there are maybe 260 million Americans over age 16, with maybe another 70 million age 1-15.
I’ve heard that about 160 million Americans are expected to get vaccinated. I think as of right now about 130-140 million have had either one or both doses already.
Supposedly children don’t spread the virus as much
with the elderly aren’t vaccine rates close to 75-80% now?
will vaccine rates drop dramatically when about 160 million get it, what have other people read?
what stops the other ~100 million? I know some will reject it for political reasons, but I doubt they make up 100 million people, probably more like 30 million or so.
would gift cards like they give with flu vaccines help out? some people say they only get a flu vaccine for the gift card. maybe note stores should offer discounts or rewards for having a vaccine card like Krispy Kreme.
is the two shot regimen too onerous for some people? would offering single shot vaccines appointment free in places people go anyway (restaurants, grocery stores, etc) increase the rates?
what about shut ins who don’t want to travel, are there plans to send people to their homes to vaccinate them?
what plans are there when we hit the ceiling on the roughly 160 million people willing to make an appointment to get the vaccine, to try to reach some of the remaining ~100 million unvaccinated adults?
I’m wondering with the right outreach efforts and incentives if we can hit 200-220 million total excluding kids 15 and under.
I think all of those are good ideas. I haven’t heard plans for them yet, but I hope they do them. I also think there should be ongoing tracking of the percentage of new cases, and percentage of deaths that are unvaccinated people. Maybe showing clearly that most people who are getting Covid, and who are dying, are unvaccinated will help.
I also think at some point soon there will need to be restrictions on what unvaccinated people can do.
I also think kids will soon be able to get vaccinated, so there will be an increase there as lots of parents (like me) can’t wait to get their kids vaccinated.
A web search on “promotions for vaccines” will turn up more.
I believe that there haven’t been enough public service ads. I’m not sure which might be better, soft sell ads with the theme of “everyone can enjoy life after activation”, encouragement such as “the brave get vaccinated”, or scare ads like “here is a recording of an actual Covid patient fighting for breath.”
It took about 12 hours for Krispy Kreme to backpedal on that and say that of course anyone could get free donuts too if they didn’t want to be vaccinated. Agonizing and deeply personal decision that this is. The baying horde of nutbags ensured that would happen.
KK sorta hedged their bets. Vaccinated people can get free donuts every day. Unvaccinated people can only get their free donuts on Mondays.
So the message for the rest of us is clear. Do NOT go to Krispy Kreme on Monday; most everyone in there will be a potential COVID-carrying vaccine protester.
I removed a sentence or two that was not QZ-appropriate material.
In Canada, the biggest current obstacle to vaccination is supply. There were initial concerns that economic factors causing higher rates might lead to problems, but these areas have been prioritized, though many quibble about the rollout strategy.
In the US, the biggest current obstacle to vaccination seems to be political views. This remains puzzling to many Canadians, who are grateful that this pandemic was largely not treated as a political issue by the usual suspects.
My guesses? 15% in Canada and 30% in the US would choose not to vaccinate unless obliged to do so. But these are guesses.
The Economist recommended countries hedge their bets by making deals with multiple vaccine makers, some of whom might not be successful. Canada took this to heart and acquired many vaccine doses per person, more than any other country I know of.
The deals Canada signed are confidential. It is possible countries signed one of two types of deals. The wording in one might ask vaccine makers to endeavour to supply doses in a reasonable and timely manner. A separate deal Canada signed with one producer was published and uses similar language. In another type of deal, vaccine makers must supply vaccines unless impossible to do so due to a specified type of massive problem or face large penalties.
CBS just released the results of a poll that puts some numbers around this. In their poll:
60% of American adults are planning to get the vaccine (or already have)
18% say “maybe”
22% say they will not
Among those in the “maybe” or “no” camp (it appears that multiple responses were allowed to this question):
53% feel “it’s still too untested - wait and see”
40% are worried about side effects
36% are concerned about the news regarding blood clots
35% say that they don’t trust the government
And, the Washington Post’s tracker indicates that, currently, 51.9% of Americans age 16+ (and 41.8% of the total population) have received at least one vaccine dose.
Also, over the past few days, the news has indicated that, in a number of locations in the U.S., supply of vaccines is finally starting to outpace demand. In the Chicago area, we suddenly, over the past week, went from “it’s challenging to get an appointment” to “walk-ins are now encouraged.”
Given all of this, I suspect that we will top out at somewhere around 60-65% of 16+ getting the vaccine. Beyond that, there’s probably not a lot that focused outreach to get the shots to people can do – the OP mentioned shut-ins who won’t travel, and I also suspect that those in rural areas haven’t had as much access yet, but I would suspect that the number of people in those groups, who want the vaccine, isn’t all that high in the absolute, and a concerted effort to get the shots to them won’t add more than a couple percent, max, to the total.
Otherwise, the remaining unvaccinated are going to be in the camps of:
I don’t trust the vaccines because I think that they were rushed through development
I’m worried about side effects
I don’t trust the government
COVID is a hoax
I don’t trust vaccines, period
Education, outreach, and time will help to bring in some of the first two groups, but for the final three, there’s probably nothing that will.
If the big and small business wings of the Republican party came out in full-throated support of vaccination as the patriotic way to get the economy moving again and restore the freedom to not worry, that would make a big dent in all 5 groups. Since it’s a darn good bet a lot of the people claiming group 1 or 2 are fibbing, or are at least being encouraged in those views by the folks and media outlets invested in groups 3-5.
This article is about some of the efforts starting up to get reluctant people to get vaccinated.
The white house is calling it the ground game, analogous to get out the vote efforts. It mentions urging employers to give fully paid time off for getting the shot and dealing with side effects (with some federal reimbursement for employers). And sending people door to door, and targeted outreach.
One very important shift, I think, will be to leverage the fact that most people trust their own doctor. In Alabama, doctors are being urged to record a video explaining why folks should get vaccinated, and then to send it to their patients. There are plans to start having vaccine available so that people can get the shot at their doctor’s office, so it can just be a thing the doctor brings up at a visit and gets done right then.
Another article mentions that hesitancy has declined. I think a good portion of the people in the groups that are worried about safety are sincere, and that those numbers will decline over time.
Some of the reluctants will get vaccinated if made mandatory for certain jobs, workplaces or travel to other countries. But I stand by my 15% (Canada) and 30% (US) guesstimates who do not.
on that subject, I wonder if one reason for vaccine hesitancy is fear of being forced to go back to the office instead of being allowed to continue to work from home.
several people I know personally have gotten their vaccine but they are secretive about it for fear management will make them go back to the office and they want to continue to work from home.