25 mins. But extremely informative. He describes the fast moving Ranger units.
Russia is completely off balance for now.
Yup, for sure. Or a diversion. My wife and I play a lot of chess, 4 games last night. I taught her about 5 years ago.
I explained that you can bluff in chess, and sacrifice important pieces for that one winning move. I mean who’s not gonna take a free queen or rook. And then wham. Game over.
I wish Ukraine the the very best, and think this will work to their advantage. It seems they caught Russia a bit flat footed, and they have to change some plans. That’s always good.
Another brief summary and update.
here is ISW’s late yesterday’s take on it:
Key Takeaways:
- Russian sources claimed on August 9 that Ukrainian forces advanced further east in Kursk Oblast but are likely no longer operating as far north or as far west as Russian sources previously claimed on August 8.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian military convoy east of Rylsk near Oktyabrskoye, Kursk Oblast.
- *The Russian military command appears to be relying on existing units deployed to the international border area and readily available forces in the rear, most of which are units staffed with conscripts and irregular forces, to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
- These units would likely be the first to respond even if the Russian military command has decided to transfer additional, more experienced units from elsewhere in the theater.
- The Russian military command may currently be resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces from other operational directions to prevent the Ukrainian incursion from disrupting Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
- The Russian military command may currently be transferring more experienced and better-provisioned frontline units from eastern or southern Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, but it would likely take additional time for such units to arrive in Kursk Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces conducted strikes against a Russian military airfield in Lipetsk Oblast and other Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and Donetsk Oblast on August 9.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to posture itself as providing sufficient medical care to Russian servicemembers.
(italics mine)
the whole “nobody’s gonna tell Putin the straight dope” might actually work in favor for the UKRs, as high command might still underestimate the severity of the situation …
well a man can dream…
I think there’s also a big component of “they could invade us anywhere!” involved. Prior to this, the Russians were complacent in thinking they held the initiative, and that the Ukrainians were doing nothing but reacting to them.
Now the shoe’s on the other foot, and the Russians are doing the reacting and the considering where else they may have to react.
What I’m trying to figure out is why they’re attacking where they did; they’re up northwest of Kharkiv and north of Sumy. It’s clearly a Russian weak spot, but it’s also doesn’t put them in a position to flank or do anything to Russian forces further east near Kharkiv or Luhansk oblast.
Maybe it’s a purely diversionary attack meant to make the Russians fortify the whole border and take some pressure off of the rest of the front…
This is certainly a part of it.
I’d also assume that they are going after some infrastructure in this particular area that is essential to supplying the Russian forces in occupied Ukraine.
This is the first indication of Ukraine’s strategy.
It could work if Ukraine can send troops into other border regions of Russia.
Guardian live feed
Reports that Russian cadets are being sent to Kursk. Shades of VMI at New Market. Cadets sent by Russia to war against Ukraine - Details | RBC-Ukraine
The Kursk WW2 museums and memorials need to be razed; those hold symbolic and historical meaning for Russia.
You misspelled “Looted and taken to Kyiv”.
That would be a war crime.
When Protectors Become Perpetrators: The Complexity of State Destruction of Cultural Heritage - IPI Global Observatory.
Ryan McBeth has a good video framed around dispelling lies and misinformation coming from “Breaking Points.”
His thought – the counter attack is meant to force a Russian general call-up and that will be hugely unpopular in Russia and may destabilize Putin’s power.
Once again you demonstrate an astonishing capacity for not understanding that wars end. And then you have to manage the resulting peace.
Scorched-earthing a populace for the sins of their elite who took power at the point of a gun is how you create endless ethnic wars a la the Middle East.
Agree. Let’s not have them do that.
I heard a report that Ukraine is taking Russian soldiers as hostages, likely in an effort to have a prisoner exchange. Maybe they took notice of how easy Russia is to negotiate with in terms of a trade. However, it looks like both Ukraine and Russia are surprised at how easy and long-lasting this raid has been.
Slight nitpick, if they are Russian military, then they are legitimate prisoners of war, not hostages. There have been other prisoner exchanges in this war, as you note.
What is astounding is that Ukraine apparently is following the same route as Prigozhin used in his weird coup/not a coup march on Moscow. The Russians apparently didn’t make many changes to their border security after that incident.
Nothing revolutionary in this summation, but based on what milbloggers of various stripes are saying, the Kursk action serves multiple strategic purposes:
- Diverts more combat capable troops from other places
- “general friction” by this, I mean all war expends energy. By forcing one’s opponent to divert forces, shift supply lines, create new plans, expend materiel, etc. Ukr. increases disproportion friction on Russia through this action
- Forces Rosgvardia units to fight. The vast majority of which are comprised of 18-20 year old conscripts who are the most poorly trained, poorly equipped and poorly motivated that Russia has, as most of them are there simply there to serve their mandatory service time. Lots of these kids are from political power centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Mothers of Russia may well repeat what they did with Afghanistan if too many become casualties or prisoners.
- Use captured land in Kursk as a bargaining chip at future peace talks
- Destabilize Russia internally. So far it doesn’t look like Heroes of the Soviet Union are stepping forward to sacrifice themselves against the invading Nazis. In fact, the Russians they’ve encountered have been surrendering rather quickly and in higher proportions than anticipated.
- Morale boost for Ukrainians. Simply imposing strategic surprise on Russia serves this purpose, even if they promptly withdraw.
Good list. To which I might add …
Proving to the Europeans and even more the Americans that ground combat on Russian soil and taking and holding Russian territory does not immediately lead to nuclear escalation. Wherever that red line is, it’s not at the border.
The enemy? Attacking an undefended target? In the middle of open hostilities? Such a thing has never been heard of before! You might as well tell me the front fell off!
Well, they did arrange for Prigozhin to take an especially high dive, and since then Wagner hasn’t invaded Russia even once. Not near Kursk and nowhere else either. So there.
From the Russian POV that sure beats reinforcing the border with thousands of troops. Economy of force is a wonderful thing. Until it isn’t.
Zelensky: don’t accept any free plane rides from the Russians.