I’m 24 so I have a pretty good run ahead of me (hopefully). Lately I’ve been wondering, what salient political issue will likely experince a significant shift in support sometime in the next 2, 3, or 4 decades?
I can’t see anything happening to abortion or gun control. Campaign finance and social security and that type of issue should get some attention, but that’s not the kind of issue I’m thinking about.
If I had to vote (and I’m no prognosticator, I thought Nader had it), I’d say Capital Punishment. While support is still strong (very strong in most states) for the Death Penalty, it is waning a bit. Studies are showing that if other options were available, the percentages of people supporting CP begins to drop (admittedly, not by much).
So there’s my prediction, within 30 years the Death Penalty will be abolished. Anyone else care to hazard a guess?
Major issue in the United States? From your post, I’m guessing that that’s what you mean.
I predict that state-sanctioned same-sex partnerships will become legal in the United States, giving same-sex partners the rights and duties accorded male-female marriages. Same-sex partnerships are an established fact in several countries in the EU (granted, marriages have more rights than the domestic partnerships), and there’s a workaround in Vermont. With luck, that’ll be less than 20 years away, so I should be around to see it.
I think there’s going to be a big problem with water in the southwest, But then I’ve thought that for the past fifteen years and Vegas builds bigger fountains.
I expect to see a lot of things loosening up in my lifetime in the US. I think most states will eventually allow same-sex marriages and such. I’m also betting a lot of states will legalize medical marijuana over the next couple of decades, which is a good step in the right direction.
I don’t know if our country is going to become much more libertarian-minded in my lifetime. I’m hoping to see rediculous laws on drug use, prostitution, etc. banished. I’m not holding my breath.
technically it’s not politics but what was dessert storm about?
some sources predict running out in 30 years. what will that do to the airline industry? what will that do to the tourist industry? what will happen to real estate values in suburbs designed to depend on cars?
This has been happening for some time now, but the pace is increasing exponentially to the point where it can be called a qualitative change: I think you can look forward to an ever-strengthening sense of Earth being a single community, rather than a set of separate nations. Communication and transportation links, as well as business operations, are quickly expanding globally and making it constantly harder to pretend that the rest of the world is really none of our business. I think you’ll see the continuing recedence of racism and nationalism, human exploitation of all forms, and growing recognition and acceptance of our responsibility to protect our planet for the future.
Or I could just be a Pollyannaish nutbag. Take your pick. It’s been a long day.
Have to disagree with you, slacker,but I suggest the abortion debate may significantly “change” given improvements in contraceptives. The present morning after pill and RU-486 are mere hints of what tomorrow’s technology will bring.
I think we’ll witness the breaking up of nation-states into smaller and smaller units. I’m not sure this contradicts Elvis’s contention of an emerging one-world, because a strengthening of transnational and supranational governing bodies can paradoxically assist fledgling nations to break free: witness the independence of East Timor facilitated by the U.N., or the increasing support for devolution of Scotland, Wallonia, etc. under the aegis of the European Union. These statelets could be nominally independent but at the same time reliant on the larger institutions.
It’s been suggested that the number of independent countries could zoom from the present two hundred to about three hundred within a few decades. Indonesia, Russia, even Canada are ripe to splinter within thirty or forty years, maybe sooner.
The conflict scratch1300 has pointed out is known in scholarly circles as “Jihad vs. McWorld.” A pretty good book by Benjamin Barber of the same title speaks on it rather well. It was one of the few books I had to read for my since-dropped major that I truly enjoyed.
In the U.S., gay rights appears to have the most momentum for change. I worry, though, that at some point it could become as contentious as the Civil Rights Movement was in the late 1960s. Good results with a painful struggle preceding it. I see lots of changes on the health care front, too. Not to the point of socialization, but I don’t think Americans will let the HMO system exist for much longer.
Internationally, Europe will continue to move toward becoming a single political entity, despite cries from nationalist factions. I don’t know if anything else is certain though.
Oh yeah… totalitarian communism… kiss it goodbye for good. The next struggle could be laissez-faire democracy vs. democratic socialism.
I would throw America, China and India into that mix.
For my part I’ll throw in energy. I think we will finally get Fusion in our life time. Hopefully we will all get flying skateboards at the same time:)
Controlled fusion will radically change society. Practically free power will raise our standard of living significantly, it will also do away with water shortages (all the oceans shall be ours to drink).
I’m a little confused about how fusion will end the water shortage. I was always under the impression that we will mine the oceans for tritium and deuterium which exist in large quantities… but desalination isn’t necessary to do this, is it? How will removing the heavy isotopes of hydrogen from seawater make it potable?
Oh, and I guess I’ll have to throw my two cents in… aw hell, I’m going to take the easy way out and agree with you and Freedom on fusion.
I think the reasoning for that goes along the lines of desalinization = huge energy cost. Expensive energy = huge cost = impractical at a large scale.
Fusion = cheap energy = realistic desalinization costs = use all you want
Fusion energy ain’t all roses, though. Current solutions look to have their own “toxic waste” threat, as the container buildings for such a reactor will be continually sleeted by high-energy particles. It’s not perfect, but it’s got a huge potential waste-to-energy ratio, without the evil (and somewhat well-deserved) reputation that fission energy has.