Anti-government demonstrations in Iran suggest that the current regime is in trouble.
[ul][]Will the Mullahs be overthrown? []Will a democratic government with real power be established? []Will a military leader conquer the country and rule as a dictatorship? []Will the Mullahs overcome this “second revolution” and retain power? Will they share power with the elected lay government?[/ul]
Once again, those nasty student protestors are stirring up trouble. I cannot predict the future, only cheer from the sidelines and hope thier courage and optimism can outlast the Forces of Darkness.
Hooray for the hippies! We were right then, we’re right now!
We stand ready to welcome Brother december into our ranks! Freak freely, bro! Here’s your beads, perhaps this pachouli can cover up that Old Spice. No, no, you inhale from this end.
Far out.
I expect those protesting for greater freedom will be ground to dust under the heels of the powers that be in Iran. Of course, that will result in the diminution of the middle-class, and the loss of talent for future scientists, engineers, and those people who will know how things work. But the mullahs will care about that not one whit.
The mullahs have the guns, & the secret police.
The kids have optimism, & thrown rocks.
Bush’s Cold War Stooges won’t be quite able to grasp that “student radical” does not equal “communist insurgent”. So, forget about US aid.
Actually - you huys might want to take the trouble and read http://www.iran-daily.com. All in English, but it’s pdf’s so might take a while.
It’s always fascinating to read about this part of the world from a very diferent perspective.
Well yes. The reformist President Khatami (his official page is herewas first elected in May 1997 and survives. So far he has managed to keep the pressure on the clerics without huge turmoil - an impressive political feat. It remains a delicate struggle.
This is excellent news. Though who knows if it’ll go Tiananmen or Belgrade…
So did the Shah. Fingers crossed.
they would hit the foreign aid lotto. U.S. companies would love to go back to Iran and if the new government was a democracy the United States would send even more money
Actually, I think U.S. aid could be counterproductive. If the U.S. were seen to be supporting the reformers, it could strengthen the mullahs’ hand. Our history of meddling in these kinds of situations is not exactly heartening.
Especially considering that it was the US who overthrew the democratically elected government of Mossadeq in 1953 and installed the shah as sole authorithy, whose reign was characterised by some of the biggest human rights violations the world has ever seen. I don’t think anyone in Iran has much reason to trust the US. I’m not a crazy anti-American here, I’m just saying I think they have reasons to look elsewhere for help.
UnuMondo
Call to Demonstrate on Azar 16 [December 7] Let’s see how many people show up tomorrow.
BTW, according to the Wall St. Journal, the most popular television program in Iran is Baywatch.
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1039128720676589793,00.html?mod=opinion (requires paid subscription)
UnuMundo, one must be careful with superlatives. Alleging that the evil that was the Shah’s reign committed “some of the biggest human rights violations the world has ever seen,” belittles such horrors as the Holocaust, the Armenian genocide, the Rwanda genocide, the Killing Fields of Cambodia, the Rape of Nanking and the Chinese occupation of China, the Soviet Stalin-induced famine of the 1930s, the Cultural Revolution, Stalin’s purges, and so on and so on. And all that just in the 20th Century. If one wished to quanitify human rights violators, the Shah probably would probably barely make it into the top 50 of the 20th Century, and would be listed under “other” on the all-time list.
The Shah should have been hung from the highest yardarm, but it is a disservice to the memory of the atrocities I mentioned to include the Shah in the list. Horrible as it is to say, the Shah and SAVAK were rank amateurs.
Sua
They occupied China??
I doubt it. Consider the source of most of the protest comes from.
40% of Iran’s population falls in the 15-40 age range, and less than half of them have jobs. The regime only counts the men: 1.5 million women enter the job market every year with absolutely no prospects for finding employment. Almost all of the men and many of the women are highly educated, and are well aware of westernization and liberalization, for either they remember some of the benefits of the Shah’s regime or their parents do. Not only do they bear witness to falling GDP and infrastructural ruin, many remember what it’s like to be able to be permitted to talk to young people of the opposite sex in public.
Importation of foreign capital is just about the only chance Iran has of rebuilding it’s economy and employing millions of restless, educated youth. Despite the US’ somewhat checkered history in the Persian Gulf, I see no reason that offers of US aid will turn heretofore reformers or even neutrals over to the mullahs.
An anecdote which illustrates ** Maeglin’s ** regarding the chasm between the mullahs and the youth:
An Iranian friend of mine returned to Iran last year after leaving for Britain in 1979, when he was about 7. He went to a party, arranged by mobile phone. Everyone was pissed stupid, smoking * opium * and, eventually, knobbing each other while my friend stood with his brother in the kitchen, mouth open. People said " You must do this all the time in Europe yes?" and when he went “What? No!” they thought he was joking.