Trump just may do the unthinkable and announce in tomorrows SOTU that the US is leaving NATO.
You’re kidding? Zelenskyy had entered negotiations with Trump to turn over a huge amount of Ukraine’s mineral rights to the US in exchange for a peace deal with Russia. He’s even not rejected out of hand the idea of himself resigning as President. You think he’s unwilling to part with some Ukrainian territory if it means a lasting peace?
It’s that lasting part that’s the sticking point. Zelenskyy wants assurances. Assurances that Putin will not rebuild for a few years and the come back again. Assurances that giving up a third of Ukraine’s mineral rights isn’t just the price for the cease fire, and Trump then comes back for another chunk to guarantee the peace treaty. Followed by more when Putin breaks the deal.
It was what they wanted. They wanted to blow up the negotiation and try to make Zelenskyy look like the unreasonable party. And apparently, despite how contrived and fictitious and manipulated and one-sided the display was, you somehow bought it. You’re questioning Zelenskyy’s position and suggesting Trump and Vance might actually have been being reasonable in their goals. WTF?
Yes it is, Zelenskyy was clear that Putin already broke cease fire deals, already broke deals for prisoner exchanges. The Putin cannot be trusted. He wants security guarantees, i.e. commitments of more extensive defense from the US when Putin breaks the deal.
Trump and Vance were pushing back against the idea the Zelenskyy has a legitimate position and legitimate desire for Ukraininan security. They were pushing back against the idea that Ukraine has expressed gratitude to the US for assistance. They were pushing back against the idea that Putin is a liar. Listen to Trump’s tirade about how unfair Putin has been treated.
It’s absolutely crystal transparent. Trump wants to strongarm Zelenskyy into a peace deal that first and foremost extorts Ukraine for whatever wealth they have left that they will need to rebuild, assuming the war ever does end with a free Ukraine. He’s trying to look like a tough guy by bullying the victim in the fight, not the instigator. He’s trying to make “peace” for Putin on the greatest possible terms - for Putin, not Ukraine.
Trump thinks he will of he can cement “an end to the war”. Regardless of what Ukraine gives up.
And earn a Nobel Peace Prize for it.
It’s as if Trump personally identifies with Putin’s plight; how badly he has been treated by non-compliant media, how he’s been the victim of a ‘witch hunt’ of people who want to hold him accountable for war crimes and assassinations, how misunderstood he is in just wanting to rescue Ukrainians from being subjugated by “Nazis”. They are peas in a pod, soldiers in a foxhole, bosom buddies. I get the sense that Trump imagines the two of them involved in wacky hijinks, on the run from the media disguised as a saxophonist and bass player in an all-woman traveling orchestra.
Nobody’s perfect.
Stranger
But will they actually do anything meaningful, given that an increase in support is so unpopular among the populace?
It’s rather interesting that so many people in Europe think that Ukraine needs more western support, as long as someone else is doing it.
Perhaps polling has improved in the last few months since that poll was taken.
The European welfare state as we know it is probably going to get a reboot (not in a good way). Europe first needs energy security. Whatever they want to do in terms of militarization doesn’t mean shit if they don’t have the energy security to make it happen, and right now, they absolutely do not have it.
Closing down their nuclear plants probably wasn’t the best way to go about this. Though France, for their part, hasn’t done so and they still don’t support giving more to Ukraine.
Germany punched itself in the balls.
Truth is, if there’s any ‘transition’, it’s not going to be to wind, solar, or wave energy - not energy-dense enough. Nuclear’s the only way forward for EU, really.
It’s not either-or though. Renewables do have a number of advantages and should be part of the energy mix. But I would agree we can’t do net zero and rely only on renewables.
Agree with you: energy portfolio should be the aim.
Looking closer at that chart, the top question doesn’t match it’s headline. The actual poll question is, “Are the current measures against Russia and aid given to Ukraine enough to prevent a Russian victory?”
That question is an assessment of Ukraine’s ability to win, not opinion on whether the West needs to do more.
That difference in wording explains the graph discrepancies pretty well.
- “Can Ukraine win with what they are getting?” - No.
- “Should we give more?” - No.
Given that, the numbers for “enough, more than enough” match pretty well with “reduce levels”.
How would you react if your only other option was to accept Russian rule in your country? Live under Russian laws, being humiliated all the time for being Ukrainian or brainwashed into Russian culture? How would you react if you were not allowed to speak your mother tongue any more? I really cannot follow you in denying the importance of sovereignty and territory for Ukraine. Have you ever been in the shoes of somebody who was forced into cultural assimilation? I doubt it.
Though I despise Trump, my goal is to see him accurately and not make assumptions. Sure, he is the ultimate narcissist and wants to be seen and glorified as a great leader, peacemaker, etc. But he also, I believe, intuits that he has to get something done in order to receive that glory. While I think Trump has nothing to offer domestically because he simply has no interest in or vision for this area, I think Trump did show ability in foreign policy during his first term and might do so in his second. For better or worse, Trump is off the standard US foreign policy template of the past few decades. He might negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and that might be a good thing. (“Might” here means I truly don’t know.)
Right. Plus, there is the chance that Putin could die or be deposed and the next Russian government wants to interact with the world in a more amicable fashion (it’s hard to imagine it being worse). So stalling might be the right move.
Yes, it’s clear that Trump is a Putin fanboy, and his whining about the supposedly unfair treatment that he and Putin received together (“Russia Russia Russia”) was both disgraceful and unhinged. There’s no sugar-coating that.
I’m inclined to think, however, that Trump is not merely “in the tank” for Russia. The corollary to the proposal that Trump will sell out Ukraine for his own self-glory is that he will do the same to Russia. It also seems clear that he was trying to negotiate a mineral rights deal with Zelensky, in which context Trump was saying that Ukraine would have “the right to fight on.”
That’s why I say I don’t know what Trump’s intentions are.
Or Biden or Europe or both could have told Putin, “If you invade Ukraine, we will join the battle within Ukrainian territory.” That might have prevented the war in the first place. The fear of nuclear escalation would have applied to either strategy (joining the fight or providing bigger/better weapons right away). I’m agnostic on whether the thread of escalation was handled properly or not.
Right. I was thinking the same thing.
It’s not my “policy”; it’s basic game theory. And you are also right, and Genghis Khan is the perfect example of that. The risk one takes in being as ruthless as possible, however, is that everyone else can gang up on you and take you out: viz what happened to Germany and Japan in WWII.
I said above that Zelensky might minimally accept borders rolled back to 2022.
I’m not sure how assurances could be meaningful while Putin is still alive.
I’ve been studying the presser in reasonable detail. I think this article gets it right. It is kind neither to Trump/Vance nor Zelensky:
https://www.nationalreview.com/carnival-of-fools/the-ground-is-shifting-underneath-our-feet/
One reason it’s difficult to talk about Friday’s White House disaster is that people cannot even seem to agree on what happened that day. Was Zelensky “ambushed” by Trump and Vance, who had planned this public humiliation in advance? This seems to be the most common take from Trump’s opponents. (Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz labeled it “obviously a manufactured escalation.”) I don’t see that at all. I sat through all 50 minutes of the press conference — not just the explosive and viral clips from the ending of the meeting — and saw the same thing that the Washington Post’s Marc Thiessen and my editor Rich Lowry saw: a poorly advised (or perhaps incorrigible) Zelensky making a series of avoidable blunders for nearly 30 increasingly awkward minutes before Trump and Vance finally blow their stacks.
The simple fact is that Zelensky was arguing back at Vance about specific points while the cameras were rolling. I don’t excuse Trump’s and Vance’s reaction to Zelensky at all; it was a national embarrassment. But Zelensky was stupid to poke the bear. We also don’t know how Zelensky has been behaving behind closed doors. My impression is that the man is stubborn and frustrating to deal with. (The fact that Trump is despicable doesn’t make everyone who deals with him right and perfect.)
Ultimately, ISTM that the point of a peace deal is to end the death and destruction as well as the deleterious effects on the world economy. In the aggregate, it’s also the right thing to do. The US was not at fault and doesn’t owe Ukraine specifically. So it would be weird for Zelensky to say, “In order to have a peace deal, you need to promise to fight Russia if it attacks us again.” That makes no sense.
Again, my impression is that Zelensky has a sense of righteous entitlement: Ukraine is important, its sovereignty and territory have been violated, we are victims, and the world has to make it right. If my impression is correct, and Zelensky is making excessive demands along those lines, then it is understandable that Trump would get frustrated.
The mineral rights deal didn’t sound that unreasonable to me. As for “peace for Putin,” the problem is that Putin holds the territory he holds. Putin might be willing to give up a little bit a territory, more as a symbol of a concession than as a real concession, but he is not going to give up the heart of his gains. So yes, any peace deal made right now will automatically be pretty good for Putin. The other option is to continue a war that is killing a lot of people.
You are saying that these things are bad, and I agree. But attempting to prevent them by fighting back has cost Ukraine 400,000 people killed or injured. As to whether that was worth it or not, that’s a matter of opinion.
Russia lost 25 million people in WWII, but it could reasonably have expected Hitler to come in and kill everyone anyway. Putin wasn’t going to do that. So another strategy could have been not to resist, wait for Putin to die, and then try to recover sovereignty from a more reasonable regime eventually. I’m not saying that would have been the best option; it’s just something to think about.
And it’s rear-view mirror at this point. The question now is what cost to pay for what options going forward.
Have you ever lead a very important negotiation surrounded by your opponents in a language other than your mother tongue? It is very difficult to find the fine tuning in front of cameras in a hostile atmosphere. Trump and Vance are probably not even competent to utter a meaningful sentence in any other language than English. It is very easy to find fault in Zelensky neglecting the psychological situation in the Oval Office last Friday.
Is it worth to fight for your identity?
I’m hearing some commentators being critical of Zelensky walking away from the deal. But to be clear, it appears that the deal being offered was basically “all the minerals for jacksquat in return”.
Because remember Zelensky was rebuked for talking about security guaranteees. Well, if that’s not on the table, what is?
I think it goes back to Trump’s original idea; that the minerals are just paying America back for its supposed $350B in military aid.
Medvedev and his ilk is not any better than Putin. If you look who else is around to take over after Putin you might lose your hope. Regaining sovereignty after years of forced assimilation and brainwashing doesn’t look like a good perspective.
I’m a professional interpreter (Japanese), so, actually, yes. (I’ll never do legal interpretation again… it’s not fun.)
You have to come prepared to do the job. Zelensky’s job was to nod and smile for the cameras at that point. Even if we grant that Trump and Vance were setting him up, Zelensky took the bait with gusto. He fucked up.
With gusto? What could his intention have been to create such a situation intentionally?