How much a US president can impact the economy, especially within their first 4-year term, is the topic of many debates. When we consider all the factors and players that contribute to fiscal policy and the independence of those who determine monetary policy, probably not much. That said, now that we’re dealing with higher-than-desired inflation, many Trumpers are coming out of the woodwork to tell us how much the economy was better under Trump.
Even if ignore the fact that a president probably can’t control the economy in the near-term, what objectively was better with the US economy when Trump was president versus today, and also versus the 8 Obama years?
The reason I posted this in IMHO is that folks will invariably differ on what they consider to be “objective” criteria.
The ones I’ve been seeing lately have been circulating pictures of gas prices from mid-lockdown and saying “Look how much better we had it!”. Yes, a deadly plague is an acceptable price to pay for cheaper gas.
I would concede that Trump probably also played to his strengths, which is business. So he probably removed a lot of regulations and other impediments to business. Which is great if you don’t have to worry about anything else such as the environment, health care, education, infrastructure, income inequality, equal rights, social safety nets, and so on. And a lot of people don’t. At least not to the extent they want it to impact their job or standard of living.
But I also think Trump didn’t really have to “do” a lot of Presidenting until the COVID pandemic hit. I think he was content to just sign a bunch of executive orders to please his base and let the economy run on its own. And had COVID not happened, Trump probably would have been reelected and maybe just gone down in history as a weird but not particularly unsuccessful President.
He did manage to extend the streak of growth he inherited from Obama. I think his choice to increase deficit spending was a strategic mistake for the country, but it kept the growth going.
I think that the President has very limited ability to improve an economy singlehandedly. At the least, it is going to require legislation to do anything substantial.
OTOH, I do think that the President has a much greater ability to damage the economy singlehandedly. Trump was handed a healthy and growing economy, and I have to admit that I was surprised that he didn’t screw it up immediately.
If the economy = stock market(it doesn’t, but there are some who think it does), then some of the Republican acts did help with that. Reducing taxes on the wealthy and further subsidizing large corporations meant that they could do stock buybacks, raising the value of their stocks while enriching themselves. If you had a 401k or other investments, then you may have found yourself enjoying the gains that you got on paper, even though they were never realized as money in your pocket.
Of course, there are a lot of anti-Trumpers like me who want to bitch and gripe about how effectively losing my savings to this out of control inflation is objectively worse than while under Trump. I’m happy to say “Fuck Joe Biden” without disguising it, just as happily as I’m willing to say “Fuck Donald Trump.”
I think unemployment continued to fall under Trump compared to Obama, at least until the pandemic hit. So, until March, 2020, I think unemployment was objectively better under Trump than Obama.
I think that was used for some campaigns that tried to target minorities, and how great they had it under Trump with lower unemployment than Obama, right?
OP, are you talking about the end of the Obama administration compared to the pre-pandemic Trump administration? Because at the beginning of the Obama administration (2009), the economy was terrible, with high unemployment, wage pressure, terrible housing problems, everything. And, after the pandemic hit, the economy under the Trump administration was also terrible.
You can laugh, but that’s what he knows (as opposed to having deep insight into foreign policy or education reform). I’m not saying Trump is Jack Welch or Warren Buffett. But I’m sure he was probably enacting policy through a lens of “this agency costs business money” or “that regulation makes business more inconvenient”.
This article looks at the OP in much the same way I would – it breaks it down into economically important key metrics, and then provides 16 charts that show how things were under Barry O’Bama, and then under the CFSG.
It wasn’t paywalled for me:
I’d copy and paste all 16 charts, but … nah … I wouldn’t
ETA: Apologies. I got caught up in this article, and lost sight of the fact that it did not extend through the current administration.
I agree with this very much. Trump’s attack on regulations provided a very real basis for supporters to appreciate his accomplishments. Of course from my perspective - not so much.
Yes, although I think improvement during the course of the term I could be a factor. For the Trump years, it does get complicated due to the 8 months of pandemic before the election.
I think the economy in the first year of a president’s term is fairly attributable to their predecessor. It’s their budget, after all, and the economy is reacting to their fiscal policies, whereas replacing all of the appointed positions, enacting new directives, and passing laws takes time.
2021, I believe, tracks with this view. High inflation and supply issues should be expected when the economy is trying to rebound from being shuttered during a pandemic, and when a huge outlay of government spending followed a large tax cut.
What perplexes me, though, is how Trump supporters can say with a straight face “It’s not fair to judge him on the last year of his office.” (An actual quote).
Da fuck?!
Trump left office with the economy in the gutter.
The president’s job is to be a steward of the country and to guide it through its crises. It’s easy to praise him for not immediately fucking things up - given he was handed the reins of the government at a time of relative peace and prosperity - but it’s precisely when the unexpected catastrophe strikes that we need a President to perform. Those who would aspire to greatness should rise to the occasion.
I think of the presidency as like a baton race - the person in office inherits the country’s problems/issues, and then passes them on to their successor. I find it notable that Clinton handed off a country with a budget surplus, Bush handed off a country reeling from the Great Recession, Obama handed off a country with 6 sustained years of growth, and Trump handed off a country flailing through its pandemic response.
