I disagree completely. Although I hate it (the hardcore Bakunin-ite that I am), I think that we are going to witness the creation of huge alliances a la the EU. This might lead to another Great War, where half of Europe was aligned against the other.
That’s my prediction and I’m stickin’ to it
Oh, yeah. And globalization will destroy all culture as we know. Peace out.
You are aware, aren’t you, that neither of these is a contraceptive (nor is the Birth Control Pill)? I do agree that abortion will be a major issue, as non-contraceptive birth control methods reach forward closer to birth, and viability reaches closer back towards conception. Once these two meet, and it becomes possible to take a pill that kills a viable fetus, there are going to be some major political battles.
SNenc
I believe those fears are ill founded. Anyone who thinks that modern treatment of gays is comperable to treatment of blacks during the sixties is almost crtainly not a black who was alive during the sixties. Gay pride marchers are not routinely beaten. Gays are not assaulted on their way to vote. During the sixties, the civil rights movement was basically a struggle for power. Today, gays are not asking for power, but for acceptance.
Mars Horizon
You mean like US president? Or the brother of that president, who is now running for the presidential nomination? Or a major civil rights figure?
I don’t think those would be “major shifts”. In fact, for the most part they already exist.
PunditLisa
If I walk into a restaurant and start shooting people, just what DNA evidence would I leave behind, and how will it be more convincing than eye witnesses?
I think that the Internet is going to be a major political issue, and a lot of the political confrotations are going to involve more than just one country. The recent court case between Yahoo! and France is just the beginning.
Freedom2: a colleague of mine at work pointed this out and gave me an article about last-minute stuff like this logging thing that presidents can do and that the new president coming in has a very hard time undoing, because to do so requires going through the whole rules-making procedure, with public hearings and all that. In this case, I happen to like the result, but not being an end-justifies-the-means kind of guy, I really don’t like the idea that the President can do this kind of thing at the end of his term. But I can’t think of a simple way to prevent it short of maybe a Constitutional amendment that would prohibit any new initiatives between the election and the inauguration. Even that wouldn’t help much, since during the last stages of an election everyone’s focus is on the campaign, so that the sitting Prez can still use this fog to sneak all kinds of things through.
Ryan, thanks for pointing out my incorrect word choice made in haste.
I also appreciate the continuum you set up,
I’ll have to do a little more thinking on that one. I was surprised my initial comment drew so little respose (read none until you). I guess abortion just isn’t as controversial anymore. (joke)
Good point. Some of America’s longstanding debates may be rendered obsolete by new technology. We’ll stop fighting over abortion when almost no one needs one. We may stop fighting over gun rights if anyone who wants a gun for protection can buy a cheap stungun (think Star Trek phaser, but no kill setting; stun only). Or will govt try to outlaw stunguns?
No doubt whatever improved contraceptive methods make unplanned pregnancies obsolete will themselves be controversial. The thing is, abortion is an easy target. The woman or girl has to go to a clinic or hospital. It’s not too hard to persuade people that what’s being aborted is “almost a baby”.
One reason the anti-abortion people worked so hard to keep RU-486 unavailable was that it’s much harder to fight. It can be dispensed by any doctor; no clinc to picket. And it’s harder to get the public upset about halting a pregnancy when it’s done that early.
Remember the IUD? Some said it wasn’t really contraception; that fertilized ova were being aborted. But they were not sucessful in getting the public to see it as being the same as a surgical proceedure performed at 12 weeks gestation.
I think that the new methods that I hope are in the pipeline will be objected to by too small a minority to be stopped.
Okay folks it’s been 20 years on these predictions, How are we doing?
fairly accurate for some.
gay marriage is, legal in all 50 states. weed decriminalization is growing. mass shooting happen but no gun control.
I guess nobody saw the rise of fascism, Islamic terrorism, etc.
I think over the coming decades, universal Healthcare may happen.
I found this to be remarkably prophetic:
Remember, these predictions were posted in January 2001. Less than a year later, in September 2001, the Twin Towers were attacked. It wasn’t chemical, nuclear, or biological; but it was definitely an attack, resulting in catastrophe.
Yeah, this is a pretty good assessment, the predictions in there weren’t too bad. I was surprised that so few mentioned UHC but even now a more modern and efficient system seems like a radical idea to so many Americans. I agree that this issue will ultimately be solved because we can’t afford for it not to and it will be our own form of UHC. Please save the country, young people.
The fusion predictions were amusing in a “fusion is always 20 years away” way but the fact remains that we have made serious progress in that arena and many more capable people are working on the technology than were in 2001. We still may be 20 (or more) years away but I believe it will happen and that it will be a global game changer. But I’m 67, maybe not in my lifetime.
Wow, what a thread to look back on from twenty years later! On the question of which major issue has changed most, the answer is undoubtedly same sex marriage. For years after this thread was started, conservatives were successfully pushing SSM bans in states (including California!). But since Obergefell, the issue has all but disappeared from political conversation. I’m sure there’s still a few cranks out there, but it seems like the vast majority of American simply shrugged and said, “This is fine.”
The debate over whether nations would splinter or move toward ever closer union seems to be a draw. There have been very few instances of successful secession from a nation-state over the last 20 years – Kosovo and Southern Sudan come to mind. Other feared crack-ups in Russia, China, India, etc. haven’t come to pass. But trans-national institutions have had a tough time of it. NATO, the EU, WTO and UN have all seen their authority and prestige under serious attack.
Alas . . .