It’s a statement intended to mollify. Without apologising or admitting responsibility, he acknowledges that the White House meeting went wrong, says he wants to move forward with the process and reiterates his gratitude to the US.

We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.

Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.

Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively.

Aside from the diplomatic tone, points to note are;

  1. Concrete suggestions for next steps - an arial and naval truce, and release of prisoners.
  2. Willing to sign a minerals and security agreement immediately - emphasis on “and security”.

It does look like a) Zelensky does regret the way the WH meeting went and b) the freezing of current US aid did require him to be the first to make a move.

196

Personally, I don’t see 4D chess, but I do see Trump, when it comes to foreign policy, using the skill set he developed in real estate. I.e., putting together deals. And, in part, that skill set comprises things that aren’t ethical, such as intimidation, lying, misrepresenting, etc.

My guess is that Trump actually will get a deal together on this that includes the following:

  • A ceasefire.
  • Mineral rights for the US.
  • A return of minimal amount of territory to Ukraine.
  • Putin’s keeping of most of his territorial gains.
  • The return of prisoners and kidnapped children from Russia, though the latter will be a mess for years.
  • A wishy-washy security “guarantee” of some sort, just so it can be said that there is one.
  • Milestones for the reduction and eventual elimination of sanctions on Russia.

And that will be that. The war will be over. Yes, it’s “better” for Putin, but the only real option is for Ukraine to keep on fighting forever.

197

Unless the US lifts sanctions and begins actively supporting Russia with money and weapons (which I admit is now somewhat probable) - then indications are that Russia is unable to sustain the war past 2026. Ukraine presumably could if Europe kicks its support into high gear.

198

To be clear, the US has not contributed $350B in aid.

199

And much of that aid are actually weapons and munitions scheduled for destruction anyway. The US is probably saving money on some of this by not having to demil this surplus inventory.

Stranger

200

Trump and Vance set up this sham of a “deal”. Zelensky had to attend in order to demonstrate that he was available to talk.

[/quote]
So Zelensky intended things to go as they did?!
[/quote]
You’re confusing knowing with intention. They’re different things.

Every person in that room - Zelensky, Trump, and Vance - knew that no deal was going to happen that day, or any other day. Everybody knew Trump and Vance were going to offer a joke of a deal that Zelensky would be a fool to accept, in which Trump got a bunch of mineral rights, and Zelensky got a meaningless “security agreement” (because Trump doesn’t control Russia, it’s the other way around).

You’re taking the standard Russian propaganda line here - the Russian bear is big, bad, inevitable, it shouldn’t be poked, you have to give it what it wants, make unfavorable deals, or you’ll get WW3. That’s “just being realistic”. But it’s not actually realism, it’s capitulation presented as common sense, and this is why all the Russian mouthpieces are saying the same thing.